KFC SuperCoach Plus Article: Late mail plus 11 things you need to know for Round 20

St Kilda has two big inclusions for the start of KFC SuperCoach finals but there is worrying news from the Giants. Plus 11 secret stats to help your team.

Rowan Marshall and Josh Dunkley have been released from Covid quarantine just in time to provide a huge forward line boost for KFC SuperCoach finals.

Dunkley is still the No.1 averaging forward in 2021 and features in 8 per cent of teams despite playing just one game after returning from a long-term shoulder injury before his shock exposure site visit.

He could provide a big scoring injection for the final four rounds but isn’t cheap, priced at $628,100.

Marshall also missed a large chunk of the season and hit form on his return with scores of 100, 95 and 127 before being ordered into isolation. He presents a tempting trade option at $464,600 if you need a forward or ruckman.

The Saints have an even bigger inclusion from a KFC SuperCoach point of view — Tom Highmore is back after missing one game with a broken left hand.

Highmore remains the 19th-most popular player in SuperCoach, in more than 52,000 teams.

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Rowan Marshall returns against Carlton on Friday night. Picture: Michael Klein

Also back from an enforced Covid quarantine is Swan Callum Mills, who was the No.1 ranked defender before his late withdrawal against the Giants.

Toby Greene is also back and Kyle Langford’s return from injury is welcome news for his 5000 owners.

In rookie news, Hawthorn has named Jai Newcombe on an extended bench for its clash against Brisbane on Sunday — alongside Tyler Brockman. Late-season rookie sensation Lachie Bramble has been named on a half-back flank.

Callum Coleman-Jones is in Richmond’s 25-man squad for its clash against Fremantle, Demon James Jordon has been dropped and James Rowe is back for the Crows — he’s still in more than 35,000 teams.

In a worrying sign for Tim Taranto owners, the GWS midfielder has been named in a forward pocket for Sunday’s clash against Port Adelaide. Taranto played almost exclusively as a forward last week — attending just two centre bounces — and scored a season-low 53 points.

11 SECRET STATS TO HELP YOUR TEAM

With trades dwindling and KFC SuperCoach finals upon us, the hunt is on for any edge against our league and ranking opponents.

KFC SuperCoach Plus is here to help.

Read on to find out the best stats secrets for Round 20 to boost your chances of success.

1. With margins tighter than ever — and the stakes higher than ever — picking the right captain has never been more crucial to our KFC SuperCoach fortunes. The Bulldogs’ clash against Adelaide at Mars Stadium on Saturday will be a focus for many coaches, with Marcus Bontempelli averaging 131.2 in his past three against the Crows including a monster 199 last year. But he might not be the best choice this weekend — or even in that game. Teammate Jack Macrae has an average of 138 in his past three against Adelaide and loves playing in Ballarat — he has played there six times for an average score of 145.3 and a low of 119. The Bont, perhaps surprisingly, averages 99.6 at the venue.

Jack Macrae is a KFC SuperCoach star.

2. Melbourne’s clash against Gold Coast is another potential source of lucrative captaincy options, despite the improved recent form of Stuart Dew’s team. Clayton Oliver loves playing against the Suns — in eight career matches he averages 127.7, including 141.3 over his past three. Max Gawn also jumped back into the captaincy conversation after scoring 125 last week, recording 16 hitouts to advantage in his first score over 103 since Round 13. He has a career average of 127.4 over seven games against Gold Coast, scored 153 the last time they met and is likely to face off against part-time ruckmen Chris Burgess (191cm) and Caleb Graham (195cm). Last round Brisbane ruckman Oscar McInerney (205cm) won the hitouts 39-20 against the Suns pair and scored a career-high 148 KFC SuperCoach points. Gawn is 3cm taller than the Big O.

3. Looking for a point of difference captain? There are more great options in Round 20. Zach Merrett was down last weekend but he averages 130.6 in his past three games against Sydney, including a 159 last year, and averages 111 at the Gabba. Jack Steele scored 136 against Carlton last year and he averages 123.7 at Marvel Stadium this year, while Tom Mitchell could be a great Sunday option if you need to pull something out of the bag to pinch victory late in the round. In six games against Brisbane he has never scored under 100, he averages 144.3 in past three against the Lions and 118.8 in Launceston over 12 matches.

Tom Mitchell has a superb record against the Brisbane Lions.

4. A community service announcement — don’t put the C on these guys this weekend. Brodie Grundy and Patrick Dangerfield are risky options who could pay off but could backfire — Grundy scored 135 against the Eagles in Round 5 but last year he was torched by Nic Naitanui in his worst game of the year, scoring just 61 points. Dangerfield’s 229 against North Melbourne was one of the great KFC SuperCoach performances but that was back in 2016 — in his past two against the Kangas he has scored 89 and 99. And there is a huge red flag above Sam Walsh, who averages 75.7 in three career games against St Kilda, and Dayne Zorko, who scored 52 the last time he faced Hawthorn.

5. Opposition research is a key part of KFC SuperCoach planning especially at this time of year, when studying the fixture is vital to trade and captaincy decisions. But there is more to the story than the current AFL ladder. This year the team conceding the most points to midfielders is Richmond, big for owners of Andrew Brayshaw (R20), Ben Cunnington (R21), Josh Kelly (R22) and Tom Mitchell (R23). The next easiest teams for midfielders to score against are Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Adelaide, Carlton and West Coast. The toughest team for midfielders to score against is Port Adelaide, which has conceded an average of 12 fewer points to mids this year than the Tigers. It’s worth noting Carlton and Sam Walsh faces the Power in KFC SuperCoach preliminary final week, and the final round — KFC SuperCoach Grand Final week — is Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs.

Brodie Grundy found out how costly clangers can be in KFC SuperCoach. Picture: Michael Klein

6. Last week Marcus Bontempelli undid much of his good work with 15 clangers, in Round 19 Brodie Grundy was his own worst enemy when it comes to KFC SuperCoach scoring. Despite recording a season-high 27 disposals against Port Adelaide, the Magpies superstar scored just 85 points. Grundy lost 41 points through negative acts, the second-most by any player in a match this season. They included sharked hitouts, five free kicks against and clanger disposals that cost him 20 points. Demon Christian Petracca was another clanger culprit, costing himself 22 points against the Bulldogs from turnovers and no-pressure mistakes including a dropped mark.

7. Here is some consolation for the 15,000 coaches who traded in Shai Bolton last round on the basis he would spend more time in the Richmond midfield: you were right. Bolton attended 19 centre bounces — the most of any Richmond player — and since the Tigers’ bye he has spent 84 per cent of game time as a midfielder and just 16 per cent as a forward (pre-bye the split was 60/40). Unfortunately, it hasn’t translated into big KFC SuperCoach numbers. From Rounds 15-19 Bolton is rated below average for disposals, contested possessions, clearances and score involvements and poor for groundball gets — which explains a KFC SuperCoach average of 67.2 in that time.

A late-season role change hasn’t helped Tim Taranto’s KFC SuperCoach numbers.

8. Centre bounce numbers have had a big impact on another popular KFC SuperCoach midfielder, Giant Tim Taranto. Against Essendon in the last game of Round 19 Taranto attended just two centre bounces, spending 96 per cent of the match as a forward. There were signs of the move against Sydney in Round 18 when Taranto upped his forward time from 26 per cent over the first 17 rounds to 38 per cent, but his midfield time plummeted from 62 per cent against the Swans to 4 per cent last weekend. He scored a season-low 53 points against the Bombers and has averaged 70.3 in his past three games. In that time his price has dropped more than $70,000 and he is now valued at $453,400 — $300 less than what he cost in Round 1.

9. We aren’t normally shopping for rookies at this stage of the season but the two most popular trade targets this week are both bottom-priced players. Sam Durham ($102,400 DEF/MID) has been snapped up by more than 2500 coaches before his third game, when he is projected to add $53,900 to his price tag. Matt Parker ($141,000 MID/FWD) is also on the bubble and has a break even of -44 before his third game. Price gains are less relevant considering we aren’t likely to trade out these players before the end of the season, but both look to have good job security. Durham is cheaper but Parker might have the best scoring potential — he attended 16 centre bounces against Geelong, equal-second for the Tigers behind Shai Bolton.

Richmond’s mis-season draft pick Matt Parker has made a big impact.

10. Almost 1000 coaches have decided this is the last chance to cash in on Hawthorn rookie bolter Lachie Bramble. The mature-age recruit had to wait until Round 14 to make his AFL debut but has played every game since, averaging 93.5 over his past four. That makes his a viable on-field option but it has pushed his price from $102,400 to $345,100 - trading him to Parker or Durham would free up more than $200,000 to give your team a pre-finals boost in another position.

11. Still time for some more Jack Macrae love. The Bulldogs gun goes about his business with a minimum of fuss but he is quietly elevating himself to KFC SuperCoach hall of fame status. His season averages for the past four years read 127.1, 123.2, 121.0 and 127.5. Insane. This year he has posted just one score under 100 — a 97 in Round 14. And he is finishing the season strong, averaging 132.2 in his past five games with a lowest score in that time of 116. His past three averages against his next three opponents — Adelaide (138), Essendon (130), Hawthorn (116) — make him a great captaincy choice every week. Amazingly, he is actually $6100 cheaper than his starting price, but no one who picked him in Round 1 would be complaining.

Originally published as KFC SuperCoach Plus Article: Late mail plus 11 things you need to know for Round 20