SuperCoach Premium Formguide: Best trades, Champion Data exclusive stats ahead of AFL Round 5
FRIDAY UPDATE: Can you afford to pass on Robbie Tarrant in SuperCoach? These stats might change your mind. Plus new podcast and video. MEMBER EXCLUSIVE
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WELCOME to the premium SuperCoach formguide for Round 5.
Every week Champion Data, which powers the stats behind Australia’s biggest and best fantasy game, will reveal numbers that will guide our SuperCoach moves — who to trade, who to keep, who to bench and who to name as captain.
TOP TIPS: SUPERCOACH TRADE TROUBLE — SPLASH OR STASH?
You won’t see these stats anywhere else.
FRIDAY SPECIALS
Robbie Tarrant (Fwd) $144,700
It’s no surprise that Tarrant is the most traded in player this round on the back of 101 and 121 points in his first two games. He’s on the bubble and has a break-even score of -142 — the lowest of any player in the competition. Even with a modest score this round against Hawthorn, a price rise of around $90,000 is on the cards.
Despite being named as a forward in SuperCoach, he has been deployed in defence by Brad Scott, ranking No. 1 at North Melbourne for intercept possessions, second for intercept marks and third for spoils since Round 3. Barring any injury, he’s likely to hold his place in the side in the foreseeable future.
Nathan Krakouer (Mid/Fwd) $106,900
Krakouer is the second-most traded in player this week behind Tarrant. As a dual-position player he can be selected as a midfielder or forward which adds great flexibility to our team structures. His break-even score of -100 is the second-lowest of any player in the AFL behind Tarrant. He too is likely to jump in value by at least $60,000.
Krakouer hasn’t missed a beat since his return to the AFL, recording four more intercept possession than any other Port Adelaide player since Round 3. He has been used in a role across half-back with his run-and-carry an obvious strength, ranking fourth at the Power for metres gained.
Like Tarrant, Krakouer is also on the bubble this week. With Kane Lambert and Jaden McGrath sidelined long-term a sideways trade is the best option.
Mitch Clark (Forward) $221,900
Almost 150,000 SuperCoaches will be sweating on Clark’s fitness after he was ruled out though injury this round. After experiencing soreness in his “good” foot, the Cats have erred on the side of caution and given him the week off. Clark has been outstanding across the opening four rounds, ranking No. 1 at Geelong for inside 50 targets, marks and disposals in that zone, as well as goals and scoreboard impact.
Already jumping in price by $66,700, he still has a negative break-even (-14) which suggests he still has plenty of room for growth. If you’re desperate to trade, then the most obvious choice is Nathan Krakouer. His dual-position status will add enormous flexibility.
Joshua Glenn (Mid) $120,400
Glenn will be one of two Gold Coast debutants this round alongside Henry Schade. Glenn has been rewarded after some strong performances in the NEAFL and with David Swallow now missing for at least 10 weeks through injury, he could consolidate his place in the side with a strong showing.
Glenn has averaged 25 disposals, 16 uncontested possessions, three tackles, three inside-50s and 101 points per game in the NEAFL this season. He has also covered plenty of territory, averaging 10 inside 50s/rebound 50s.
In his most prominent game, he recorded 31 disposals, 14 contested possessions, 10 inside-50s, six tackles, seven clearances and 151 points in Round 2.
He has been named on the interchange bench but with senior SANFL experience under his belt, he is every chance to avoid the green vest on debut.
NEED SOME SUPERCOACH GUIDANCE? LISTEN TO GILBERT GARDINER AND BEN WATERWORTH ANALYSE THE TEAMS AND POTENTIAL CAPTAINCY OPTIONS IN THE SUPERCOACHES BOX PODCAST. CLICK HERE TO OPEN IN SOUNDCLOUD
DEFENDERS
Key stat: Disposals in Defensive 50
SuperCoaches have often avoided picking key defenders due to the defensive nature of their role, but the top three scoring players this season are all key-position players — Cale Hooker, Alex Rance and Tom McDonald.
Considering key defenders play closer to the defensive line than any other player(s) on the ground, it’s no surprise that Heath Grundy leads the competition for disposals won in the defensive 50 — but from a SuperCoach perspective he isn’t an option worth considering.
Ranking equal-second for disposals won in that zone are Corey Enright, Hooker and Michael Hurley with 42, while Michael Johnson and Michael Talia are not too far behind with 41.
For a defender, winning the ball off the opposition provides a huge boost to SuperCoach scoring, and Hooker is a prime example. He has recorded 16 intercept marks in the defensive 50 — five more than any other player in the AFL. Fellow key defenders McDonald and Michael Talia rank second and third respectively with 11 and eight intercept marks.
BY THE NUMBERS
Heath Grundy (Syd) 43
Michael Hurley (Ess) 42
Cale Hooker (Ess) 42
Corey Enright (Geel) 42
Michael Johnson (Frem) 41
Michael Talia (WB) 41
Luke McPharlin (Frem) 40
Tom McDonald (Melb) 39
Matthew Boyd (WB) 38
Bachar Houli (Rich) 37
Jeremy Howe (Melb) 37
MIDFIELDERS
Key stat: Kicks Inside 50
For a midfielder, blazing away with a kick inside 50 can be costly in SuperCoach, especially if the ball is turned over directly to the opposition. In this instance, that player will lose SuperCoach points. Hitting the intended target, however, offers the opportunity for significant scoring.
Jordan Lewis leads the competition for kicks inside 50 this season with 26, one ahead of Dane Swan on 25, while Nat Fyfe rounds out the top three with 23. From a retention point of view, however, there is no one better than Stephen Hill, with 66.7 per cent of his kicks inside 50 retained by the Dockers.
With ball in hand, his decision making is an obvious strength, with the side scoring 66.7 per cent of the time — the highest percentage of the top 20.
Trent Cotchin’s retention rate of 58.8 per cent from his kicks inside 50 is next best behind Hill, while Dane Swan ranks third with 56 per cent.
At the opposing end, only 20 per cent of David Swallow’s kicks into the attacking 50 have been retained by Gold Coast — 6.3 per cent worse than any other player in the top 20.
BY THE NUMBERS
Stephen Hill (Frem) 18 kicks inside 50 / 66.7% retained
Trent Cotchin (Rich) 17/ 58.8%
Dane Swan (Coll) 25 / 56.0%
Nat Fyfe (Frem) 23 / 52.2%
David Armitage (StK) 19 / 47.4%
Danyle Pearce (Frem) 22 / 45.5%
Jordan Lewis (Haw) 26 / 42.3%
Dion Prestia (GC) 17 / 41.2%
Harley Bennell (GC) 18 / 38.9%
Patrick Dangerfield (Adel) 18 / 38.9%
Scott Pendlebury (Coll) 18 / 38.9%
RUCKS
Key stat: Scoreboard impact
Owning a ruckman than wins the ball around the ground is important, but owning one that can also hit the scoreboard is just as vital.
From a scoreboard impact point of view, Patrick Ryder has recorded a contribution of 43 points this season — ranked No. 1 among all ruckmen. This is made up of four goals, one behind and three goal assists.
Ryder fits right into the Port Adelaide’s structure, sharing the ruck duties with Matthew Lobbe, attending 63 ruck contests per game compared to Lobbe’s 61. As a dual-position player, he has plenty of upside.
Stefan Martin has ranks second for scoreboard impact with a contribution of 38 points and Nic Naitanui isn’t far behind with 37 points.
Aaron Sandilands ranks a lowly equal 15th with a contribution of only seven points. His ability to impact the scoreboard has been lacking across career despite his height, recording double figure goals only twice — with his last way back in 2010 (13 goals).
BY THE NUMBERS
Patrick Ryder (PA) 43 points
Stefan Martin (BL) 38 points
Nic Naitanui (WC) 37 points
Todd Goldstein (NM) 25 points
Ben McEvoy (Haw) 24 points
Shane Mumford (GWS) 20 points
Tom Bellchambers (Ess) 20 points
Will Minson (WB) 19 points
Zack Smith (GC) 15 points
Mark Jamar (Melb) 14 points
Daniel Gorringe (GC) 13 points
Matthew Leuenberger (BL) 12 points
FORWARDS
Key stat: Score Involvements
A player is credited with a score involvement for being involved in a chain of possession that leads to a score. This can include disposals, hit-outs to advantage, kick-ins or knock ons. If a player has two disposals in the same scoring chain, he is only credited with one score involvement.
In SuperCoach, a score involvement doesn’t equate to extra SuperCoach points. The player is only rewarded for his possession/disposal and for a score assist if they are the second-last player in the scoring chain.
Jarryd Roughead has been involved in 42 scoring chains already this season — ranked No. 1 in the AFL and four more than any other forward in the game, with Lance Franklin and Josh Kennedy next best. Key forwards Jack Riewoldt and Matthew Pavlich round out the top five with 35 and 32 in that order.
Roughed ranks equal-fourth overall for total scoreboard impact with a contribution of 98 points, with Kennedy the clear leader in that category courtesy of his 135-point contribution — 18 more than Franklin who ranks second.
If upgrading in the forward line this week, be mindful that key forwards aren’t the most reliable scorers, as Roughead highlighted last week, He could only manage 46 points against Port Adelaide after racking up 173 a week earlier against the Western Bulldogs.
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BY THE NUMBERS
Jarryd Roughead (Haw) 42
Josh Kennedy (WC) 38
Lance Franklin (Syd) 38
Jack Riewoldt (Rich) 35
Matthew Pavlich (Frem) 32
Mark LeCras (WC) 31
Eddie Betts (Adel) 31
Cyril Rioli (Haw) 30
Jeff Garlett (Melb) 30
Jeremy Cameron (GWS) 30
Lindsay Thomas (NM) 29
Ben Griffiths (Rich) 29
Devon Smith (GWS) 28
Luke Dahlhaus (WB) 28
Jarrad Waite (NM) 27
Cam McCarthy (GWS) 27
Jesse Hogan (Melb) 27
DEFENSIVE PLAYERS
A defender’s prime responsibility is to nullify his opponent and Alipate Carlile more than succeeded in that department last week against Hawthorn, keeping Jarryd Roughead goal-less from the 79 minutes they were matched up, restricting him to just six disposals.
Carlile has been outstanding all season, recording a defensive rating of 40 per cent — keeping his main opponent to an average of 45 SuperCoach points per 100 minutes.
All-Australian defender Daniel Talia has also excelled defensively this season, blanketing Drew Petrie and Travis Cloke already this year. His defensive rating of 30.8 per cent is the third-best overall.
The Lions and Justin Clarke have been under the pump all season, conceding 15 goals to his opponents already this year — the equal-most of any player in the AFL. His defensive rating of -29.7 per cent is the second-worst behind Cameron Guthrie. Clarke will have his hands full over the coming weeks.
Talking taggers, Dennis Armfield performed another vital role last weekend, shutting down Shane Savage as was forecast last week. Armfield restricted Savage to only 12 disposals from the 76 minutes they were matched up. He’s likely to be handed the role on Paul Seedsman this week after his damaging display on Anzac Day.
WHO TO TARGET
There are two rules in SuperCoach. One, pick Gary Ablett (when fit and firing) and two, make sure you also have Scott Pendlebury. This year he has suffered a dip in popularity and is currently in 31 per cent of teams despite scoring the eighth-most points.
Pendlebury once again sits atop of this week’s potential targets, averaging 120 points against his three upcoming opponents from 12 games. His consistency is unrivalled, scoring 120-plus points in 14 games since the start of last season — the most of any player in the competition.
He has dominated against this round’s opponent Carlton in recent times as well, averaging 127 points from his past four games.
Kieren Jack has also averaged 120 points against his three upcoming opponents, but with a break-even score of 181 points to reach, he isn’t an option this round. Joel Selwood should always be in the mix as a midfield upgrade, and after a below-par 84 point return last week against North Melbourne, expect him and the Cats to bounce back strongly against Richmond this week.
Todd Goldstein is a must-have player if you’re upgrading an underperforming ruckman, averaging a career-high 130 points per game — 30 more than any other ruckman in the competition.
CAPTAINS CORNER
NAF FYFE
The new perma-captain in SuperCoach, Fyfe is rewarding owners who put the “C” on him every week. He is on track to deliver again, scoring 125 and 128 in his past two games against Melbourne. Let’s hope Bernie Vince doesn’t ruin it for everyone.
SCOTT PENDLEBURY
An ideal Friday loophole candidate, Pendles is the metronome of SuperCoach. He has scored between 107 and 126 in every game this year — and for pretty much his whole career. Andrew Carrazzo got him in early 2012 but since then his scores against Carlton read 154, 121, 133, 102.
TODD GOLDSTEIN
The No. 1 ruckman in SuperCoach and the No. 2 scorer overall has gone to a new level in 2015, scoring at least 100 in every game including a pair of 154s. This week he faces Hawthorn, a team he has scored well against in the past, averaging 116 in his past three.
JOEL SELWOOD
The Cats skipper has had an up-and-down start to the year and faces Richmond at the MCG on Saturday. The Tigers don’t have a tagger but Selwood’s average of 114 in his past three is built mainly on a 144 at Simonds Stadium in 2012 — in the past two years he has scored 105 and 93. Can he go big this time?
RORY SLOANE
Once bit, twice shy? Those who made Sloane captain last week were burnt badly by his score of 60 against the Bulldogs which followed 145, 134 and 140 in the first three rounds. A show of faith could be rewarded as Sloane has a good record in Showdowns. Just hope he doesn’t get the Kane Cornes treatment.
Originally published as SuperCoach Premium Formguide: Best trades, Champion Data exclusive stats ahead of AFL Round 5
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