Trade grades: KFC SuperCoach experts reveal their trades, rate the biggest moves of Round 7
See who’s in and who’s out of our KFC SuperCoach experts’ teams this week, including a big change of plans.
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This could be the biggest trading week in KFC SuperCoach history.
With stars struck down by injury, rookies ready to cash in and bargains presenting themselves across the field, decisions made this week will define our 2021 KFC SuperCoach seasons.
Experts Al Paton, Tim Michell, Dan Batten and The Phantom reveal their trades and rate the most popular trades for Round 7.
TIM MICHELL
Josh Dunkley to Clayton Oliver via Anthony Scott DPP, second trade depedent on teams
Oliver has a break even of 122 so I could afford to wait another week, but I’ve been targeting Melbourne’s game against North Melbourne for weeks as the round to finally bring him in. Hindsight is a beautiful thing and starting Oliver over Lachie Neale would have been an inspired move.
Oliver is an incredible bargain at under $600k — thank you Matt de Boer — and as a KFC SuperCoach who values reliability highly I can’t wait to bring him in. I’m surprised to see he’s in only 25 per cent of teams.
I’d love to give you a second trade now but I’d be lying if I said I knew what I was doing. I’m not sold on Steele Sidebottom, who has a bad Round 14 bye, and am about $1000 off trading Errol Gulden to Dayne Zorko. Shai Bolton and Andrew Brayshaw are also in the mix but I feel like I’ve been trying to talk myself into that pair this week and that’s never a good sign. Who needs forwards, right?
TRADE GUIDE: STATS GURU RATES DUNKLEY, NEALE REPLACEMENTS
AL PATON
Josh Dunkley to Dayne Zorko, Errol Gulden to Christian Petracca
Sanity has prevailed. An all-star midfield featuring Petracca and Marcus Bontempelli looked great for a while but left my forward line (even more) horribly exposed and limited my path to future premiums.
This move leaves me $211k in the bank to potentially go straight from Heath Chapman to Steven May next week, getting another rookie off the field which is possibly more important than agonising over which replacement will average 105 or 110.
Zorko has had an OK start to the year, averaging 94, but is capable of a 105-plus return from here expecially with Lachie Neale leaving a big hole in the Lions midfield. At $485k he’s worth the punt.
I lost a bit of ground last week by making two rookie downgrades (Rhyan Mansell and Finlay Macrae) but hopefully I can make a move over the next 2-3 weeks with that cash allowing me to upgrade Gulden to a superstar — Petracca was selected narrowly over Clayton Oliver due to his explosive scoring potential over Melbourne’s mouth-watering next month — and the ability to grab another premo with one trade next week.
Having said that, I did really like the idea of swapping Dunkley to Travis Boak, who is great value at $555k, then he became the latest victim of the KFC SuperCoach injury curse when Port Adelaide announced he will miss this week with a quad injury.
DAN BATTEN
Josh Dunkley and Lachie Neale to Rowan Marshall and Clayton Oliver
Like many coaches, I’ll be making two forced trades for Dunkley and Oliver. Buying Marshall early has an element of risk given he is coming back from injury and missed a game with a plantar fascia concern in Round 5. But his sparkling 132 against Port Adelaide in a thumping loss and his mouthwatering upcoming fixtures have convinced me to take the punt.
Marshall faces Hawthown (Ben McEvoy), Gold Coast (Zac Smith) and Geelong (Rhys Stanley) in his next three matches, and if he stays on the park, he will be a definite top-three forward from here. The ruck/forward averaged 104 points in 17 matches last year with Paddy Ryder playing in 13 of them, so I’m not concerned by Ryder’s return this week.
Marshall has a high break even, which I hope will deter coaches and allow me to have a point-of-difference pick for the next fortnight. Melbourne also has an enticing run over the next month with Christian Petracca coming into my thoughts, but I think I will settle for the ever-reliable Oliver.
THE PHANTOM
Josh Dunkley to Deven Robertson, Errol Gulden/Heath Chapman to Andrew Brayshaw
I think, anyway. I’ve had more time to think about my own trades this week and it hasn’t been a good thing. I want to make money out of my injured premiums, so I initially looked at Isaac Heeney.
But, given his history, in the mess that is this year’s KFC SuperCoach forward line, is the star Swan really less of a chance to backfire than a junior ball-magnet, who scored 106 in a half in the VFL before finishing with 97 points in Jarrod Berry’s role last week? I don’t think so. Robertson also attended five centre bounces with Lachie Neale IN the side against the Blues.
It’s a move which could ruin my season but it could also make my year, given the money will help fast track the upgrade process. I’m picking him to average 85, not for his own cash generation, to be clear. I like Clayton Oliver, and I’m nervous about what he could score against the Roos, but with a break even of 122, he’s likely to roughly hold his price. Brayshaw, who has a break even score of 54 after posting back-to-back KFC SuperCoach tons, will not. Oh, and it all means I’ll be holding Neale for now. Something I might continue to do if I can execute an upgrade every round for the next 3-4 weeks.
TRADE GRADES: MOST TRADED-OUT PLAYERS
JOSH DUNKLEY $634,100 FWD/MID
Al Paton: TRADE — One thing I got right this year was starting this guy. Shoulder surgery means we must trade but he’ll be one of my first picked in 2022 when he might get an injury discount.
Tim Michell: TRADE — You don’t really have much choice. What a bummer as he was absolutely flying.
Dan Batten: TRADE — Will miss at least three months so unfortunately we’ll have to say goodbye to the scoring machine
LACHIE NEALE $578,700 MID
AP: TRADE — Another star who has to go. Nowhere near his Round 1 price but still expensive enough to grab a top-line gun like Clayton Oliver or even Jack Macrae or look for value with Sam Walsh or Andy Brayshaw.
TM: TRADE — It’s a shame to punt him at his lowest price but make the best of the situation. If you have Neale and Dunkley use their value to grab two absolutely guns — Oliver and Steele maybe?
DB: TRADE — Was a warrior playing through injury against Carlton but is another must-trade given his medium-term ankle setback.
DUSTIN MARTIN $482,900 FWD/MID
AP: HOLD — Please don’t trade Dusty! We have enough problems without giving away a certain top-three scorer in his position. Play Jimmy Rowe — or even cop a zero — for one week. It will be worth it in the long run.
TM: HOLD — What are you doing? Unless we hear he’s missing more than one week you have to hold. He might be the only forward premo left at this rate, even though his last month has been underwhelming.
DB: HOLD — Should miss just the one game with concussion – if he isn’t forced into a 14-day quarantine after jetting to New Zealand.
ERROL GULDEN $309,500 MID
AP: TRADE — Definitely not opposed to hanging onto Errol for a bit longer but he’s the best path to a gun midfielder for most coaches. But trade him up, not down.
TM: TRADE — The danger signs were there against the Suns. Barely any midfield time and stuck forward in a team which was well beaten. Does he get a rest this week too? The first two weeks were a dream but they were a clear outlier.
DB: TRADE — Faces a break even of 78, which he hasn’t passed since Round 2. His premium-esque scoring seems to be a thing of the past, although he shouldn’t be your No.1 priority if you have glaring issues elsewhere.
JORDAN CLARK $283,400 MID/DEF
AP: TRADE — Neale or Dunkley are higher priorities but if you can use his declining value to get a premium in defence or the midfield, go for it.
TM: TRADE — Unless he’s named in the 22. If you’ve persisted this long you might as well hold if he’s named.
DB: TRADE — While owners got lucky in Round 5 when he was unused as the medical sub, he was forced to come on late in the last term over the weekend. Is on the fringe and has a break even of 89.
BRAEDEN CAMPBELL $235,800 MID/FWD
AP: TRADE — Similar calculation to Clark after both started as the medical sub last week and played limited game time. hard to see him reaching his 65 break even if he does play.
TM: TRADE — I’d still move him on before I traded Gulden. The scoring just isn’t there and he played as a lockdown small forward when subbed on against Gold Coast.
DB: TRADE — Came on as the sub early but scored another sub-40 total. Probably best to move him on if you can despite the fact he may return this week.
JAMES ROWE $232,600 FWD
AP: HOLD — If he’s playing we’re going to need him! Should get his 31 break even this week, then we can start thinking about a trade.
TM: HOLD — I want to trade him badly but the forward line is enough of a mess without trading a guy who’s played every game. If only I could get it right instead of benching him for every 60+ score and copping the 20s on field.
DB: HOLD — Always going to be an up and down scorer, and his break even is manageable.
TOM HICKEY $421,700 RUC
AP: TRADE — See Tim’s advice below. If you started without Gawn or Grundy now is a chance to correct that mistake.
TM: TRADE — Use the Dunkley or Neale injuries to turn him into Brodie Grundy before he massacres the Suns.
DB: TRADE — Why didn’t you give him the flick last week?
PATRICK CRIPPS $482,000 MID
AP: HOLD — Who could have predicted an 87.5 average when he nearly had that total at halftime in Round 1? A failed pick for many (including me) unfortunately but wait until he puts up a 140 and regains some value before considering a trade.
TM: HOLD — I traded him a few weeks ago so this advice seems a bit rich, but if you’ve persisted this long just keep him. He has to turn the corner soon, doesn’t he?
DB: HOLD — With the current injury crisis, sideways trades are a luxury. Still winning plenty of the footy – he just needs to tidy up his disposal.
PATRICK DANGERFIELD $611,900 FWD/MID
AP: TRADE — You can do a lot with $611k.
TM: TRADE — Out for at least another 5-6 weeks and too expensive to have sitting on your bench.
DB: TRADE — Set to miss another 6-8 weeks.
MOST TRADED-IN PLAYERS
JACK MACRAE $668,600 MID
AP: BUY — What a gun. He has a great record against the Tigers and won’t get any cheaper in the foreseeable future, so this could be your best chance to grab him.
TM: BUY — Starting him was one of my best moves. An absolute jet and perfect VC option most weeks. His kicking efficiency is through the roof this year, which has lifted his scoring to monstrous levels.
DB: BUY — As consistent as they come, scoring between 137 and 146 in four of his six matches.
SAM WALSH $581,000 MID
AP: BUY — The fourth-best scoring midfielder so far and won’t be under $600k for long.
TM: BUY — Still not completely convinced he’ll be a top-eight midfielder come season’s end unless Carlton gets its act together. But at less than $600k you can’t really go wrong with this one.
DB: BUY — Has well and truly overtaken Patrick Cripps and will be entrenched in the top-eight midfielders.
JACK ZIEBELL $541,400 FWD
AP: BUY — Of course you should have picked him before now but put that to one side — $541k is still a good price for a guy averaging 127. Could be the top-scoring forward this year, which is nuts.
TM: BUY — People still don’t have him? This is like arriving to the party just as people are starting to pack up. Might be the topscoring forward of 2021 if he stays fit.
DB: BUY — It’s not too late to jump on this freight train.
RILEY THILTHORPE $202,800 RUC/FWD
AP: PASS — I can see the appeal of picking him and Rowan Marshall to provide ruck/forward cover but he kicked five goals last week for 91 points. What happens when he kicks one or none?
TM: WAIT — Young key forwards can be very volatile scorers and I want to see him go 60-plus again to guarantee a price spike before committing. He’s 200cm and moves like a gazelle, though. What a prospect.
DB: PASS… for now. He kicked a bag of five and scored 91. Watch to see how he fares in his second game before making the $200,000 investment.
DAYNE ZORKO $485,500 MID/FWD
AP: BUY — My likely Josh Dunkley replacement. Has a tendency to drop a sub-50 stinker but is under $500k and has a proven premium scoring history.
TM: BUY — But with a word of caution. The extra midfield time will be there without Lachie Neale but so is the potential for a tag. His nemesis Touk Miller awaits in a few weeks.
DB: BUY — Should receive enhanced midfield minutes with Lachie Neale out and is very affordable.
MARTIN FREDERICK $123,900 DEF
AP: WAIT — Looked amazing but that was a against the woeful Saints, so I definitely need to see another game before committing.
TM: WAIT — Brilliant on debut but how many times have coaches been burned already by going early on rookies this year? The Power team isn’t exactly easy to hold a spot in and most KFC SuperCoaches are already carrying a Tom Highmore doughnut.
DB: WAIT — Looms as a must-have ahead of Round 8, but don’t tempt the KFC SuperCoach gods. We all know what happened to Lachie Jones.
TOBY GREENE $505,100 FWD
AP: PASS — In red-hot form averaging three goals a week and exactly 100 KFC SuperCoach points. Hard to see him going up from here and always a suspension risk.
TM: PASS — I really, really want to say yes but the injury and suspension history suggests no is the right answer. Sidebottom is cheaper and DPP.
DB: BUY — He has burnt me in the past so I am treading carefully, but on the surface he is scoring well and is in great form.
ROOKIE GUIDE: WHO TO BUY, HOLD, SELL THIS WEEK
MITCH DUNCAN $582,400 MID
AP: PASS — I picked Mitch last year on a similar hot streak and he levelled out to the 103 average he has posted for most of the past four years. That’s not terrible but I think we can aim higher.
TM: BUY — Won’t kick four goals every week but is an incredibly consistent scorer and always a POD. Really like this one.
DB: BUY — If you’re looking for a POD, Duncan is your man. Taking some kick-ins and running amok for the Cats.
DEVEN ROBERTSON $225,800 MID/FWD
AP: PASS — Very interesting prospect who could post some good scores if he’s part of the Lions’ starting midfield but that’s not guaranteed. Too risky for me at that elevated price.
TM: BUY — Smarter and higher-ranked coaches than me are on board with this pick so who am I to disagree? He’ll have a break even in the negatives after this week and should get more midfield time with Neale out. I can see this one working out really well.
DB: PASS — Feel we have missed the boat on Robertson, and there isn’t evidence to suggest he will be playing a significant midfield role – even with Neale out. That doesn’t mean he won’t be a popular pick in the future.
CHRISTIAN PETRACCA $598,300 MID
AP: BUY — Warming to taking a punt on Trac over teammate Clayton Oliver. He costs $2k more and is more volatile in his scoring but the upside is his ability to go on a massive run and the Dees’ next four games are against North Melbourne, Sydney, Carlton and Adelaide. Oh boy.
TM: BUY — But not over Clayton Oliver. If you already have Clarry then go for your life. I value consistency in KFC SuperCoach and Oliver delivers the goods every week. Petracca could score 200 this week against North Melbourne, though. In fact I’ll take a guess — 172 points.
DB: BUY — Has stacks of upside with his high ceiling, especially with Melbourne’s upcoming run.
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