KFC SuperCoach 2022: How SuperCoach Investor uses stockmarket principles to pick a winning team
Stock market guru Daniel Begala uses the rules of the market to dominate in KFC SuperCoach. He explains how he builds a killer fantasy footy portfolio.
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The dust has barely settled on the 2022 AAMI Community Series, but it’s now time for KFC SuperCoach players to turn their attention to the most important week of their season.
Get those spreadsheets fired up, KAYO subscriptions purring and make sure you’re well poised to explode out of the blocks in Round 1 with a score that entrenches you safely in the rankings peloton.
The KFC SuperCoach Investor, Daniel Begala, is back for a new season and keen to share his tried-and-tested methods for building a well-rounded portfolio that will enable you to thrive in season 2022.
BUILDING BLOCKS
The foundations of any successful KFC SuperCoach portfolio are your rookies.
They are the bargain-basement penny stocks that appreciate handsomely and enable you to supercharge your team towards a well-oiled portfolio of premium stars.
The KFC SuperCoach Investor will always start the composition of his investment portfolio with the highest quality rookies prior to making any decisions on the established stars of our game.
Yes, that’s right – no thought is given to the likes of Macrae, Steele or Gawn (for now).
This usually means picking the cream of the $117k or $123k crop, but this year looks to be a season when investors will have to come to terms with allocating a grander portion of their salary cap (“capital”) to ensure they have stocks such as Jason Horne-Francis ($207,300 MID), Nick Daicos ($193,800 MID) and Josh Ward ($180,300 MID).
Don’t be dismayed, however, as there are plenty of rolled-gold premiums that have been substantially discounted (hello, Lachie Neale) who will enable the astute investor to offset the elevated cost of their initial suite of rookies.
This year, too, investors will acknowledge that the midfield boasts the broadest array of rookie options, and this will be a major factor in where you reinforce and assign your premiums within your portfolio.
With Horne-Francis, Daicos, Ward and third-year Swan Dylan Stephens ($1687,800 MID) likely to be among the best-scoring rookies, capital (for premiums) can be reassigned to defence, rucks or forwards.
CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Time in the market.
It’s what KFC SuperCoach and investing is all about.
The KFC SuperCoach Investor is an advocate for deploying all of your capital, $10 million, into the market from the get-go.
Capital that you hold in the kitty – much like cash, nowadays – won’t earn any return, unless it’s deployed into appreciating KFC SuperCoach assets that rise in value each week after they have reached the three-game threshold.
With most of your salary cap deployed into the market, you will position yourself to benefit from improved upside in your team value in Round 3 (and beyond).
Team value is pivotal for creating trade liquidity and the cash required to upgrade your side towards a fully-fledged premium outfit by season’s end.
THE BIG SHORT
It was a great movie, but it’s an even better strategy in KFC SuperCoach.
The “Big Short” at The Begala Brigade is a concept I’ve been using – successfully – over the past few seasons to jettison the underperforming assets from my side prior to any impact on capital valuations (in Round 3).
Last year, for example, I overcapitalised my portfolio with Lachie Neale (~$700K plus) and Patrick Cripps, who both battled injuries and produced two underwhelming scores in the opening two rounds.
Staring down the barrel of substantial price depreciation and poorly allocated use of my salary cap, I have taken an aggressive position and always sought to “short” (sell) established premiums in favour of rookies and discounted premiums I may have overlooked in my starting squad.
We’re not perfect, so you’re not going to get every decision right in your portfolio.
The stalwarts of our great game will always live by the mantra “never trade your premiums”, however this has been a season-defining move that has recalibrated my side and allowed The Begala Brigade to finish in the top 500 in each of the Covid-19 impacted seasons.
It enables investors to promptly address any glaring mistakes that, if not addressed early, could hamstring your rankings pursuit within the first month of the season.
This strategy also enables you to promptly acquire any speculative stocks that explode from the blocks at IPO (Round 1) and look destined to become top 6-8 investments within their respective line, as Jarman Impey (FWD) and Sam Walsh (MID) did during FY21.
With the additional trade boosts this season, The Begala Brigade will be attacking Round 3 with a growing likelihood of deploying three trades to supercharge, or, reallocate, his portfolio of KFC SuperCoach assets. \
ALPHA
This is a concept that will be familiar to most investors, but “alpha”, is becoming increasingly important in the pursuit of KFC SuperCoach excellence.
“Alpha” is a measure used at The Begala Brigade as a means to beat the market and deliver scores in excess of the benchmark where most coaches have allocated their capital.
Each year I will review the percentage of ownership of key KFC SuperCoach assets to assist with making line-ball decisions within my portfolio.
Using discounted KFC SuperCoach star, Lachie Neale ($543,200 MID), as an example I will opt to mimic the grand majority (49 per cent ownership) and take a long position (buy) on Neale.
In doing so, I am conforming to the benchmark and happy to include Neale in my portfolio with no apparent “alpha” (point-of-difference) worth considering in this midfield position, as I doubt any asset can outperform Neale at this price point.
A reverse example – where “alpha” is apparent – would in the case of Max Gawn ($657,400 RUC) who is owned by 44 per cent of KFC SuperCoaches.
If my view is Sean Darcy ($642,600 RUC) is likely to outperform Gawn in Season 2022, so I could instead select Darcy as my “alpha” and try to beat the market and benchmark of coaches in this position, R1.
It’s a strategy that can be hugely rewarding if you win the “coin toss”, but one that can quickly become very isolating if you’re on the other side of the ledger and Gawn – along with the majority of owners – emphatically trumps Darcy.
LEAGUE V RANKINGS
A key decision coaches need to make from the outset is whether they’re chasing league success, overall rankings, or a combination of both.
With added trades (+5) in FY22, The KFC SuperCoach Investor’s initial view is to aggressively deploy these and hopefully fast-track my portfolio to full premium one or two weeks earlier than historically achieved with 30 trades.
This will position my portfolio well to benefit from the “tailwind” of premium assets for an additional 1-2 weeks and lead to record scores for coaches at the pointy end of proceedings.
I do acknowledge that health-and-safely protocols will likely impact matches in season 2022, but if your desire is to be ranked among the top tier of coaches, it’s integral that you aggressively tailor your trading decisions.
However, if your priority is league success the alternative approach is to withhold trades, sneak into the top eight and wreak havoc on your trade-stricken opposition at the business end of proceedings during the KFC SuperCoach Finals.
There are many ways to skin the (Geelong) Cats, but for The Begala Brigade, it’s rankings, or, bust!
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Originally published as KFC SuperCoach 2022: How SuperCoach Investor uses stockmarket principles to pick a winning team
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