KFC SuperCoach Plus Article: 11 things you need to know for Round 18

Is it time to panic about Max Gawn? Plus Tim Taranto stats, must-see captaincy advice and more — here are the 11 KFC SuperCoach stats you need to know.

As the run home heats up, we need every bit of information to gain an edge on our KFC SuperCoach rivals.

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From price and score projections to the captaincy stat you can’t afford to miss, the topscoring defenders flying under the radar, the Jack Ziebell vs Dayne Zorko battle and an explanation of Tim Taranto’s score against Gold Coast, here are 11 things you need to know for Round 18.

TRADE GUIDE: THIS WEEK’S TOP ROOKIE, PREMIUM TARGETS

1. Should we sound the alarm on Max Gawn? The KFC SuperCoach scoring behemoth has looked more like a mere mortal in the past three rounds with scores of 103, 100 and 102. Simon Goodwin is handing Luke Jackson more responsibility but Max is still involved in the game, collecting 18 disposals, five marks and 31 hitouts against Port Adelaide — all spot on his season averages. Some extra goalkicking work might help, booting 0.4 in the past two weeks. But don’t lose faith. Gawn faces Hawthorn on Saturday — his most favourable match-up of any team, with an average of 142 across seven career games, including 172 and 185 the past two times he has faced the Hawks. KFC SuperCoach Plus is projecting a score of 119, which would result in another small price drop to about $570,000 — what a bargain!

2. Is Tim Taranto a successful 2021 mid-price selection? His owners might have hoped for an average a little higher than 99.8, but it would be harsh to label it a fail after starting the season priced at $453,700. However, his numbers looked a lot better before he scored a season-low 64 against the Suns. Taranto was assigned to more of a defensive role on Touk Miller in the second half and as a result dropped under 20 disposals for the first time this year, gathering just eight after halftime. Taranto accumulated 79.5 points but lost 15.5 of those from negative acts, mostly clanger kicks. His defensive efforts were clearly the highlight of his performance, scoring 35 points from tackles.

Tim Taranto posted his lowest score of the season in Round 17.

3. It’s not often a rookie racks up 120 points, so Lachie Bramble’s 29,000 owners were lapping up his amazing performance against Fremantle — especially those who could get those points on the field. After playing on the wing and forward line in the first half, he was shifted to defence after halftime following an injury to Changkuoth Jiath. Playing as a creator off half-back, Bramble won 17 disposals after halftime, for a total of 27 at 85 per cent efficiency — losing just 5.8 points from two clanger kicks. Bramble’s biggest act of the match was a contested intercept mark that earned him 6.7 points. His price spiked by $67,500 after his fourth match and he has a break even of -68 this week — KFC SuperCoach plus is projecting a score of 75 against the Demons but if he can retain that defensive role, there could be many more points coming.

4. Bramble has the second-lowest break even in the comp behind teammate Ned Reeves, who has been stuck on a -99 BE since playing his second game in Round 11. Of the seven lowest break evens, five didn’t play in Round 17 which makes finding a cheapie worth purchasing difficult — fortunately, not many players are searching for one at this stage of the season. At No.9 on this list is Jeremy Sharp (BE -18), who delivered a $56,400 boost for the 12,000 owners who traded him in last week and is projected to add another $33k after his next game.

Jeremy Sharp (right) has played in two great wins for Gold Coast.

5. Other players with negative break evens include Sharp’s Gold Coast teammate Chris Burgess (-16), who has hit a surprising run of form — especially for anyone who owned him over the first 14 rounds, when he averaged 51.5 points a game. The key forward has scored 98 and 101 in the past two weeks and has now added $99,100 to his starting price. Riley Garcia (-28), Nick Blakey (-11) and Bulldog Lewis Young (-7) are all set to make money after their next game, along with Bomber Archie Perkins, who has a break even of 3 after scoring 101 against Adelaide.

6. At the other end of the break even scale are some of the best picks this season — Marcus Bontempelli (199) and Dayne Zorko (179). The Bont broke the $700k barrier after Round 15 but, like Clayton Oliver before him, his time in the KFC SuperCoach pricing stratosphere lasted just one week. He has lost $40k since then and is projected to drop another $35k with a projected score of 120 against Gold Coast. Meanwhile, a score of 99 in Round 16 put an end to Zorko’s incredible run of seven straight tons and stopped his price rise in its tracks. He is projected to score 140 against Richmond on Friday night but will still lose $17,000.

7. Zorko’s scoring has been a tale of two halves in the past two rounds. In Round 16 against the Crows he managed just 33 points in the first half but scored 80 after the break. He took that form into the clash with the Saints, scoring 67 points in the first half. But things went quiet for Zorko and the Lions after halftime as he managed just 29 more points for the match. His bid to catch No.1 ranked forward Jack Ziebell has gone off the rails slightly — he now trails by 143 with six rounds remaining. Remarkably, only four forwards averaging above 100 this year — the two Zs, Josh Dunkley (who hasn’t played since Round 6) and Patrick Dangerfield (who has played seven matches). The third-best scoring forward on total points is Essendon’s Nick Hind, who averages 94.9 points per game.

Dayne Zorko averaged 143 in a five-round purple patch from Rounds 9-15.

8. Callum Mills was always touted as a future midfielder, and KFC SuperCoach star. It took Sydney coach John Longmire five years to make the move, but it was worth the wait. Stationed at half-back Mills has never spent more than 20 per cent of game time in the midfield before this season — 5 per cent in 2017, 20 per cent in 2018, 2 per cent in 2019 and 16 per cent last year. This year that number has skyrocketed to 87 per cent and the results are clear — a season average of 113.3, ranked No.1 of all defenders (he is 12 ahead of Rory Laird on total points).

9. Laird is by far the most popular pick of the current top six in defence at 57.4 per cent ownership, with No.3 Tom Stewart (36.2 per cent) and No.5 Jake Lloyd (37.9 per cent) also in more than a third of teams. But there are some massive PODs at the top end of the backline rankings with Daniel Rich (No.4) in just 7.5 per cent of teams despite averaging 105.8 points a game and No.6 ranked defender Jack Crisp (av 101) in 4.4 per cent of teams. And uber POD Jordan Dawson is making a late charge to make it three Swans in the top six, ranking seventh among defenders for total points after a 141 at the weekend. He is in just 1.1 per cent of teams.

Jack Crisp is quietly putting together an outstanding season. Picture: Michael Klein

10. An underrated key to Collingwood’s improvement in recent weeks is the return of Taylor Adams. The tough midfielder has had his injury problems this year but since returning to the team in Round 15 he has put up KFC SuperCoach scores of 110, 112 and 140. He is one of the form midfielders of the competition, ranking third in the AFL in his position for contested possessions from Round 15-17, second for groundball gets, fifth for tackles, eighth for disposals and 12th for clearances. After dropping to just $464,900, his price has surged to $516,600 — still $72,200 cheaper than his Round 1 value, with a break even of 54 this week.

11. Rowan Marshall remains a very affordable option for players looking for a cheap forward (or ruckman) at $438,900 — rising just $1.7k after scoring 95 against Brisbane. He has a break even of 65 this week and will obliterate that if history is anything to go by. Marshall has played this week’s opponent Port Adelaide three times in his career, including twice in the past year, for scores of 132, 160 and 139. If you think that’s crazy, make sure Jack Macrae is in your captaincy plans — his past four scores against Gold Coast are 146, 169, 139 and 189.

Originally published as KFC SuperCoach Plus Article: 11 things you need to know for Round 18