SuperCoach AFL 2024: How to make tough calls on value picks

Nat Fyfe or James Jordon? Jack Steele or Ollie Wines? SuperCoach expert Swiz explains what makes a successful value pick, and gives his verdict on this year’s toughest calls.

Essendon youngster Elijah Tsatas. Picture: Michael Klein

The opening round of the AFL season is completed, which means we are another day closer to finalising our SuperCoach teams.

With the abundance of value options and extra trades this season, many SuperCoach coaches are moving away from the traditional “guns and rookies” strategy, and considering a wide range of players for their starting teams, making calls on who can become season-long keepers or a valuable cash upgrade to an on-field premium.

There is nothing worse than using trades to move out mid-price options who have failed, so I have put together the following list exploring what these players need to do to be considered successful picks.

DEFENDERS

NASIAH WANGANEEN-MILERA ($475,800) & ELLIOT YEO ($447,100)

Wanganeen-Milera and Yeo are a discount option for our starting defence, however both couldn’t be any different for our strategies this season.

With a starting Break Even of 85, Wanganeen-Milera in just his third season is viewed as a discounted premium keeper – if he can take the next step and get his average to no less than 100. With Jack Sinclair likely to be missing for the first game and Jimmy Webster out for seven weeks due to suspension, the Saints will be very reliant on Wanganeen-Milera in their backline.

However, if he fails to find a 15-point spike, coaches could be stuck with a defender who hasn’t made enough cash and is losing points to the other top premium options.

Yeo, meanwhile, has shown in previous years that averaging above the magical 100 is something he can achieve with the right role. Twice the Eagle midfielder has averaged 107, and he looked as solid as ever in the Eagles’ community series match against Adelaide.

Elliot Yeo is a high-risk, high-reward player in SuperCoach. Picture: Daniel Wilkins

The problem with Yeo is that since 2019, he hasn’t played more than 12 games in a season. If he can string a six-eight game period together and average 100, he will get to around $550,000. If you are planning on starting Nic Martin, Yeo could be a great option to flip a fallen midfielder when Martin gets dual-position status after round 6.

If Yeo has an injury affected game or struggles to get in the high 90s, he may become a headache for coaches who could be needing to focus on other issues around the upgrade season.

VERDICT: I prefer Wanganeen-Milera just because he looks more likely to move into the keeper category and I am worried about Yeo’s injury history.

MASSIMO D’AMBROSIO ($224,900) & ZAC WILLIAMS ($216,100)

With many coaches trying to avoid defensive rookies on field, D’Ambrosio and Williams look to be more reliable options. With both playing in the SuperCoach-friendly half-back role, both should easily smash their low 40 Break Even – in particular Williams, who returned to football after 18 months and scored 73 points against Brisbane, and has recorded a season average of more than 84 on five occasions.

If either D’Ambrosio or Williams were to hit those heights, we could be looking at close to a $250,000 price increase, however I feel a 70 average is more realistic, which would be enough to be a step ladder to a fallen premium around the mid-year bye period.

VERDICT: After Williams got through the game against Brisbane he is locked and loaded in my team. With question marks about the job security of defensive rookies, having both at D4 and D5 might be a good option if you think they can average 70 for the first third of the season.

MIDFIELDERS

TOUK MILLER ($545,500), JACK STEELE ($529,500) & OLLIE WINES ($463,600)

After injury interrupted 2023 seasons, Miller and Steele will be looking to return the form that took them to Uber Premium status in previous seasons. Wines will be looking to join them. He hasn’t had the same impact since winning the Brownlow in 2021.

At a discount price the question is can they average close enough to Top 10 midfielders to make them worthy selections. It’s not unrealistic as all three players look fully fit entering this season.

In the community series, Miller was effective both offensively and defensively, with 33 touches and five tackles helping him to 116 SuperCoach points. He followed this up in round 0 against Richmond with another 116 points, this time from 28 touches.

Wines looks to be locked in as the Suns’ ball-winning bull, even with a robust midfield featuring Zak Butters, Connor Rozee and Jason Horne-Francis. He led Port Adelaide for centre bounce attendances in their community series game, amassing 27 touches and a goal as part of a best on ground 130-point SuperCoach performance.

Steele was unable to find the same amount of ball, but with 12 contested possessions and nine tackles, still managed to score 111.

Jack Steele is available at a discounted price. Picture: Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images

As much as that sounds promising, we need to also consider the coaching style of the respective coaches.

While coaching Richmond, Damien Hardwick’s coaching style saw an even spread of SuperCoach points throughout their team. Now coaching the Suns, it will be interesting to see if this continues. In the opening round, Matt Rowell, Sam Flanders, Noah Anderson and Miller all went over 116 points, however with tougher opposition ahead of them, we are unlikely to see this type of midfield dominance repeated.

For the Ross Lyon coached Saints, transitioning the ball through the wings, rather than the centre of the ground, means Jack Steele will need to rely on a high level of clearance points to score well.

Ken Hinkley was under immense pressure last season, and even after a two-year contract extension, the South Australia media will still have high expectations. Playing his best midfielders in centre will be a priority as Port looks to go deeper into September this season.

If this continues to be the case for both the Suns and Saints, Miller and Steele might not get the bump to make them a keeper and a worthwhile selection.

VERDICT: If you are confident any of them can return an average over 110 then at that price, lock them in. Anything less and just find the money for an Uber Premium.

FORWARDS

NATHAN FYFE ($283,200), JAMES JORDON ($275,500), CAMERON MACKENZIE ($271,500), JAMES HARMES ($258,300), ELIJAH TSATAS ($245,900) & JACK BILLINGS ($243,900)

Value in the forward line is all the rage in 2024 – and why not, there are plenty of options under $300,000 for us to choose from. This includes the currently highly owned Fyfe, Jordon, Billings and Harmes as well as rising young guns Tsatas and Mackenzie. With the right role, a 6–8-week average of 75 would lead to any of these players increasing to over $400,000, which will bring in the option of keeping them until the mid-season bye period.

Of this group, two-time Brownlow medallist Fyfe seems to be a standout. Since winning his second Brownlow in 2019, 32-year-old Fyfe has played 45 of a possible 86 matches, however this pre-season it looks like he has put these injury concerns behind him, playing high volume midfield minutes. He was able to accumulate 26 touches in the Dockers’ hitout against Port, with only his disposal efficiency letting him down.

James Jordon, James Harmes and Jack Billings have all changed clubs over the off-season looking for more regular playing time. Jordon, who is a premiership player with Melbourne, has slotted in nicely into Sydney’s starting 22, kicking off the season with an 18-touch, 81 SuperCoach point display. With Callum Mills, Taylor Adams and Luke Parker all sidelined, Jordon has a great opportunity to put his best foot forward at Sydney and make some great cash for any owner.

Can Nat Fyfe rediscover his Brownlow best? Picture: Paul Kane/Getty Images

James Jordon has a solid role in Sydney’s best 23. Picture: Phil Hillyard

Unfortunately, Billings wasn’t able to have to same impact as Jordon, starting as Melbourne’s sub and stunting his early cash growth with an 11-point performance. The attention will turn to the Western Bulldogs team selection, to see where Harmes is named for their round 1 clash against Melbourne. After a solid 74-point performance in the community series, Harmes’ role as part of the Bulldogs midfield group looks solid, however the same was said about Billings after his pre-season score of 91.

Top 10 draft picks Cam Mackenzie and Elijah Tsatas put on promising displays in the Community Series. After playing 14 games in his debut season (four as the sub), Mackenzie once again showed why the Hawks drafted him with a 19-possession, 90 SuperCoach point game. This was similar to his pre-season match in 2023, which he followed up with three scores in his next eight matches of 87 and above.

Tsatas, on the other hand, had to wait until round 20 last year before making his debut, but didn’t look out of place at senior level. He averaged 16 touches over the final four rounds, and in the community series game against Geelong found the ball another 24 times.

With both Hawthorn and Essendon having injuries to their star midfielders, both players could get off to a flying start, and if they can convert their ball-finding ability to SuperCoach points, could be left-field moves for our forward lines.

VERDICT: With the lack of forward premium options, you should be seriously considering starting two of the list above. Fyfe and Jordon look to be the most likely to get closest to the 75 average we need for them to be relevant, but with Will Day sidelined, don’t discount Mackenzie.

Get more SuperCoach tips from Swiz on the SuperCoach Insider podcast and on Twitter @swiz26.

Originally published as SuperCoach AFL 2024: How to make tough calls on value picks