SuperCoach 2016: Are you brave enough to pick the players history says you shouldn’t

HISTORY says don’t pick these guys in your SuperCoach team. Ever. But sometimes you need to defy history to win. Are you brave enough?

SUPERCOACH is a game of risk and reward. You need to take some risks to jump ahead of the pack by finding players who will score above their starting value.

But sometimes the risk is just too big, and the reward far from proven.

We’re not going to take pot shots at players who are always going to score badly due to their age or role in the team — like the remarkably consistent Zac Dawson, who has averaged 55 or less in eight of his nine seasons at AFL level — these are the guys who tempt us every year with their potential to score big, only to repeatedly let us down.

Will we be sucked in yet again? Last year, Shaun Higgins proved historical trends can be broken, putting years of injury breakdowns behind him to be one of the best picks of 2015.

But for every Higgins success there are a trail of disasters that we should have seen coming - remember Heritier Lumumba?

Here are the players history says we should cross off our recruiting list.

DALE THOMAS (Carl) $308,700 Mid/Fwd

How many of us got burnt last year? Daisy said he was over his ankle injuries and looked set for a big season ... until he popped his shoulder in the opening seconds of the season. Again, Thomas is said to be injury-free and flying and that price is very tempting. But can we trust him?

NICK MALCESKI (GC) $383,800 Def

After dominating off the half-back line for Sydney in 2014, many thought Malceski was a must-have last year. Unfortunately, injury and form cruelled the attacking half-back’s first season on the Gold Coast, with his SuperCoach scoring crashing by 34 points a game. He has averaged over 100 just twice in an 11-year career. He’s had three knee operations. No thanks.

Nick Malceski training with the Gold Coast Suns. Picture: David Clark

MATTHEW LEUENBERGER (Ess) $310,700 Ruck/Fwd

Potentially a top-scoring ruckman when he’s fully fit but injuries have cruelled his whole career.

However, that’s hasn’t worried 13 per cent of coaches who have picked the big man this season. Leuenberger is dealing with an ongoing Achilles injury, has yet to make a pre-season apperance and isn’t necessarily the Bombers’ No.1 ruckman. Massive risk.

SHANE MUMFORD (GWS) $570,500 Ruck

It hurts us to put Mummy on this list. The Giants’ ruckman has undoubted scoring power but you just know he’s going to cost you a trade at some stage in the season. Pick him at your peril but if he remains healthy, he’s a SuperCoach superstar.

JACK WATTS ($Melb) 381,000 Mid/Fwd

The former No.1 pick looked ready to explode when his average went from 53 in 2010 to 75 in 2011 and 86 in 2012. Sadly, it has regressed every year since, going from 76 to 74 and 70 last year. Teases us every pre-season and he’s showing signs again, but pick at your own risk. Having said that, if he plays across half-back he’s worth considering.

Jack Watts’ SuperCoach scoring has regressed the past three years. Picture: Wayne Ludbey

JACK TRENGOVE (Melb) $156,500 Mid

We don’t understand how Trengove is currently in 9 per cent of teams. The former captain is still running laps at Melbourne training and is some way off a return to AFL football. He hasn’t made an apperance at senior level since Round 2, 2014 and let’s not forget his best SuperCoach season was 2011, when he averaged 87.

NATHAN FREEMAN (StK) $123,900 Mid

We feel sorry for Freeman. The former top-10 draft pick just can’t get his body right. The Saints are hopeful he’s over his hamstring injuries, but he’s not expected to play for another six weeks or so. Inexplicably, still in 10 per cent of teams.

CHARLIE DIXON (PA) $376,700 Fwd

Remember 2013? Charlie was tearing up the competition and averaging 90 SuperCoach points. You might forget he played only 13 games that year. In fact, he’s never played more than 16 games in a single season. Perhaps a change of scenery will do the job.

Port Adelaide recruit Charlie Dixon. Picture: Sarah Reed

BRAD CROUCH (Adel) $306,100 Mid

The golden boy of SuperCoach 2016. We all hope Crouch gets his body right and returns to the field due to his undoubted talent. However, he didn’t play a game in 2015, only 11 in 2014 and 14 the year before, battling chronic foot problems and now off-field discipline issues. Despite all that, if he’s healthy, he’s almost a must-have.

DANIEL WELLS (NM) $243,900 Mid/Fwd

Another who, like Crouch, everyone hopes can get healthy. A proven SuperCoach scorer who has consistently averaged 90-plus with a top of 104 in 2011. However, he’s played only nine games in the past two years. Is this the year he’s back to his best? Has been managed very carefully by the Roos but what we’ve seen in the pre-season is very promising.

Originally published as SuperCoach 2016: Are you brave enough to pick the players history says you shouldn’t