SuperCoach: Premium Formguide ahead of Round 3 AFL action, Champion Data exclusive stats
UPDATE: SHOULD we jump on Nathan Krakouer or Brendan Whitecross? Exclusive stats plus best trade and captain picks. NEW FRIDAY PODCAST
SuperCoach
Don't miss out on the headlines from SuperCoach. Followed categories will be added to My News.
WELCOME to our premium SuperCoach formguide for Round 3.
Every week Champion Data, which powers the stats behind Australia’s biggest and best fantasy game, will reveal numbers that will guide our SuperCoach moves — who to trade, who to keep, who to bench and who to name as captain.
You won’t see these stats anywhere else.
NEED SOME LAST MINUTE SUPERCOACH ADVICE? LISTEN TO GILBERT GARDINER AND BEN WATERWORTH IN THE SUPERCOACHES BOX PODCAST. CLICK HERE TO OPEN IN SOUNDCLOUD.
FRIDAY SPECIALS
BRENDAN WHITECROSS (Hawthorn) $198,700 def
Whitecross is one of five inclusions for the Hawks this round after being named on the extended interchange bench. With premiership stars Sam Mitchell and Josh Gibson also returning, he needs to make the final cut on Friday afternoon before his return can be rubber-stamped. With Gibson replacing the injured James Frawley and Mitchell coming in for the omitted Jono O’Rourke, he faces an uphill battle to make the side.
Whitecross hasn’t played since the 2013 preliminary final, a season he averaged 15 disposals, two tackles and 62 SuperCoach points. Despite playing across half-back that year, he is a versatile player and can be used in a variety of positions. He has previously played in attack and through the midfield.
NATHAN KRAKOUER (Port Adelaide) $106,900 mid/fwd
Krakouer will make his long-awaited return to the AFL after earning promotion to the senior list during the week. His last game at the elite level was against Brisbane in Round 21 of 2011 as a Gold Coast player, spending last season in the SANFL with Port Adelaide.
He played two games in the NAB Challenge and didn’t look out of place against the Tigers in Lavington, recording 10 disposals and six rebound-50s. He played across half-forward in the opening round of the SANFL and was dominant, finishing with 23 disposals, two goals, two score assists, six clearances and 146 points.
Krakouer is expected to avoid the green vest in his return, where his experience and hard-running will be on show. SuperCoaches looking for a replacement for the injured Kane Lambert can snap him up at the basement low price.
CHRIS KNIGHTS (Richmond) $227,000 fwd
Continuing the comeback theme this round is Knights, who will run out for his first game since Round 7 in 2013, with injuries restricting him to only five games in the VFL since.
He played in the final NAB Challenge game against Port Adelaide and hit the scoreboard with two goals and one score assist. He also grabbed five marks and collected 70 SuperCoach points.
With Kane Lambert out injured and Brett Deledio still missing, Knights will be looking to get his AFL career back on track with a strong showing at the Gabba on Saturday night. At his best, he was a dangerous forward in 2009, scoring 43 goals from 20 games – ranking equal 18th in the AFL for scoreboard impact.
But with Deledio expected to return next week, his jobs security is far from assured.
CIARAN BYRNE (Carlton) $123,900 def
Byrne will join fellow Irishman Zach Tuohy in defence this week as he embarks on his AFL debut. In what has been a rapid rise, he developed his game in the VFL development league last season before earning promotion to the seniors in Round 5. He kept his place in the side for the remainder of the year and averaged 12 disposals.
Byrne played all three NAB Challenge games in defence and was more than handy, averaging 12 disposals, 1.7 spoils, 1.3 intercept marks and 55 SuperCoach points. He also ranked second for intercept possessions behind Chris Yarran.
With over 18,000 SuperCoaches currently owning Joel Hamling, a straight swap for Byrne is a nice way out.
DEFENDERS
Key stat: Metres Gained
The undisputed leader in metres gained in the competition across the past two seasons has been Nick Malceski. He has made an indifferent start to his Gold Coast career, posting scores of 79 and 52 respectively. With the Suns notably struggling, he needs a score of 200 points this week just to keep his price — the equal seventh-highest break-even score of any player in the competition.
The mantle of the No. 1 metres gained player has been handed to Shane Savage, gaining 697 metres per match. As the 62nd most expensive defender in the competition, he presents tremendous value at his price, ranking in the top 10 in the competition for points scored among defenders. He also ranks in the top 10 for disposals, averaging 23.5 per game.
Brodie Smith ranks second in the competition for metres gained and second overall for points scored for defenders behind Alex Rance. Smith’s link up play from defence and hard running are key traits in his game, ranking equal No. 1 at the Crows for running-bounces with six.
By the numbers
Shane Savage (StK) 696.8
Brodie Smith (Adel) 597.9
Bachar Houli (Rich) 566.7
Tom Langdon (Coll) 487.4
Nick Malceski (GC) 483.0
Michael Hurley (Ess) 482.4
Jamie Macmillan (NM) 452.5
Matthew Suckling (Haw) 452.0
Dane Rampe (Syd) 445.9
Robert Murphy (WB) 440.7
MIDFIELDERS
Key stat: Kicking Efficiency
For a midfielder, hitting targets by foot is a non-negotiable. A player’s overall kicking efficiency is measured by the percentage of kicks that are effective. Effective kicks are the sum of effective short kicks, effective long kicks and effective ground kicks. An effective short kick is one that travels less than 40 metres and results in the intended target retaining possession. If this kick isn’t retained by that target, then it will be deemed ineffective, or alternatively a clanger if it’s directly turned over to the opposition. An effective long kick is one directed more than 40 metres that results in a 50/50 contest or better for the team.
If we look at the top 20 midfielders for kicks after two rounds, Jared Polec’s kicking efficiency of 75% ranks No.1. Matthew Boyd is next best with a kicking efficiency of 74.3%, but he is aided by his safe ball use, with 77.1% of all kicks directed short — the highest percentage of that group.
At the other end of this scale, Dane Swan’s kicking efficiency is clearly the worst, hitting the target 37.1% of the time — 10% worse than Patrick Dangerfield’s 47.1%.
By the numbers
Jared Polec (PA) 75%
Matthew Boyd (WB) 74.3%
Luke Hodge (Haw) 69.2%
Nat Fyfe (Frem) 68.8%
Scott Pendlebury (Coll) 67.6%
Stephen Hill (Frem) 65.6%
David Mundy (Frem) 62.9%
Rory Sloane (Adel) 61.3%
Brad Ebert (PA) 61.1%
Jordan Lewis (Haw) 60.5%
RUCKS
Key stat: Winning Percentage
It’s no surprise that Aaron Sandilands has won 64.2% of all ruck contests attended this season — ranked No. 1 in the AFL. His output hasn’t been the same this season, suffering falls in disposals, contested possessions, clearances and SuperCoach points per game. His hit-out-to-advantage rate has also dropped to 27.9% — down from a career-high 31.3% in 2014. Sandilands needs a score of 169 points in the Derby this week to keep his current price.
His opponent in this week’s Derby, Nic Naitanui ranks second behind Sandilands for his winning percentage in contests (61.9%), returning 92 and 103 points in that order. He has been used in bursts by Adam Simpson, recording the lowest stint on the ground of any ruckman in the AFL (7:21).
One of the more popular selections in SuperCoach this year is Tom Bellchambers. He has recorded a winning percentage of only 32.8% — the sixth-lowest of any ruckman to play this season. His impact around the stoppages has been minimal, averaging the one clearance — the equal second-lowest of any player.
By the numbers
Aaron Sandilands (Frem) 64.2%
Nic Naitanui (WC) 61.9%
Todd Goldstein (NM) 50.0%
Shane Mumford (GWS) 46.5%
Zac Smith (GC) 46.1%
Mike Pyke (Syd) 44.9%
Stefan Martin (Bris) 43.9%
Ben McEvoy (Haw) 42.6%
Mark Jamar (Mel) 41.8%
Ivan Maric (Rich) 41.0%
FORWARDS
Key stat: Scoreboard Impact
The early bolter in the Coleman Medal race is Josh J. Kennedy on the back of his 10 goal haul last round against Carlton. He leads the competition for total scoreboard impact after two rounds with a contribution of 87 points. This is made up of 12 goals, three behinds and two score assists. Team mate Mark LeCras isn’t too far behind in third, while fellow Eagle Jamie Cripps ranks fourth overall.
Adelaide skipper Taylor Walker ranks second behind Kennedy with a contribution of 74 points, and with a break-even score of only three points this week, expect his price to boom after the Melbourne clash.
Josh Bruce has upstaged Nick Riewoldt so far this season, ranking fifth for scoreboard impact with a contribution of 58 points. Named as a defender in SuperCoach, he has a break-even score of -54 points this round, so a decent price rise is on the cards. Costing less than $300k, he looms as a unique mid-price option for your defence.
By the numbers
Josh J. Kennedy (WC) 87
Taylor Walker (Adel) 74
Mark LeCras (WC) 70
Jamie Cripps (WC) 60
Josh Bruce (StK) 58
Lance Franklin (Syd) 56
Jarrad Waite (NM) 55
Eddie Betts (Adel) 52
Paul Puopolo (Haw) 51
Matthew Pavlich (Frem) 51
TAGGERS
Another tagger has bitten the dust, with Scott Selwood sidelined for up to six weeks with an ankle injury. When analysing the most effective run-with player so far this season, it’s Simon White that trumps everyone else, with his main opponents falling 73.8% short of that their expected SuperCoach output. This includes shutting down Dustin Martin in the season opener and starting on Mark LeCras last round before coming off injured in the early stages of the first term. Thankfully for SuperCoaches, he’ll be sidelined for the next four weeks.
Patrick McGinnity has performed a vital role for his side across half-forward, shutting down both Robert Murphy and Chris Yarran in successive weeks. Owners of Paul Duffield could be a little nervous heading into this week’s Derby. McGinnity has kept his two opponents to almost 50% below their expected SuperCoach output — ranked third among taggers this season.
On the flip side, Cameron Guthrie has had his work cut out, especially after being towelled up last round by Nat Fyfe. He could be set for Harley Bennell this week after he booted six goals against the Cats in their most recent clash.
WHO TO TARGET
Replacing Gary Ablett will be at the forefront for over 91,000 SuperCoaches this round. The four most popular trades this round have all involved ditching the little master, with Nat Fyfe the No. 1 traded in player and why not after scoring 162 points last week against Geelong.
In terms of replacements for Ablett, Josh P. Kennedy sits atop of the likely targets with an average of 122 points against his upcoming three opponents from 12 games. He faces cross-town rival GWS Giants this week, a side he has dominated against in the past, averaging 27 disposals, 18 contested possessions, seven clearances and 123 points. He ticks all the boxes for a blue-chip midfielder.
Scott Pendlebury is the next best based on numbers against his next three opponents, averaging 121 from 14 games. He faces Essendon on Anzac Day and his record in this fixture is exceptional, racking up scores of 124, 135 and 140 respectively in his past three games. He heads into this week’s clash against St Kilda under an injury cloud, however he should be fit enough to take his place in the side.
CAPTAIN’S CORNER
Nat Fyfe ($657,600 mid)
As one tweet smartly said on the weekend: “The King is dead. Long live the King”. As Gary Ablett struggles with his shoulder, Nat Fyfe has established himself as the dominant SuperCoach scorer in the AFL. His lazy 162 against Geelong — on the Cats’ turf no less — was a masterclass and we doubt the West Coast midfield will be able to contain him any better. The new Brownlow Medal favourite averages 110 in the derby and is the obvious choice as captain this week.
Trent Cotchin ($546,500 mid)
After a quiet Round 1 Trent Cotchin returned to form against the Bulldogs in Round 2, scoring 114. The Tigers skipper could step it up another notch in Round 3 and historically loves playing Brisbane. Cotchin averages 124 in his last three against the Lions and doesn’t mind the Gabba either with a score of 134 last season. The Lions midfielder hasn’t been able to contain opponents very well this season giving up scores of 150 (Jack Ziebell) and 136 (Steele Sidebottom).
Josh Kennedy ($612,200 mid)
The Swans superstar has started 2015 in fine form, posting scores of 127 and 130. Importantly, Kennedy also loves the Battle of the Bridge, averaging 122 against the Giants. Kennedy hasn’t had any trouble finding the pill this season, collecting 30 and 36 disposals in his two games while also laying 15 tackles in two games.
Jarryd Roughead ($514,700 fwd)
The big Rough loves Launceston. The key forward was Hawthorn’s top scorer at Aurora Stadium last season with an average of 126 points from four games. He also enjoys facing his cousin and Bulldogs full-back Jordan Roughead posting 125 in their last meeting. The Hawks will be looking to rebound from the heartbreaking loss to Essendon and the Bulldogs could be the unlucky team to cop the backlash.
Originally published as SuperCoach: Premium Formguide ahead of Round 3 AFL action, Champion Data exclusive stats
The AFL trades set to deliver big SuperCoach bargains
Bailey Smith and Clayton Oliver could be huge SuperCoach steals at a new club in 2025. Which other names should be on the watch list? Here are the moves to watch.
AFL obsession to NBL addiction: How SuperCoach hooked me on hoops
I hadn’t watch the NBL since the Andrew Gaze and Shane Heal days. Now I’m taking my son to United games and watching Phoenix on Kayo because of one reason.