KFC SuperCoach 2022: Round 6 trade guide and expert advice
With Tim English injured, more than 44,000 KFC SuperCoaches have a big dilemma to deal with on the eve of Round 6. Our experts debate both sides of the argument.
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Just when KFC SuperCoaches were getting set to launch into upgrade season early, the top-scoring ruck and forward Tim English does a hamstring at training.
After he was left out of the Bulldogs team sheet, the club confirmed on Friday the in-form big man will miss up to three matches.
“On Wednesday at training, Tim English had the onset of some hamstring tightness,” head of sports medicine Chris Bell told the Bulldogs’ website.
“MRI and clinical tests have confirmed that he has a low-grade hamstring injury.
“The club is working through his return to play plan but expect Tim to miss the next 2-3 games.”
So what should more than 44,000 KFC SuperCoaches do – trade or hold?
The Phantom and Dan Batten look at both sides of the argument.
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The case for trading
- Dan Batten
Have you ever heard of a two-week hamstring?
OK, besides Patrick Cripps’ one-week hamstring injury.
English has been an exceptional starting pick, and some (like myself) have only had him for the same duration as his injury timeline – 2-3 weeks.
But with 35 trades at our disposal, there is extra scope for us to move him on considering there are prime targets on offer in Braydon Preuss and Sam Hayes at discount price tags.
English to Preuss will net you a war chest of $370k, which can turn a rookie into an uber-premium.
I am looking at pulling the trigger on my second boost, which will allow me to trade English to Preuss, and a mega-upgrade of Mitch Hinge to Clayton Oliver.
Plus, what happens if Stefan Martin has a strong run of form in the seniors?
It could lead to a nightmare scenario where English reverts to the same scoring as last year – never trust Bevo.
The case for holding
- The Phantom
I’ll give you a 121.6 reasons. That is English’s average this season, making him not only the No. 1 ranked forward and ruckman in KFC SuperCoach, but the seventh-best scorer in the entire competition.
Sure, more trades this season make it easier to mount the case for replacing a premium scorer with another premium scorer even for just two weeks.
But ask yourself this, is your replacement guaranteed to score more than a potential bench cover option in Jack Hayes, Nic Martin, Tristan Xerri, Braydon Preuss or even Sam Hayes, who will Port’s only ruckman for the short-term?
It’s hard to be sure.
You can be sure it won’t be Hugh Dixon, who will also miss up two weeks with a calf issue.
At least, if you’re line-up allows it, put the E on Saint Hayes on Friday night – if he scores 75+, be more than happy with that as your English replacement.
If you’re already stretched on field, however, and cover is an issue, then maybe consider moving English on. But, unless coach Luke Beveridge does revert back to old ways and keeps Stefan Martin in the side, be prepared to use another trade to get him back in.
For what it’s worth, I don’t own English but, if you have no cover, and don’t have Preuss, then that’s the trade I’d consider.
Trade guide: 6 ways to get SuperCoach buy of the week
- Al Paton
After a week to assess our options and deal with other problems, GWS big man Braydon Preuss is firmly back on the KFC SuperCoach radar.
His season hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing – round 1: suspended, round 2: VFL, round 3: 109 points, round 4: 102 points, round 5: suspended - but those two big scores mean he could be the cash cow of the season.
Priced at $204,700, he has a Break Even of -91 and will gain more than $75,000 in value if he can score 80 points in his next match. Based on SuperCoach Plus projections he’ll be worth more than $400,000 by round 11, and that’s based on an average around 80 points per game - conservative based on his first two outings.
In any normal year any player who can make $200,000 in profit is a no-brainer selection, but this season has thrown up more than its fair share of quirks and complications, especially in the ruck. And that’s not to mention Preuss’s injury history (he has played 20 games in four and a bit seasons), his troubled relationship with the match review officer and the fact he plays for GWS. Preuss’s replacement Matt Flynn was serviceable against Melbourne and could hold his spot, although that might not be a huge concern – Preuss scored over 100 playing with Flynn in the pre-season.
So what should we do this week?
SEVEN WAYS TO GET PREUSS
1. Trade a non-playing bench ruckman to Preuss
This is the easiest choice of the week. If you picked a cheap player who isn’t getting a game on your ruck bench like Charlie Comben or Domanic Akuei, turn them into Preuss ASAP. You’ll lose a dual-position swing but gain back-up if one of your starting rucks misses a game and an instant cash injection.
The only issue here is you’ll need to find some cash to make the move – $102k in the case of Akuei. That might necessitate a second trade such as cashing in a rookie such as Josh Rachele who has appreciated in value to a bubble boy like Gold Coast’s Malcolm Rosas ($130,600 FWD).
2. Trade Jack Hayes or Hugh Dixon to Preuss
The most popular ruck strategy this season was to pick one or both of these rookie rucks, who both started at the bargain basement price of $102,400, at R3.
Both have since rocketed in price, enough to enable a straight swap to Preuss. Easy. Except ... which one makes way?
Ideally you would wait a few more weeks before moving on either cash cow – both still have negative Break Evens and lots more money to make.
Hayes has the higher scoring ceiling of the pair, evidenced by his second ton in four games against Gold Coast on Saturday. But his place in the Saints’ best 22 seems contingent on Paddy Ryder’s availability (he’s suspended for one more match).
Dixon’s scoring is more modest but a 63 average is nothing to sneeze at and the fact he put out a 54 in a huge loss is actually a pretty good sign, especially with Nic Naitanui out with a long-term injury.
If it helps split them, the Saints face GWS – and Preuss – next round, while the Eagles come up against a Scott Lycett-less Port Adelaide.
3. Trade a starting mid-price ruckman to Preuss
If you went cheap in the rucks to start the year, this could be a good time to cash in your winnings and jump on the next money train.
Jarrod Witts is in 19 per cent of teams and has been a fantastic buy, starting the year at $380k and averaging 108.6.
Rowan Marshall hasn’t worked out so well for his 8000 owners, averaging 94 and dropping $70,000 in value. His 125 against the Suns was a season-high but that was rucking without Ryder.
Trading either to Preuss would generate a $300k profit – enough to turn a rookie like Josh Ward into a premium midfielder – and allow you to keep Hayes and Dixon on the bench.
If you picked Tim English at R2 – well played! You would not entertain trading out the top-scoring ruckman in KFC SuperCoach but you could trade out a forward, swing English to the forward line and bring Preuss into your rucks. If that means keeping Hayes/Dixon at R3, you’ll have English on call if Preuss misses a game – the perfect scenario.
4. Trade Matt Rowell to Preuss
Using some dual-position magic you could swap an underperforming midfielder for a ruckman.
Rowell could be the one to go after his second score in the 60s in as many weeks. That 157 in round 1 feels like a long time ago and his cash generation has stalled at around $400k - next week he could even lose money with a likely Break Even over 100.
Trading Rowell out would create a vacancy in the midfield that could be filled by moving any one of our long list of MID/FWD players up from the forward line. That opens up a spot in the forwards – fill that with Hayes/Dixon/English and you have a ruck vacancy for Preuss.
The downside is that for teams who will be playing Preuss at R3 it effectively means swapping out Rowell for a forward bench rookie in terms of weekly scores, but Hayes or Dixon aren’t scoring much worse than Rowell has been lately. You just might be creating a weekly headache of deciding who to play on field out of a crew of productive forward cheapies like those two, Josh Rachele and Nick Martin.
The Phantom will have more on the Matt Rowell situation in his weekly burning questions column over the next few days.
5. Trade a starting top-end ruckman to Preuss
Two weeks ago, trading out Max Gawn was all the rage. Since then, he has scored 160 and 130 (although if you got English in the deal you wouldn’t be complaining). So traders beware.
Now Brodie Grundy is the rage trade of the week after scoring just 53 – his worst score in almost eight years – against Brisbane.
His lowest score before that this year was 96, but, based on KFC SuperCoach price guru Brice Mitchell’s predictions, his price after lockout will be down $75,000 from his starting price and he will enter round 6 with a Break Even of 154. Even if he averages around 100 from here, he’ll be close to $500k in a few weeks.
Based on current averages a switch to Preuss wouldn’t cost you any points on field, you could bank $350k and jump back to Grundy when his price bottoms out or around the Giants’ round 12 bye. And you could keep Hayes/Dixon as cover.
But trading a proven durable top-scoring ruckman is a huge risk – see Gawn’s numbers above – especially to an unreliable player like Preuss.
Grundy’s next three games are against Essendon (av 129 in his past three), Gold Coast (123) and Richmond, a team he has scored eight consecutive tons against including a 140 (last year), 157, 137 and 135.
6. Pass on Preuss
If you don’t love any of the options above, buying Preuss isn’t compulsory.
His likely price gain of $200k can be compared to a baseline of zero if he’s replacing Domanic Akeui, but not if he’s replacing a player who will also be making cash in the time you would have Preuss in your team.
Brice predicts Dixon will make another $103k in his next four games based on a 63 average, and Hayes could make even more if he can stay in the St Kilda team.
So a Dixon to Preuss trade will actually be worth just under $100k in projected price gain ($200k v $103k), and will cost you a RUC/FWD link and a player who hasn’t had a succession of bizarre injuries (Preuss tore his pectoral muscle in the gym last year) and, as far as we know, gets on fine with Michael Christian.
He also isn’t coached by Leon Cameron.
Is that worth losing a precious trade? It’s a question worth asking, especially when another fantastic ruck rookie has just emerged...
7. Get Sam Hayes instead
News late last week that Scott Lycett will have shoulder surgery and miss three months has opened the door for long-time understudy Sam Hayes ($123,900 RUC) to get an extended run in the No.1 ruck role at Port Adelaide.
Hayes is $80k cheaper than Preuss and has much safer job security – Port doesn’t have another ruckman on its list.
On debut against the Blues on Sun, the 22-year-old had just five disposals, but an impressive 11 hitouts-to-advantage saw him finish with 75 KFC SuperCoach points.
Hayes finished the SANFL season strongly last year, recording eight scores of 99 or more in his last 11 matches, including four 120-plus totals.
The other bonus of picking Hayes is it gives you another week to get a big price jump from Dixon or Jack Hayes before cashing them in.
Scott Lycett's long-term injury changes everything in fantasy. Sam Hayes is every chance to lead the ruck division. #SuperCoach#AFLFantasy
— Fantasy Freako (@FantasyFreako) April 15, 2022
WHAT TO DO WITH HALL
Aaron Hall was on his way to another big score when his hamstring pinged against the Bulldogs on Good Friday.
After entering the game with a Break Even of 154, his score of 71 will result in a price drop of about $37,000 – terrible luck for his 13,000 owners, who will now have to trade him out.
For everyone else (and his current owners if they can stomach it), he’ll be a bargain pick-up a few weeks after returning from the injury, when he is likely to drop under $500,000. Although it’s worth keeping in mind this is his second hamstring problem already this season.
For Hall owners looking for a replacement, Sam Docherty is at the top of the tree for KFC SuperCoach defenders – and has a price tag to match. Despite failing to reach three figures for the first time this year, Docherty has still scored 22 more points than the second-ranked George Hewett.
If you want value, Jake Lloyd reminded us of his KFC SuperCoach powers with 148 points against the Eagles. After a slow start to the year, he has dropped almost $50,000 in price but won’t get a lot cheaper.
Jack Sinclair is another great option after his fifth 100-plus score in as many games. A switch to the midfield is set to deliver dual-position MID/DEF status and he is a great POD – he was in just 2 per cent of teams entering round 5.
If you don’t have any cash in the bank, Alex Witherden could be a sneaky Hall replacement. He missed Round 1 through suspension but since returning to the Eagles line-up has scored 63, 106, 127, 134, and there is plenty of footy in the West Coast backline right now.
He would certainly set you apart – entering round 5 he was in just over 200 teams.
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Originally published as KFC SuperCoach 2022: Round 6 trade guide and expert advice
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