KFC SuperCoach Plus: 11 things you need to know for Round 4 of the AFL season
What’s behind the KFC SuperCoach ruck crisis? Trade tips, a big captaincy warning, money makers and more – here are 11 nuggets of gold from SuperCoach Plus to help your team.
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From “set and forget” to problem child – the KFC SuperCoach ruck line is causing plenty of headaches in 2022.
What’s going on with our big-scoring big men?
Scroll down to dig into the stats behind the KFC SuperCoach scores plus 10 more nuggets from SuperCoach plus to help your team.
SuperCoach Plus is a treasure trove of stats and tools including Break Evens, score and price projections, a bye planner, the new Trade Assist button and lots more. And now SuperCoach Plus subscribers can see live KFC SuperCoach scores for every AFL game in the 2022 season.
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MONEY MAKERS
The first price changes are in for 2022 and mature-age Saints recruit Jack Hayes takes the crown for the biggest price rise in KFC SuperCoach. Hayes scored just 57 points against Richmond but added a whopping $85,200 to his price tag after posting 127 and 68 in the first two rounds. Reborn Giant Stephen Coniglio wasn’t far behind with a $77,200 price gain, just ahead of teammate Tom Green (+$72,400), Kangaroo Tristan Xerri (+$69,800), Patrick Cripps (+$64,000) and Demon Jake Bowey (+$62,700). Other players to jump by at least $50,000 include Will Brodie, Matt Rowell, Nick Daicos and Lachie Neale.
SNEAKY BARGAINS
KFC SuperCoach players are astute bargain hunters so many of the names above are in plenty of teams, with the exception of Green who has been starring for 6 per cent of sides, averaging 139 over the first three rounds. Other surprising names who jumped in value after their third game include Patrick Naish (+$50,600), Jack Ginnivan (+$47,900), Lloyd Meek (+$46,200), Darcy Fort (+$29,700), Nakia Cockatoo (+$23,900), Shannon Hurn (+$16,500), Joe Daniher (+$13,400), Levi Casboult (+$11,900) and Tim Taranto (+$2400).
DOWN, DOWN, PRICES ARE DOWN
Of course when some players rise in value, others are falling. Chad Wingard had the biggest price drop in KFC SuperCoach after round 3, losing $63,600 after averaging 51.3 in the opening three rounds. Dyson Heppell’s average has dropped from 99.4 in 2021 to 61.3 from rounds 1-3, resulting in a $60,700 price drop. Tom Mitchell (-$57,800), Dayne Zorko (-$47,000), Todd Goldstein (-$45,900), Jack Steele (-$38,800), Marcus Bontempelli (-$30,300), Jack Crisp (-$28,100), Lachie Whitfield (-$26,100) and Changkuoth Jiath (-$400) all lost money off their starting price.
VALUE WATCH
Break Evens continue to play a key role in planning trades, with several players on the bubble this week about to play their third game and rocket in price. Bomber Nic Martin is the clear standout with a BE of -124 – he is projected to gain over $90,000 next week if he scores well against Adelaide. Eagles Hugh Dixon (BE -42) and Brady Hough (-18) are also due to play their third game this weekend, along with Cat Sam De Koning (-15). Of the mid-pricers, Coniglio (BE -48) is set to make a lot more money and so is Bowey (-46), Xerri (-36) and Will Brodie (-23). Charlie Curnow started slowly with 36 points in round 1 but that score is about to drop out of his three-week price cycle. After posting 113 and 64 in the past two weeks his value jumped $35,700 and he is forecast to make even more than that week even with a projected score of 63 against Gold Coast.
FALLEN PREMIUMS ARE COMING
High Break Evens highlight players set to lose value, potentially making them players you want to trade out (if you have them in your team) or trade in (if you don’t). Bulldog Bailey Williams has the highest BE at 213. He was dropped last round after playing as the medical sub in round 2, resulting in a score of just 11 following a 24 in round 1. When he returns to the team he is set to lose more than $70,000 from his $419,400 price tag unless he can post a double ton. Luke Parker scored 167 in round 1 but just 73 and 76 in the next two weeks, resulting in a BE of 192 for round 4. Sean Darcy (BE 191), Patrick Dangerfield (177), Tom Mitchell (176), Rowan Marshall (175), Sam Walsh (163), Max Gawn (160) and Jack Steele (151) are others to watch as potential bargain buys in a few weeks’ time.
WHAT’S UP WITH KFC SUPERCOACH RUCKS
Is there a KFC SuperCoach ruck crisis? The top-priced big men haven’t reached the heights we expected so far in 2022 with Max Gawn hitting three figures for the first time in round 3. His average of 99 is a 22-point drop on his 2021 return. Brodie Grundy is down eight points per game, Nic Naitanui is down 24 points per game and Sean Darcy, who averaged 118 points last year, has played one game and scored 72 points. The breakneck speed games are being played early this season is making it harder for rucks – stoppages are at their lowest since 2008, with secondary stoppages also their lowest since Champion Data started in 1999 – and Gawn and Naitanui have also both seen big drops in their hitout-to-advantage rate. Gawn’s figure has dropped from 31.7 per cent last year to 24.6 per cent over the first three rounds – his lowest figure since 2013 – and Naitanui is tracking at 27 per cent, down from his career-high figure of 39.3 per cent in 2021, not helped by having much of his midfield decimated by Covid.
CLIFFHANGERS WINNERS AND LOSERS
Close finishes can see dramatic moves in KFC SuperCoach scores as we saw in two crazy games in round 3. The KFC SuperCoach scoring formula features a multiplier for actions when the game is on the line, and it can work in a positive and negative direction. Jordan Dawson earned 19 points for his effective kick and goal after the siren in the Showdown, while Josh Rachele lost 11 points for giving away a crucial 50m penalty. There were also some huge surges in the final quarter of Carlton’s nailbiting win against Hawthorn on Sunday, led James Sicily, who collected 66 points in that quarter on the back of eight effective disposals and four intercept possessions. Sam Walsh also scored 60 points from eight effective disposals and two clearances, while Patrick Cripps added 54 points from eight effective disposals and four tackles. George Hewett (48), Sam Docherty (40) and Tom Mitchell (37) also scored well in the last quarter, while Charlie Curnow, who was on fire early, failed to win a disposal in the term and scored zero points.
NICE TO HAVE YOU BACK, COGS
Stephen Coniglio is the second-most selected player in KFC SuperCoach (in 76.6 per cent of teams, behind only Nick Daicos at 82.3 per cent), so most players are enjoying one of the buys of the season. Coniglio averaged just 60 points in five matches in 2021 but he is a different player in 2022, with his 149 points against the Suns his biggest haul since Round 16, 2019. He’s winning plenty of the ball – averaging 25 disposals per game (up from 14.7 last year) – and has hit he target by foot 59 per cent of the time, a career-high kicking efficiency. His tackle numbers are also up to 4.7 (best since 2018) and his 1.7 score assists per game are a career-high.
TAGGERS ARE BACK
Beware the tag! If you captained any of Touk Miller, Andrew Brayshaw or Lachie Neale in round 3, you would’ve been left disappointed. Leon Cameron adopted a hard tag on Miller, with Lachie Ash keeping him to just 11 disposals and two marks in the 77 minutes they were matched up. Matt de Boer also spent some time on Miller to quell his influence. Brayshaw was followed closely by Connor West in the first half of the Derby and was held to 31 points to halftime. He saved himself with a strong second half, collecting a game-high 19 disposals and 66 points to salvage his score. Neale was tagged by Kayne Turner, who restricted him to just seven disposals in the 43 minutes they were matched up. Neale started with 46 points in the first quarter but then came off injured midway through the second term. He only scored 23 points in the second and third quarters, before finishing with a flurry in the final term – collecting 36 points from 10 effective disposals.
CAPTAINS CORNER
Picking a captain has been a tricky game in the opening three rounds, with taggers not making it any easier for us in round 3. But history can still be a great guide, so let’s take a look at who has a good record against their opponent this week. Port Adelaide and Melbourne open the round on Thursday night and the standout there is Christian Petracca, who scored a career-high 173 points against the Power in round 17 last year. Max Gawn has been targeted for physical treatment by Port in the past and averages just 92 in his past three while Clayton Oliver (98) isn’t a lot better. If you’re looking for a standout this round Patrick Dangerfield averages 137 in his past five against Brisbane and Brodie Grundy averages 115 in his past five against the Eagles – take out one stinker in 2020 and that jumps to 128 in the other four games, including 134 last year. Isaac Heeney could be an option against North Melbourne – he averages 108 in his past three against the Kangaroos – Andy Brayshaw scored 132 against the Giants last year and Jack Macrae is due for a big score against Richmond. In his past four games against the Tigers he has scored 163, 107, 162 and 107. Over to you, Jack.
CAPTAIN WARNING!
Lachie Neale had to deal with a tagger for part of last week’s game against North Melbourne and there is a big red warning sign on him when it comes to captaincy duties this week. When he faced Geelong last year he was blanketed by Mark O’Connor, who restricted him to just 16 touches and 75 KFC SuperCoach points, prompting Lions coach Chris Fagan to plead for fair treatment for his star onballer. Jack Steele has surprisingly never dominated against the Hawks – averaging 102 in his past three against them – but if you’re prepared to wait until the last game of the round Touk Miller loves playing the Blues. He only became a KFC SuperCoach premium last year but his great record against Carlton dates back to 2019, scoring at least 100 points in his five meetings since then at an average of 124.2.
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Originally published as KFC SuperCoach Plus: 11 things you need to know for Round 4 of the AFL season
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