KFC SuperCoach: Fantasy Freako’s Round 9 form guide, trade advice
Choosing the right time to jump on a fallen premium is a KFC SuperCoach artform. Our experts rank four of the best options for round 9 in this week’s trade guide. Plus, exclusive Champion Data kick-in stats.
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As soon as a behind is kicked the first thing I look for is which player is taking the kick-in, and if the player I own isn’t taking it — I look at his positioning and hope that he receives either a handball from a kick-in play on, or he takes an easy uncontested mark. It’s what we do as SuperCoaches.
If my player does take the kick-in and he chooses not to play on then I ask myself the question, why didn’t you just play on? An effective kick-in from within the goal square is worth just one point, while an effective kick after you play on is worth four three – there’s a three-point difference and they all add up in the end. All ineffective kick-ins are worth zero points – while a kick-in clanger is worth -4 points.
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As soon as a player steps over the line and decides to play on after a kick-in, then all disposals are then considered to be in general play in terms of scoring. It’s the preferred tactic all SuperCoaches desire as I’ve outlined above.
Picking players based on kick-in duties isn’t essential, but it does provide you with an additional avenue to scoring, especially if you haven’t had a touch for some time.
If we look at which players rely on kick-ins the most from an overall disposal point of view, then it’s Steven May. Overall, 41 per cent of his disposals have come from playing on from kick-ins – the highest percentage in the AFL. Shanon Hurn (36 per cent) and Isaac Cumming (33 per cent) are the next highest.
Below are the top-10 in terms of percentage of disposals from kick-ins:
If we look at raw disposals after a kick-in play on, then Jack Ziebell is the clear standout – with 8.6 of his 25.4 disposals coming from kick-ins – the most of any player in the AFL. He played on from eight of nine kick-ins last round and had a feast in defence – finishing with a season-high 36 disposals and a career-high 18 marks and 179 points. If you owned him – it would have made for great viewing.
Hurn is next best (8.0) and Cumming (6.6) round out the top-three.
Below are the top-10 for disposals per game from kick-in play on:
If we look at using this data to aid us with SuperCoach trades – then Jack Ziebell is the most obvious player to bring in. He gained DPP status ahead of Round 6 and he only has one score under 90 all year. When he last played in defence in 2021, he averaged 108 and he averages 111 this season – that ranks him No.1 among forwards and fourth among defenders.
ROUND 9 ROOKIES: WHO TO CULL, HOLD
Quite a few rookies’ expiry dates have come up, and this is the time to jump ship. The likes of Alwyn Davey (31), Fergus Greene (17), Liam Jones (41), Jacob van Rooyen (48), Kade Chandler (57) and Reuben Ginbey (61) all need to be culled, while you could also consider turning Will Ashcroft (37) into a premium.
But in the case of Chandler and Ashcroft – they average 93 and 94 points respectively at their home deck – so playing then another week is also an option.
So, where do you go?
Josh Weddle will be a popular downgrade option this week ahead of his third match — but he hasn’t lit it up from a scoring point of view — managing 38 and 54 in two games. Job security shouldn’t be an issue – but the Hawks have used 34 players after eight rounds (third-most of any team) – with just 11 playing in every game. So, based on that alone – expect plenty of changes at Hawthorn weekly.
more reliable downgrade option would be Rory Atkins – but you’ll have to pay over $200k to snap him up. Plus, as we have seen in the past – he has been sparingly used in his time at the Suns – so there are no guarantees that he holds his place in the team – especially in the long term. Lachie Weller has already been ruled out for Round 9 and despite a loss last week, Atkins could hold for another week. One of the main beneficiaries of owning a Suns player is that they have a very favourable bye round.
Another pricey rookie – Brodie Kemp will set you back close to $250k – but it’s not ideal having to pay that much, and more importantly, you don’t get full value for the rookie you’re trading out.
Despite already jumping in price, Alex Cincotta does still have value as a cash cow as he still has a BE of -57. That would ensure he has at least three more price rises.
That leaves one-gamers Thomas Berry and Blake Drury to consider. Both ticked over 50 points in Round 8 and of the two, Drury is cheaper and is a DPP – so he could be the one to go for if you are choosing between the two.
As for potential debutants, it will be interesting to see who the Bombers turn to for the injured Jordan Ridley. Zach Reid was an emergency on the weekend, but he suffered a hamstring injury, which leaves Rhett Montgomerie as the alternative.
He had 24 disposals, five intercept marks, 15 intercept possessions and 103 points in the VFL on the weekend.
ROUND 9 TRADE GUIDE: UNLIKELY ROOKIE SAVIOUR EMERGES
Tim Michell, Al Paton and Dan Batten
This might be one of the biggest weeks of the KFC SuperCoach season.
While there are a host of great fallen premiums on offer, cash generation is getting harder as rookies such as Kade Chandler, Will Ashcroft and Jacob van Rooyen near their peak.
Van Rooyen has been suspended for two weeks which makes him an easy trade, although the options to downgrade to are hard to pinpoint.
Rory Atkins will be popular but is $203k, which limits the profit you make from any trade.
Blake Drury ($102k FWD-MID) is at the opposite end of the rookie price scale but has played only one game.
He showed encouraging signs on debut, but the longheld rule in KFC SuperCoach is to try to avoid trading for rookies before they are on the bubble (after two games).
Whatever way you go could have a huge impact on how your team fares through the most crucial (and daunting) period of the year – the byes.
But if you get it right this week, you can give your team a crucial edge and start your rise up the overall rankings.
Check out our best trade targets for round 9 below.
TOP TARGETS
Rory Atkins $203,900 DEF-MID
There are several reasons to seriously consider Atkins this week, but none more important than bye coverage. Atkins has returned from the AFL wilderness with 25 and 22 disposals in the past two weeks, playing the role which Charlie Constable started the year in as a small defender. That switch has been beneficial for his KFC SuperCoach output. Over his career, Atkins’ best season was 2017 when he averaged 79. The ex-Crow has played only 23 AFL games in the past four years yet looms as one of this week’s best money-making options eith so few rookies on the bubble. If he can average 80 from now until the end of the byes, Atkins would make about $150k. He could be crucial during rounds 12, 14 and 15 as the Suns and Geelong are the only teams with the round 13 bye. He played on from each of his five kick-ins against Melbourne, although those opportunities came without Lachie Weller in the side. If you’ve got a rookie whose cash generation has stalled, cash in now and enjoy the extra cover Atkins should provide during the bye rounds. Expect him to be one of the most-popular buys ahead of round 9.
Josh Weddle $130,800 DEF
Scores of 38 and 54 wouldn’t normally be enough to catch the eye of KFC SuperCoaches – but this week beggars can’t be choosers. Hawthorn slumped to the bottom of the ladder after its loss to Fremantle on Saturday night and one would imagine Sam Mitchell is going to prioritise getting matches into the club’s young players. Weddle went at 83 per cent from 12 disposals against the Dockers, tallying six intercepts and even taking a kick-out. Don’t expect big scores from him and the cash generation will likely be slow, but if you need a rookie cheaper than Atkins and Kemp this week, Hawthorn’s No.18 pick from last year’s draft is your best bet.
Marcus Bontempelli $725,200 MID
The Western Bulldogs captain has been on another level in the past month and has become the go-to captaincy option in KFC SuperCoach. Bontempelli has scored 145, 182, 122 and 164 in the past four rounds, averaging 153 points from rounds 5-8. He has now scored at least 122 points in six of his eight games this year and has surged past the $700,000 mark. If you’re still a non-owner, it’s hard to see how you would find the cash to grab Bontempelli now. The only option might be to offload an underperforming premium and cash in Will Ashcroft, turning them into Bontempelli and a rookie this week. Paying top dollar for a player goes against one of the most important commandments of KFC SuperCoach, but if Bontempelli continues this scoring run for much longer, your hopes of league wins or overall ranking glory will be over if you don’t have him. For those who do, enjoy the ride. We’re watching one of the special KFC SuperCoach seasons unfold.
Noah Anderson $605,000 MID
Like Bontempelli, he doesn’t fit the brief of a cut-price premium but we have to give a mention to the hottest player in KFC SuperCoach. Anderson scored 144 against Richmond in round 7 and went even better against the Demons in one of the great individual performances of the season. The 22-year-old had 37 disposals, 17 contested possessions, six tackles, six intercepts and a goal to rack up 189 KFC SuperCoach points. Anderson entered round 8 priced at $556k – just $3k above his starting price. His value shot up after that epic performance but his price isn’t out of this world if he can continue this hot run of form. And he has the Eagles this week.
Jack Steele $524,100 MID
Coaches who waited a week on Steele rather than rushing him in hoping for a big score against North Melbourne were vindicated when the Saints skipper logged a solid but far from dominant 95 points at Marvel Stadium, dropping another $13,100. Steele managed just 20 disposals and eight contested possessions, but was helped by high efficiency (80 per cent) and six tackles. His is great value for a player who averaged 120-plus in 2020 and 2021, and 110 last year. But we haven’t seen the best of Steele this season, despite St Kilda’s winning form, with just one score over 100 and three in the 90s. If you need a midfield premo and cash is short he’s got to be at the front of the queue, and with a Break Even of 75 this week this will probably be as cheap as he gets.
Sam Docherty $509,200 DEF
Docherty has been amongst Carlton’s best players in the past two rounds since returning from injury, posting 106 and 111 in a return to the premium scoring KFC SuperCoaches have become accustomed to. A Break Even of 114 in round 8 means he will stay at $509k after having 29 disposals and kicking a goal in Friday night’s loss to Brisbane Lions. While he frustrated coaches earlier this season, Docherty’s form in the past two weeks suggest he’s back to his best. If you’re upgrading in defence to leave room for several possible big-name DPP forward additions before round 12, Docherty should be one of your top targets. There’s no reason he can’t be among the top 6-8 defenders for the rest of the season.
Andrew Brayshaw $531,300 MID
KFC SuperCoaches have been waiting for the type of game Brayshaw produced on Saturday night against Hawthorn. As previous years have shown, the Dockers star has one of the biggest ceilings in KFC SuperCoach, and he returned to his best with one of the highest scores of Round 8 (149 points). Brayshaw was available for more than $100k less than his starting price before having 34 disposals and kicking two goals against the Hawks in a dazzling display. He’s still one of the most underpriced midfield premiums in the game despite a small price rise. With a BE of 54 this week, this is the time to pounce – the only issue this week is Ryan Clarke likely awaits – and we saw what he did to Nick Daicos on Sunday. Although, if Sydney wants to continue with Clarke at half-forward and not change its midfield mix, Hayden Young or Luke Ryan might be in trouble instead.
Callum Mills $523,100 MID
One of the top-scoring midfielders of 2022 (average 116.6) has shed almost $120,000 off his starting price tag after averaging 97.8 over the first eight rounds. That has largely been due to Mills being called on to fill holes in Sydney’s injury-depleted line-up – he stood next to Tom Hawkins at full-back for much of their round 6 encounter against the Cats. Mills hit three figures against Collingwood on Sunday for just the third time this season but he has had three other scores in the 90s and a low of 80 – and one of the biggest ceilings in the comp after smashing out scores of 214, 167 and 147 last season. The selection is all about upside. His centre bounce numbers are trending in the right direction – he had 63 per cent against the Pies after 47 per cent the week before and zero and 10 per cent the two weeks before that.
Darcy Parish $567,900 MID
Needs a lot of disposals to crack the KFC SuperCoach ton, but wins plenty of disposals every week. The Essendon ball magnet has now scored 108-117 in his past four matches, which while not quite in the uber elite category is hugely impressive consistency. In fact, Parish has recorded scores of 108-124 in six of his eight matches this year, rating elite for disposals and contested possessions. He went into Sunday’s match against Port Adelaide with a Break Even of 101 so his price only rose slightly, but it won’t be long before he’s back above $600k if he continues to accumulate possessions at will. Essendon has the tricky round 14 bye but takes on Richmond, West Coast and North Melbourne before then – games where Parish could run riot.
Zach Merrett $582,000 MID
The Bombers captain seems to have been largely forgotten by KFC SuperCoaches, featuring in only 5 per cent of teams. Merrett scored right on his 106 Break Even against Port Adelaide, his fourth ton of the season. In the three games he didn’t reach triple figures, Merrett managed scores of 88, 91 and 92, highlighting his strong scoring floor. As mentioned above, Essendon’s midfielders could really cash in during a run of games against the Tigers, Eagles and Roos, pushing Parish and Merrett up the list of fallen premium priorities this week.
Brodie Kemp $245,400 DEF-FWD
A cash generation crisis means KFC SuperCoaches need to get creative which is why Kemp features in this week’s trade guide. The No.17 pick from the 2019 draft has won his spot back in Carlton’s team in the past two rounds, featuring in defence and producing scores of 93 and 61. His price is the major deterrent despite being shifted into a much more KFC SuperCoach friendly role than he has played throughout his career to date. Being almost $250k would mean you are effectively sideways trading a rookie or missing out on $115k by choosing Kemp over a cheapie on the bubble such as Josh Weddle. In the past two weeks Kemp has had five and seven intercepts, a key stat when it comes to KFC SuperCoach scoring. Most KFC SuperCoaches will go for Atkins rather than Kemp, so you’ll be getting a point of difference if you choose the Blue instead. It’s just how you find the cash to make it work which is likely to be an issue.
Dustin Martin $437,100 FWD/MID
Dusty has been good this season in a pure half-forward role without lighting up the KFC SuperCoach scoresheet. That changed on Saturday with a season-high 113 points, and it’s no coincidence Martin spent more time in the centre square against the Eagles – attending nine centre bounces, keeping him more in the action (even laying four tackles). And he nailed a nice running goal late after a string of misses in recent weeks. Martin dropped $60,000 in value before round 8 despite scoring 80-plus in four of his six games and could be a bargain premium solution if the role continues – and the Tigers can keep winning.
Lachie Whitfield $449,100 DEF/MID
A proven KFC SuperCoach premium of the past, Whitfield is on the ‘never again’ list for many players after recording his lowest season average for six years in 2022. He’s tracking even lower this year but may have turned the corner the past two rounds with scores of 106 against the Swans and 102 against the Bulldogs from 31 disposals, at 81 per cent efficiency, and 10 marks. He has a friendly role off half-back, earned DPP in round 6, is under $450,000 and would be a massive POD – he’s currently owned by only 862 players.
Originally published as KFC SuperCoach: Fantasy Freako’s Round 9 form guide, trade advice
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