SuperCoach 2017: Are pre-season stars smart picks or disasters waiting to happen?

ZACH Tuohy, Jack Steele and Josh Kelly dominated the pre-season competition — but we’ve seen that before and been burnt in the real thing. Is this year different?

Geelong recruit Zach Tuohy.

THE curtain has finally come down of the JLT Series, our SuperCoach dress rehearsal, and we’re less than a week from the first bounce before Richmond and Carlton tee off proceedings for season 2017.

This year, like those gone past, we’ve been blessed with some impressive performances, breakout players and a breadth of tantalising prospects, often awkwardly priced, who have raised the eyebrows of many coaches.

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The pre-season competition has historically been the source of many triumphant SuperCoach decisions, but it has also derailed the hopes of many seasoned coaches.

Let me remind you of Heritier Lumumba, the dashing Demon who was picked in SuperCoach teams across the land after an amazing 2015 NAB Cup which he averaged 120 points per game.

When the “real” stuff kicked off, Lumumba failed to register a SuperCoach pulse with an average of 63.4 points across his 19 frustrating games.

This time last year Patrick Dangerfield, Matt Priddis, Aaron Hall and Jesse Lonergan were the stars of the pre-season — a real mixed bag in SuperCoach.

So will this year’s JLT heroes turn out to be smart picks or Lumumba-style disasters?

JACK STEELE ($347,100 fwd/mid, JLT average: 106)

The buzz player of the JLT sent hearts a flutter with his seamless transition into the Saints’ engine room and 155 points in JLT2 against a lacklustre Carlton outfit.

Steele is an interesting prospect and a player who has clearly been starved of senior opportunity given the embarrassment of midfield riches stockpiled by the Giants.

In his rare forays on to an AFL ground, many of which were affected by the green subs vest, Steele has managed to average only 63.4 points across 17 games.

He has, however, built serious pedigree in the NEAFL competition with season averages of 117 (2014), 129 (2015) and 158 (2016) drawing direct comparisons with the Hawthorn (and former Sydney) star Tom Mitchell.

Many are tipping him to average north of 90 points; myself included, but is this amount of improvement actually feasible?

In my opinion, we’re about to witness Callan Ward Mark II.

ZACH TUOHY ($443,200 defender, JLT average: 111)

The revelation of the JLT Series and the answer to Geelong’s defensive prayers following the retirement of Corey Enright.

Tuohy has been a picture of consistency this pre-season and appears the logical heir apparent to Enright as the Geelong quarterback and go-to-man for all attacking forays.

He’s galloped out of the Cats defence, picking up 33 (87 per cent efficiency), 27 (88 per cent) and 25 (88 per cent) disposals across the JLT Series and, importantly, hitting targets with his elite kicking skills.

Like Steele, Tuohy’s historical SuperCoach prowess has not been of the highest order, with his career-best season, 2016, registering an average of 81.3 points.

The Cats have top-four aspirations and Patrick Dangerfield has declared they’ll use Tuohy at every possible opportunity, which suggests to me he’s capable of raising his average to 90-92 points per game.

If he was still wearing a Carlton jersey, I’d suggest his JLT form is a trap, but with new digs at Kardinia Park the sky’s the limit for the talented Irishman.

Zach Tuohy has thrived after his move from Carlton to Geelong.

JAKE LLOYD ($460,200 defender, JLT average: 104)

Lloyd’s pre-season may not have been as emphatic as Tuohy’s, but he’s destined to become the linchpin of the Swans defence with his explosive rebound and pinpoint kicking.

The appeal of Lloyd, over the obvious allure of Tuohy, is the trajectory of his SuperCoach scoring over the past three seasons — 58.3 (2014, debut), 68.7 (2015) and 84.6 points (2016).

Astute coaches will recall the young Swan coming of age between Round 20 and the Grand Final when his SuperCoach average skyrocketed to 99.4 following a change in role.

During this golden streak, Lloyd generated scores of 114, 96, 108, 95, 99, 81 and 103, rubberstamping himself as a breakout prospect for 2017.

He’s priced rather awkwardly, so if you’re adventurous enough to proceed with Lloyd you’ll be banking on him averaging north of 95 points in 2017.

JOSH KELLY ($473,800 midfielder, JLT average: 114)

Kelly is absolute class and many will find this audacious, but I expect him to become the Giants’ most damaging midfielder, as early as 2017.

He’s cut from the same cloth as Marcus Bontempelli, and was in fact chosen ahead of him as the No. 2 pick in the 2013 national draft.

Kelly’s 2016 campaign was solid, averaging 86.9 points, but it’s manner with which he’s attacked that JLT Series that has set tongues wagging with scores of 151, 87 and 101.

The second JLT match, where he tallied 87 points, resonates with me the most.

In torrential rain and less than a half of football, Kelly demonstrated his uncapped potential with a clinical display that included 16 disposals (75 per cent disposal efficiency) and a goal against the Swans.

If he boasted midfield-forward eligibility, I’d pick him in a heartbeat but with the suite of underpriced midfielders available (Dayne Beams, Jaeger O’Meara, Marc Murphy), I think he’ll unfortunately be overlooked by the masses.

Put this on record, though, Kelly will explode in 2017 and elevate himself into the echelon where only extreme premiums dare tread.

GWS midfield jet Josh Kelly. Picture: Phil Hillyard

Clayton Oliver has had a brilliant pre-season. Picture: Wayne Ludbey

CLAYTON OLIVER ($382,500 midfielder, JLT average: 109)

The draft bolter announced himself on the competition in Melbourne’s upset victory against the Giants in Round 1 last year.

Earning himself a NAB Rising Star nomination on debut, Oliver took Ryan Griffen and the vaunted GWS midfield to the cleaners — at one stage, receiving the ultimate accolade, a tag.

His JLT form — 101, 103 and 122 — suggest he’s clearly on the verge of his breakout year, but can we trust a 19-year-old to average more than 100 points when the “real” stuff kicks off next week?

Across his 13 games in 2016, Oliver averaged 69.8 points, which strikingly did not include any scores beyond the magic century mark — his best was 98 against Hawthorn (Round 20).

The issue with Oliver, despite his brazen attack on the football, is that more often than not he opts for the handball (1 kick: 2.2 handballs) and the gurus at Champion Data, unfortunately, prefer to reward disposals that originate from your left and right peg.

They say he’s trimmed down, but I can’t see him raising his humble average by more than 30 points following one pre-season.

He’s a JLT trap at this stage of his career, but don’t get me wrong — the Dees have an absolute gem and midfield beast in their midst.

Daniel Begala’s team The Bigala Brigade has finished in the top 100 of overall SuperCoach rankings the past two years. He is a regular guest on The SuperCoaches Box podcast every Tuesday

Originally published as SuperCoach 2017: Are pre-season stars smart picks or disasters waiting to happen?