AFL run home: Five clubs still in race for top four spot
WITH three rounds remaining there are five clubs still in contention to finish in the top four. One team will be unlucky to miss out. CHAMPION DATA PREDICTIONS
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FIVE into four doesn’t go.
With three rounds remaining there are five clubs — Hawthorn, Sydney, Adelaide, Greater Western Sydney and Geelong — still in contention to finish in the top four.
One team will be desperately unlucky to miss out on the double chance with Hawthorn now just one game clear on top and percentage separating second to fifth.
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Despite winning over the weekend, the Giants dropped from second to fourth and Geelong fourth to fifth, while Adelaide jumped three spots into third on the back of a massive 138-point win over Brisbane.
Sydney was another big winner, climbing to second after Saturday’s 67-point victory over Port Adelaide.
Geelong coach Chris Scott was ruing a squandered opportunity to gain valuable percentage against Essendon but Champion Data predicts the Cats will regain their spot in the top four by the end of Round 23.
Champion Data rates Hawthorn, Sydney and Geelong a 77 per cent chance of securing a top-four berth, ahead of Adelaide (75 per cent) and GWS (73 per cent).
The Cats have the easiest run home of the top five teams, with no games against top eight rivals, with the Giants have the toughest with two of their last three games against West Coast and North Melbourne.
None of the top five play against each other.
Hawthorn has the lowest percentage of the top five sides and is still in danger of being pushed out of the top four, but Champion Data expects the Hawks to secure the minor premiership ahead of Sydney.
North Melbourne supporters can sleep easy, the mathematical odds of St Kilda pushing the Kangaroos out of the eight is near impossible, says Champion Data.
Essendon is still favourite to claim the wooden spoon with the Bombers a 76 per cent chance of doing so and Brisbane at 24 per cent.
Originally published as AFL run home: Five clubs still in race for top four spot
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