SuperCoach crystal ball revisited: Pre-season predictions, what we got wrong and surprise packets from SuperCoach 2019
SuperCoach is difficult to predict — and 2019 has been no exception. Did the kick-in rule live up to the hype, which young gun is averaging more than Patrick Cripps, and was a star discount ruckman under our noses all along?
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At the start of the season we all have to guess what is going to happen and who we expect to prosper and flounder.
Now we are at grand final week, it is time for us to have a look back and see how those bold pre-season predictions panned out.
How Dunny’s bold predictions worked out
I put together a list of predictions for the Supercoach season and with a couple of them, I was well off the mark. Here is my scorecard.
Brodie Grundy would be first back to back high scoring ruck since Dean Cox — Tick
Not only is he the highest-scoring ruck, he has been the highest-scoring player for the season. Some coaches thought that his initial price was too much money to spend on one player, but it has turned out that he has been well worth the price and should be one of the first picked again in 2020.
Max Gawn will not be affected by Preuss and will be second highest ruck — Tick
Preuss didn’t play for much of the season and when he did he has rarely affected Max. If not for a game where he was injured and the subsequent game he missed, Gawn could have been a hot challenger for Grundy’s title. The Gawn/Grundy combination was the one to start with and to hold.
Tom Rockliff will bounce back and average 100 — Cross
This wasn’t a pass but it was looking good early in the year. Rocky had a great start to the season, scoring over 100 in six of the first 10 games with three being 120+. But he wasn’t able to do it often enough and with just one 100 since the byes he goes into the last round averaging 92. He hasn’t been a complete bust but he has certainly ruined the season for some coaches.
Dan Hannebery will be back to the Dan we knew and have a solid average — Cross
Unfortunately Hannebery wasn’t able to overcome injuries and struggled to get on the park. A 122 in Round 21 did show us that he certainly has what it takes to be a great Supercoach player if his body lets him. If he can get his body right for season 2020 he could be a value pick up.
Lachie Neale’s move to Brisbane won’t be a points bonanza — Cross
Neale had a brilliant start to the year and was the must-have player. Averaging over 118 for the season, it has been his career-best year so far. Most coaches that didn’t start with him were moving heaven and earth to get him into their sides as soon as possible. His scoring post bye hasn’t been as massive as it was early in the year, but he is still averaging 110 since Round 14.
Buddy will be a SuperCoach bust — Tick
I thought this would come true due to his low scoring, but it has also been his inability to stay on the park. Playing just nine games for the year and having only one game over 80, it has been a year to forget for Lance Franklin. It will be a brave coach that selects him next year.
It is the year of the expensive rookie — Tick
Often we will shy away from the No. 1 draft pick who therefore becomes the most expensive rookie in the game. But Sam Walsh has proven that it isn’t a curse having such a high price tag. Walsh has had six scores over 100 and an average over 85 for the season, playing every game.
I did predict that there would be two that would be great to have in your side and the second one would be Connor Rozee. He has also played every game so far and has had five scores over 100 and is averaging more than 75. While he hasn’t had the impact that Walsh has, there has been plenty to like about Rozee’s debut season.
Brad Crouch will play 20+ games and show us how good he is — Tick
While many were nervous about picking him this season he is averaging 100.24 and has repaid the faith of coaches who started with and held him. With six games over 110 it has been a great season for Brad as he has finally stayed injury-free.
THE VERDICT
Predicting what will happen during the season is not easy, but it is what this game is all about.
Getting five out of the 8 bold claims right is better than I thought I would do when I wrote them.
Something that I learned during the season was to be bold with my moves, just like these claims.
If you wait, you can often miss out on a heap of points while you procrastinate and in that time, you fall behind the pack.
A player rising in price (or down in the case of a rookie) can be the difference and could send your ranking tumbling.
Things we got wrong
Kick-in kings?
Well, wrong in the end.
The new kick-in rules promised untold riches for our SuperCoach defence, with kick-in pigs set to cash in and put an extra 10-plus points on their average.
This was somewhat accurate, with Jake Lloyd and Shannon Hurn pushing their averages close to the 120-point mark for the first half of the season.
However this trend didn’t continue, with no SuperCoach defender averaging more than 110 points per game as it stands, and just five going at 100-plus.
Many SuperCoaches went into season 2019 with a loaded defence and lost crucial points in other areas of the ground.
Especially those who started with Rory Laird, who has slumped to his lowest SuperCoach return since 2015.
Todd Goldstein
Set and forget, chuck out the rest.
That’s what the majority of SuperCoaches said when we locked in superstars Brodie Grundy and Max Gawn at the beginning of 2019.
While this pair certainly hasn’t hindered any side, there was a veteran ruckman who few coaches gave a chance.
As it stands, Todd Goldstein has scored 84 points less than Gawn and hasn’t missed a game all season.
Starting Goldy over Gawn would have saved SuperCoaches a whopping $146k.
Boy, would that have been handy.
Dustin Martin and Stephen Coniglio
Stephen Coniglio was the value selection of 2018, while Dustin Martin had his colours lowered after one of the best individual seasons the game has ever seen.
The pair started the year within the $550-600k range, with many SuperCoaches hoping for a reinvigorated Dusty and more of the same from Coniglio.
However, both failed to deliver for coaches.
It looked bright for Coniglio — starting with a monster 154-point display — but injuries and poor form have frustrated those who persisted with the ball-magnet.
He gave us hope with his brilliant double ton against the Suns, but an average of 101.2 from 15 games (admittedly, with an injury affected 0 in there) won’t have SuperCoaches coming back in a hurry.
Same can be said for the Tiger star, who is currently averaging just under 100 points with one game to play. The last time he went at less than a ton per game was in 2014.
Things we didn’t see coming
Josh Dunkley’s meteoric rise
If I’d told you Josh Dunkley would average more than Patrick Cripps at the start of the season, you would have scoffed in my face.
Now, that is a reality after another monumental score for the young Bulldog, who is currently averaging 117 points per game.
This stat is even more remarkable considering the SuperCoach beast failed to register a ton in his first six games of the season.
From that point on, the 22-year-old has dominated in a pure midfield role, registering four 150-plus totals — two of which have come in the past fortnight.
Rowan Marshall
Ruckman listed as forwards in SuperCoach have proved to be fruitful in the past and Rowan Marshall will go down as possibly the best of the lot.
Taking the punt on the emerging big man at a lowly $340k price tag has paid handsome dividends as he is currently the second-highest averaging forward behind Dunkley.
Marshall has fallen below 109 points just once in the past 11 weeks, showing tremendous consistency as the Saints No. 1 ruckman.
He has even managed scores of 125 and 126 against Gawn and Goldstein respectively in the back half of the year, showing he can match it with the best.
The Keepers
Al Paton
11 — Gawn, Grundy, Lloyd, Williams, B Smith, Macrae, Cripps, Fyfe, B Crouch, Dangerfield, Heeney
F3 was a nightmare all pre-season so it’s no surprise I got that wrong. Picking Mundy instead of Tim Kelly started a chain reaction that derailed my season from the start. The two rucks survived all year as we hoped they would with a few other high-priced “keepers” but it’s something of a surprise to see my two Adelaide mid-pricers still there. I think Grundy/Gawn was the right strategy but Todd Goldstein has been incredible in the run home — good luck picking two starting rucks next season. My biggest piece of advice is stick to your guns on team structure. I went in with a rookie-heavy defence and tried to change course after a couple of nervous weeks (using Mundy and Dusty) but as it turns out most of those rookies were decent selections and I just set myself back a few trades that would be very handy right now!
The Phantom
12 — Newman, Lloyd, Macrae, Cripps, Taranto, B Crouch, B Scott, Grundy, Gawn, Dunkley, Dangerfield, Heeney
The Phantom was ridiculed in the pre-season for suggesting Carlton recruit Nic Newman would be a top-eight defender in 2019. Fast forward 22 rounds and, while he missed two games with injury, Newman is the seventh-highest averaging defender in the competition with one match to play. I backed myself in but unfortunately, that wasn’t the case with every selection. Giant Tim Taranto has elevated his game but jumping at shadows and trading out Zac Williams for Lachie Whitfield early on backfired. For once, most of the other mid-price selections did their job with Taranto, Newman and Brad Crouch finishing the year in the side. Looking back, there was no obvious blunder in my starting side. However, I can’t say the same about my trading in 2019.
Tim Michell
9/10 — Whitfield*, Laird, Oliver, Cripps, M. Crouch, Grundy, Gawn, Dangerfield, Dunkley, Heeney
I traded Whitfield when he was injured for a second time but brought him back, so let’s count him with an asterisk. The Grundy-Gawn set and forget combination in the rucks has been a winner, although starting Todd Goldstein wouldn’t have left me far behind considering his red-hot run since the byes. Each time I considered trading Heeney due to his rollercoaster form his price had dropped too much to upgrade to top targets Travis Boak and Rowan Marshall. I held Matt Crouch through a four-week injury which was initially listed as a test, while Laird and Oliver have been underwhelming for usually reliable starting picks. Not having Oliver burned me in past seasons but this year he hasn’t gone big often enough and has been tagged out of games. One of the best holds I made was Josh Dunkley during the period where he played predominantly forward. He’s exploded since going into the middle.
What did I learn? Sometimes it’s best to go against the crowd. I wasn’t going to start Heeney but went the popular pick over Tim Kelly. I won’t be picking any players with a fraught injury history again. Matt Crouch has easily been the most frustrating player in my team this year. He seemed like value at the start of the year but his disposal to SuperCoach points ratio has just about sent me prematurely grey. Durability is a must in SuperCoach.
Dan Batten
Lloyd, Laird, Williams*, Laird, Fyfe, Oliver, Cripps, Grundy, Gawn, Dangerfield, Heeney
The aim of the game in SuperCoach is to make your team better through trading. I managed to do the opposite, trading out cash cow duo Marty Hore and Michael Gibbons along with Bulldogs star Josh Dunkley with three of my first four trades. Killer.
On the plus side I have managed to finish the year with 11 of my premiums I started with (Williams I traded back in after injury). Gawn/Grundy duo was never in doubt, with Braydon Preuss’ apparent selection a red herring, while the likes of Cripps, Fyfe and Dangerfield were locks from the beginning.
My three sporadic moves at the start of the year were a result of my poor first week, with panic ensuing. Self-doubt also led to trading in the troublesome Tom’s in Rocky and Libba — who I had put a line through in the pre-season — which had disastrous results.
Trust your own convictions.
Originally published as SuperCoach crystal ball revisited: Pre-season predictions, what we got wrong and surprise packets from SuperCoach 2019
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