KFC SuperCoach trade guide: Expert advice on top targets for Round 3
Will Max Gawn bounce back or is there a more worrying trend? Champion Data’s Fantasy Freako digs into the numbers to help decide the best moves in KFC SuperCoach.
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It’s movement week in KFC SuperCoach ahead of round 3 as we look to make those all-important correction trades.
Whether it’s a rookie you’ve missed out on, or you’re looking to punt an underperformer – this is the week to make the move before prices change.
Before you make your trades though, keep one thing in the back of your mind. Trading a premium is always a risk, and there’s every chance that is blows up in your face. It’s the classic risk v reward move.
The two players causing SuperCoaches plenty of heartache ahead of Round 3 are Lachie Whitfield and Max Gawn. Both have underperformed in the opening two rounds and the alarm bells are ringing at high decibels, but is it enough to offload them?
Whitfield has made his worst start to a season since 2014, averaging just 71 points. To put that figure into perspective, Paddy McCartin and Dylan Stephens have both exceeded that – averaging 75 and 77 respectively.
Gawn, on the other hand, has made his second-worst start to a season on record after the opening two rounds – averaging 90 points (he averaged 89 way back in 2016). If we take a closer look at the numbers, there has been an obvious decline in almost every category, but the most concerning of all is his ball use. Overall, his disposal efficiency of 50 per cent is currently a career-low and 12 per cent below 2021. If we compare that figure to other ruckmen, it’s clearly the worst and 6 per cent below anyone else.
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Gawn’s kicking efficiency has plummeted to 42 per cent, once again a career-low. But looking at disposal and kicking efficiency in isolation may not paint the truest picture. We need to look at how the player is winning the ball and with Gawn, he has won 12 contested possessions per game which is currently a career-high and the most by any ruckman. If you’re winning the ball in tight, then ball use will suffer and that’s exactly the case with Gawn.
His ruck numbers have suffered a similar fate, with both hitout win rate and hitout-to-advantage percentage dropping considerably. In terms of ruck contests attended, there hasn’t been a major change – attending 53 per game this year compared to 55 in 2021.
From a positional point of view, Gawn has spent 30 per cent of game time up forward, which is an increase from 18 per cent in 2021. Adding to that is Luke Jackson getting more ruck time, up to 43 per cent this year from 37 per cent last season.
So basically, Gawn not as effective in the ruck, his ball use isn’t great and he’s spending more time forward. SuperCoaches have a huge decision to make this week.
So, what’s the play ahead of round 3? Do we punt Gawn and pick him up at a later time when his price falls, or do we save a trade and just hope he recaptures his form? It’s a tough question to answer and at the end of the day, it all depends how many other correction trades you need to make.
Whatever you decide, you need to own your decision either way!
ROOKIE WATCH
After the highs of Round 1, we endured plenty of lows with our rookies last week as most returned sub-60 points. Not disastrous by any stretch, as we need to accept that scoring will always be inconsistent with younger players.
With prices changing after round 3 there are several rookies to target this week, led by Jack Hayes. The one caveat with Hayes is that Paddy Ryder is every chance to return in round 3 and his inclusion may reduce Hayes’ ruck minutes. But irrespective of that, the points should still tick over – he still scored 68 last round despite failing to hit the scoreboard and taking just one contested mark.
Paddy McCartin is another player to target. He has made a terrific start to his Swans career, taking 11 intercept marks after two rounds – ranked equal-first in the competition. He took five intercept marks in the first term alone last week against the Cats.
Teammate Dylan Stephens is also set for a decent price rise after collecting 95 points. His role on the wing looks assured after playing close to 100 per cent game time in that position over the first two rounds.
But the pick of the rookies looks to be Tristan Xerri. It’s obvious after two rounds that he’s the preferred ruckman at the Kangaroos, attending a total of 97 ruck contests to Todd Goldstein’s 61. If we break these down, Xerri has attended 25 centre bounces compared to Goldstein’s 20, but it’s around the ground where the gap is greater. Xerri has attended 72 around-the-ground stoppages compared to Goldstein’s 41.
If you own Josh Ward like myself, a switch to Xerri via a DPP could pay dividends, as one would expect Xerri to make considerably more money than Ward.
One player we don’t have to target this week is Nic Martin after he missed round 2 due to health and safety protocols. His price won’t change until after his next match, so we get another look at him this Friday night against Melbourne.
As always, trade wisely and best of luck ahead of Round 3!
Trade guide: All this week’s top targets
– Al Paton and Tim Michell
The biggest week of the KFC SuperCoach season is almost here — and it’s never been more important to get Round 3 right.
With the addition of the trade boost, KFC SuperCoaches have up to three trades to be used ahead of the first price changes of the season.
If you missed any of the key rookies, it’s likely now or never.
But just as importantly, you don’t want to miss out on the mid-price gems who seem destined to emerge, or in some cases re-emerge, as premium scorers this year.
And with value everywhere there are some huge choices to make before the next lockout on Thursday night.
Scroll down to see all the best round 3 targets and how to get them in your team.
FORCED TRADES
Owners of Bomber midfielder Zach Merrett ($625,700 MID) will have to trade him out after he was diagnosed with an ankle injury that could sideline him for two months. The other big injury on the weekend was to Fremantle ruckman Sean Darcy ($642,600 RUC), who limped off, came back on and was then subbed out of the Dockers’ clash against St Kilda. The severity of the injury isn’t yet clear but owners who held on when Darcy missed the first round might want to think about another option after yet another injury issue.
North Melbourne’s Tarryn Thomas ($459,300 MID/FWD)faces at least a month on the sidelines after suffering internal bruising from an attempted smother.
And if you are one of the 41,000 coaches who held onto Dustin Martin ($503,500 MID/FWD) you can afford to wait until later in the week to see if we get a clearer picture of the Tiger superstar’s possible return. If he misses again next week a trade is the best option, with no shortage of potential replacements after an incredible first two rounds.
MUST-HAVE ROOKIES
We’ve been saying for weeks that getting the rookies right is the most important part of setting up your KFC SuperCoach team for a successful season, and this week is a great chance to make sure you have the top cheapies in your squad before their prices start to skyrocket.
If you don’t have one of Jack Hayes ($102,400 RUC/FWD), Nick Daicos ($193,800 MID), Jason Horne-Francis ($207,300 MID), Paddy McCartin ($157,800 DEF/FWD), Dylan Stephens ($167,800 MID), Mitch Hinge ($180,900 DEF), or Josh Rachele ($184,800 FWD/MID) they should be your priority targets this week. You could add Hawk Connor MacDonald ($117,300 MID) to the list given the lack of depth on our midfield benches.
These are the players who will shoot up in value and fund your future trades – Hayes has a Break Even of -135 and could increase in value by more than $100,000 next week based on SuperCoach Plus projections.
That will be a huge help when trying to buy extra premiums as the season progresses, but money saved by downgrading a failed mid-price pick to a rookie now can help make some other big moves this week.
Stay tuned for our full rookie bible which will rate all the cheapies before round 3.
HOT STARTERS
Patrick Cripps $454,800 MID, Break Even: -28
The Carlton captain is about to surge past $500,000 after opening the season with two dominant outings and scores of 132 and 162 KFC SuperCoach points. The last time Cripps was worth more than $600,000 was Round 4, 2020 but it might only be a few weeks before he eclipses that mark after blitzing Richmond and Western Bulldogs in the first two rounds. The Phantom might have been onto something when he declared Cripps was not only back, but playing better football than he ever had. The only questions you need ask yourself before jumping on are: Do you think his body will withstand a full season and do you think he can be a top-eight to top-10 midfielder? If the answer to those two questions is yes, don’t miss out before Cripps’ price surges. How to get there might be tricky – the easiest way will be to dump an underperforming premium, while you could also split two mid-pricers like Jarrod Berry and Mitch McGovern for Cripps and a rookie – pending cash in the bank.
Isaac Heeney $454,500 FWD-MID, BE -15
Like Cripps, Heeney has been a player with huge question marks over his KFC SuperCoach legitimacy in recent seasons. Playing predominantly forward, Heeney appeared to have a ceiling of about a 95-point average. But the Swans dynamo has clearly been given greater freedom this year and has opened the campaign with scores of 141 and 140 against GWS and Geelong. Heeney spent more than 50 per cent of time against the Cats in the defensive half and 11 of his 21 possessions were contested. He doesn’t need big disposal numbers to score big and it appears once Heeney hits 20 disposals, you can all but guarantee a ton. On the evidence from the opening two rounds he might be the top-ranked forward of 2022 and his price is about to rocket past $500,000. It also seems likely he will gain DPP status as FWD-MID after Round 6.
George Hewett $399,000 DEF-MID, BE: -15
Those who doubted whether Hewett could transfer his pre-season KFC SuperCoach scoring into the regular season have been emphatically silenced. Hewett has had 28 and 32 disposals in his opening two games in navy blue, recording scores of 131 and 117 in the first two rounds. The contested nature of his game is built for KFC SuperCoach and 31 of Hewett’s 60 disposals in the first two rounds were contested. KFC SuperCoaches have had a chance to assess him with both Adam Cerra (Round 1) and Sam Walsh (Round 2) in the team. Both haven’t played in the same team as Hewett together yet, but it seems unlikely to have a major impact on Hewett’s role. In fact, there were stages of Thursday’s game against the Bulldogs that Walsh was pushed out to a wing for Cripps, Hewett and Matt Kennedy to bulldoze their way out of the middle. If you have a battling defensive premium and overlooked Hewett at the start of the year, make more than $100,000 and jump on before Hewett’s price launches north.
Lachie Neale $543,200 MID, BE -20
The Lions star was a popular starting selection, featuring in just over 50 per cent of teams after starting the season severely underpriced compared to his Brownlow medal winning year. And two rounds in, it’s clear we can wipe a disappointing 2021 season from the books. Neale is the No.1 scoring player in KFC SuperCoach after a massive 198 points against the Bombers, following a 140 in round 1. His price won’t be that low for long – get on!
Andy Brayshaw $584,300 MID, BE 26
Brayshaw is in just 6 per cent of teams but almost matched Neale, piling on 189 points against the Saints in the final game of the weekend to sit second for overall points after two rounds. The anticipated “Brayshaw breakout” is clearly on and the Dockers gun is about to join the elite bracket of KFC SuperCoach midfielders in a hurry. He’s not a must-trade this round but definitely put him on your wish list when upgrades come around. While you’re taking notes, add Christian Petracca ($606,200 MID), who has recorded 39, 38 and 40 disposals in his past three matches.
Touk Miller $677,800 MID, BE: 119
If you want reliable high-level output that let’s you sleep easy at night, look no further. Miller caught fire in round 6 last season, scoring 100 or more points in every game since. He has started 2022 with scores of 137 and 140 – following 140 and 149 in the pre-season. You just know what you’re going to get – hard-running for 100-plus minutes every week, a stack of the footy and possibly the No.1 KFC SuperCoach midfielder for the season. You’re going to need him at some stage, the only question is when. You can put Jack Macrae ($699,900 MID) in the same category after scores of 133 and 142 to start the year.
Zak Butters $443,600 FWD, BE: 9
The hype is real! Butters was talked up all pre-season in KFC SuperCoach circles and has more than delivered in the opening two rounds with scores of 114 and 136, making him the No.2 forward for the year so far behind Isaac Heeney. And we have learned he doesn’t have to play in a winning team to score well.
Aaron Hall $572,900 DEF, BE: 83
Coaches brave enough to pick Hall after he missed both of North Melbourne’s pre-season games with a hamstring injury have been hugely rewarded. He’s the No.1 scoring defender, putting up a 129 and 123 in the opening two rounds, numbers familiar to KFC SuperCoaches who owned him last season when he averaged 115.5 points per game after switching the defence in round 7.
VALUE PICKS
Tristan Xerri $208,200 FWD, BE: -77
North Melbourne’s next No.1 ruckman took advantage of a depleted West Coast line-up on Sunday to score 120 KFC SuperCoach points. He will face tougher opposition going forward, but the role is an extremely promising one for SuperCoach scoring especially considering Xerri’s low starting price. An added bonus is he is almost certain to be reclassified as a dual-position RUC/FWD in Round 6, giving your team extra flexibility and insurance if one of your starting rucks is unavailable.
Will Brodie $224,300 FWD/MID, BE: -46
Those unsure of how Brodie will score with Nat Fyfe in the Fremantle team might still have reservations, but we have enough of a sample size to say Brodie is going to be a great KFC SuperCoach pick in 2022. After topping 100 points in each of his two pre-season matches, Brodie has scored 79 and 101 in the real thing, with his inside game suited to the SuperCoach scoring system even if he gets less minutes on the ground than other players. He ranks second at Fremantle for disposals, contested possessions and tackles this year – behind Andy Brayshaw in each of those categories.
Tim English $482,600 RUC-FWD, BE: 60
The Western Bulldogs ruckman has so far delivered on the pre-season hype and set the platform for a breakout campaign. Playing as the sole ruckman with Stefan Martin missing in the opening two weeks of 2022, English has managed KFC SuperCoach scores of 123 and 99, putting himself firmly in the discussion to be a top-six forward. While he’s unlikely to push the top scorers in the rucks, English only needs to average 100-110 to be in the mix to be one of the premier forwards this season. He had 20 disposals in Round 1 and outscored Max Gawn and 24 disposals and 21 hit outs against Carlton. If you’re worried about burning through trades or having to punt one of your premium rucks if they miss due to health and safety protocols, English is a smart buy who provides strong insurance. An even more radical play could be to downgrade a top-line ruckman like Max Gawn – who is about to drop in value with a break even of 204 – to grab the Dogs big man.
SO, WHO GOES OUT?
With so many great options to choose from, fitting them into your team is a major challenge. Some players will have to be traded out to add new recruits, and coaches who traded out proven premiums like Jack Crisp and Jack Steele after one poor game found out quickly how that can come back to haunt you, with both scoring 110-plus in round 2.
Lots of mid-prices are scoring well this season, but we can call some failed selections already.
Heath Chapman’s ($275,200 DEF) famous game-saving spoil helped him post 80 points in round 1 but a 56 in round 2 isn’t what his owners were hoping for. With a Break Even of 25 he will make some money, but probably not as much as some might have hoped. Tiger Liam Baker ($449,300 DEF) put up a huge score in the pre-season but has just 116 points in total in the first two rounds while Cam Rayner ($278,600 FWD) is averaging just 49 points.
Carlton has made a flying start to 2022 but one player who missed the party last Thursday was Mitch McGovern ($256,000 FWD), who scored just 40 points from 12 disposals and five marks (many of those came very late in the game). Selected in more than 21,000 teams, McGovern has a Break Even of 40 which he is more than capable of achieving with a friendly role as an intercepting defender. The issue could be if he doesn’t post a big score soon he’s going to be a very slow burn while other similarly priced players (Xerri, Brodie) race to a big profit.
Another tricky call in Brisbane’s Jarrod Berry ($268,500 MID). Based on his low starting value he will make his 36,000 owners money – his Break Even this week is just 14. But after scores of 67 and 76 he could be a central piece in a trade puzzle to go down to a rookie you missed or up to a mid-pricer like Cripps or Matt Rowell.
POD WATCH
Errol Gulden $415,600 FWD, BE: 32
Yes, Phantom, you were right again. Our great friend suggested in pre-season that Gulden was a player he was seriously considering for his KFC SuperCoach team. Gulden has vindicated Phantom’s faith was scores of 97 and 114 to start the year, a brilliant return for about 2000 teams who took the punt on one of last year’s rookie heroes. If you’re looking for a player to set your team apart while others jump on the Blues and Heeney, Gulden is a leading contender. Like Heeney, he has been pushing further up the ground and will be in the mix for FWD-MID dual-position status. Most KFC SuperCoaches won’t need to be reminded of Gulden’s ceiling after he produced one of the great debuts as a popular rookie last season.
Ben Keays $560,400 MID, BE: 51
Keays features in just 1 per cent of KFC SuperCoach sides but they would be very pleased with themselves after he put up scores of 128 and 149 in the first two rounds. The return of Rory Laird from injury might reduce his share of Adelaide’s midfield pie but he is clearly a prime mover now in the middle for the Crows.
DPP WATCH
LOCK IT IN
Tristan Xerri FWD to RUC-FWD
Isaac Heeney FWD to MID-FWD
Mitch McGovern FWD to DEF-FWD
Xerri has been the first-choice ruckman for North Melbourne in the first two rounds, attending 51 ruck contests in Sunday’s win over West Coast. Xerri had 24 hitouts against the Eagles, who were without Nic Naitanui. He attended 10 centre bounces, equal with Todd Goldstein. With a low break even, this is the week to jump on and he can provide ruck cover from round 7 onwards when he gains DPP status.
Heeney has been the topscoring forward of the opening two rounds and his heat map from Friday night’s clash against Geelong shows he won most of his 21 disposals outside the attacking 50. McGovern is playing exclusively as a defender this season and seems certain to be among the first DPP changes in KFC SuperCoach. He didn’t score well against Western Bulldogs, but that swing could be valuable if you have Sam De Koning, Patrick McCartin or plan to eventually bring in Keidean Coleman.
LIKELY CHANGES
Nick Daicos MID to DEF-MID
Luke McDonald MID to DEF-MID
Jason Horne Francis MID to FWD-MID
Daicos was predominantly used in a defensive role against Adelaide, but pushed forward to have 12 of his 22 disposals outside the back 50. He only needs to spend 35 per cent of game time in defence to gain DPP status, so is still likely to become DPP after Round 6. Luke McDonald ($372k MID) is back playing the defensive role which turned him into a premium scorer two seasons ago, and although he has Jack Ziebell and Aaron Hall to compete with for points, he has shown in the first two rounds how much the switch benefits his scoring. Horne-Francis attended 12 centre bounces against the Eagles and might not be the certainty KFC SuperCoaches thought to gain forward status. It still seems likely, but is worth monitoring in coming rounds.
ON WATCH
Dayne Zorko MID to DEF-MID
Joel Selwood MID to FWD-MID
Errol Gulden FWD to FWD-MID
Brisbane Lions skipper Dayne Zorko ($595k MID) averaged 109.4 last season when he was listed as a FWD-MID. But Chris Fagan has deployed his skipper in a half-back role and although Zorko flopped in Round 1, he bounced back with a score of 116 against Essendon. He has a huge break even this round of 206, and is projected to be about $500k when DPP changes take effect after round 6. Zorko had 11 disposals in the defensive arc against the Bombers and only five of his 33 total were in the attacking half. He becomes a serious option if he’s DPP before round 7.
Most KFC SuperCoaches would think Joel Selwood’s ($549k MID) days as a trade option are behind him, which is probably true. But gaining FWD status would at least put him back in the conversation. Scores of 83 and 66 to start the season aren’t overly inspiring, but if his price is dropping and DPP is added, he could be a POD option for F6. The Phantom was all over Gulden in pre-season and after being largely consigned to a forward 50 role last year, he has played all over the ground for the Swans. He even had six CBAs against Geelong, so mid status seems likely at Round 7.
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Originally published as KFC SuperCoach trade guide: Expert advice on top targets for Round 3
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