Expert trade grades Round 5: What to do with Sam Davidson, Jack Henderson and more
Upgrade season has officially arrived, and with it plenty of questions of which rookies to cull and which to keep – and which premiums to target. Our experts run the ruler over the options.
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Upgrade season has officially arrived, and with it plenty of questions of which rookies to cull and which to keep – and which premiums to target. Our experts run the ruler over the options.
MOST TRADED OUT
Sam Davidson $293,200 MID/FWD
Al Paton: HOLD – If he can get you to an ultra premo like Nick Daicos I’ll give it a pass but he only needs one good score to reset his Break Even. Cash generation is so valuable and you could be passing on another $100k.
Tim Michell: TRADE – But only if it’s to get a top dog who has bottomed out like Nick Daicos.
Patch: CONSIDER – I’d prefer to hold for a bit longer to squeeze every juice out of the lemon but if you don’t have other options he’s probably one you can cull.
Matt Forrest: HOLD – Put up his top score in his only game at Marvel so far, and he’s back there this week. High breakeven but has shown he can hit it. Last week in teams unless he puts up another big score.
Chloe Williams: HOLD - Unless he’s your only way to one of the many underpriced premo upgrades.
Tarquin Oakley: CONSIDER – He’s done his job making $180k if you move him on. But I’m hoping there’s another spike game in Davidson like his 129 against the Blues to squeeze some more cash out of the Bulldog.
Dan Batten: HOLD – It’s hard to get the footy on the wing at a ground where there aren’t any. Give him another chance back at Marvel, where he scored 129 in his last start.
Jack Henderson $166,900 MID/FWD
AP: TRADE – Going backwards in value and probably out of the Demons’ side.
TM: TRADE – Break even has ballooned to 55 which he hasn’t managed in the last three rounds.
Patch: TRADE – I don’t hate holding him if he’s named for the Dees on the weekend but is a long way off making cash even if he gets a spike score.
MF: TRADE – Wowee what a disappointing return from Henderson. Too many moneymakers floating around not to shift him and restart cash generation.
CW: TRADE - The cash gen isn’t what was expected, but cut your losses and move him to a more promising bubble boy.
TO: TRADE – Felt like a must-have at $99k with break even of -71. Only made $67k and now it’s time to go.
DB: TRADE – I was big on Henderson after some impressive state league numbers, but he hasn’t been able to get into it as a full-time forward.
Matt Roberts $470,200 DEF
AP: HOLD – Role is a worry but deal with your rookies first. Might lose $10k this week but should hover around this price.
TM: HOLD – Riley Bice has had a huge impact on him but surely you’ve got bigger issues? I’d only trade if it got me to the seemingly unstoppable Jack Sinclair.
Patch: CONSIDER – Riley Bice is cutting his lunch and his price is about to dip – plus, we want to have Zach Reid, Luke Trainor and the Bice man on-field, you may need to restructure. I’m moving him on this week but holding isn’t a bad outcome pending other spotfires.
CW: HOLD - The role is still there, hopefully his scoring picks back up. On the watch list, but not at the top.
MF: HOLD – Surely you’ve got bigger problems than this? Poor score but he had 7 turnovers, reckon he can clean that up and get back to his 90-105 pretty easily
TO: HOLD – His numbers were still good against Collingwood despite the lacklustre score. Back at the SCG this week where he has been at his best. Happy to hold.
DB: HOLD – How many players have we seen bounce back after poor starts this season? Definitely on notice, but Roberts scored close to 60 points in the second half against the Pies.
Nathan O’Driscoll $309,800 MID
AP: TRADE – Has more money to make but it won’t be for a month.
TM: TRADE – Still going to miss at least a month. Cash in now and start your upgrade season early.
Patch: TRADE – Won’t be back for ages.
MF: TRADE – He’s still missing games, cash in on him and kickstart upgrade season.
CW: TRADE - Perfect stepping stone to get to a promo, or free up cash through a downgrade.
TO: TRADE – Did his job. Out for too long to keep him.
DB: TRADE – Another 3-5 weeks is a long time to wait for NOD to return.
Sam De Koning $358,400 DEF/RUC
AP: TRADE – Now has DPP but he isn’t playing in the ruck any more.
TM: TRADE – Not going to score 90 each week playing deep in defence and has dipped below his starting price. Get off before he loses even more value.
Patch: TRADE – Would be trading him ahead of Roberts. He’ll still have spike scores but looks like a better footballer down back, and Geelong look like a better team with him down there.
MF: TRADE – He’s ruck eligible now but he’s not scoring well – mid-priced bust No.1.
CW: TRADE - Outscored by all of the main def rookies - not viable anymore, even with RUC status.
TO: TRADE – Playing in defence and isn’t a reliable option.
DB: TRADE – Locked down Riley Thilthorpe and did not attend one centre bounce. Might be back in the ruck at some stage, but it’s not worth waiting.
Finn Callaghan $416,400 MID
AP: HOLD – Kick in the guts to lose money from his starting price after scoring 144 and 104 in the first two rounds, but I still think he’s an elite talent.
TM: TRADE – Moving Callaghan on for a loss will sting but he’s seriously hit a wall in the last month. There’s a chance James Jordon chaperones him to the derby dance in a few weeks too.
Patch: CONSIDER – This one hurts if you brought him in, but Tom Green is cutting him out of the midfield minutes which saw his early spike. Trade him for a top dog like a Daicos or Merrett if you can, but I’d be trying to get rookies off-field first.
MF: TRADE – Sucked a whole lot of us in, hey? Tom Green’s return is hampering his scoring, trade while he’s still got some value. Mid-priced bust No.2.
CW: TRADE - The same as SDK - cut your losses.
TO: CONSIDER – Ghee it would be a frustrating own after his brilliant first two weeks. Should escape a tag for a couple of games now. Is one more week too much to ask? It might be.
DB: TRADE. Probably have to cut your losses now.
Clayton Oliver $469,00 MID
AP: HOLD – Not the Clarry of old, sadly, but safe for 90+ points most weeks. Upgrade him over the byes.
TM: HOLD – The Dees can’t be this bad all season can they? He’s averaging 29 touches and ranks elite for effective disposals.
Patch: HOLD – I’m no longer convinced he’ll be a keeper but if he can stay between $450-500k and average nearly 100 until the byes I’ll be pretty happy to have him sitting there.
MF: HOLD – He’s not scoring outstanding but he’s collecting plenty of the ball and tackling well, hopefully he can be a bit more damaging and bump those scores up.
CW: HOLD - He’ll be back …
TO: HOLD – Not scoring massively, but also is yet to go under 80 this year. Tigers and Eagles to come in the next three weeks so a definite hold.
DB: HOLD. Has Richmond and West Coast to come in his next three and still managed to score 86 with a heavy tag.
Joel Freijah $358,600 DEF/MID
AP: TRADE – Like him as a player but he’s losing cash – one I would be happy to use for an early upgrade.
TM: TRADE – The smart ones (I am ranked 50k so not me) traded him last week. The bubble has well and truly burst on another mid-price bust. Although saying that I’m confident he’ll be better when Bont returns.
Patch: TRADE – Has been Bevo’d, and that won’t improve when Bont returns.
CW: TRADE - Bevo alert!
MF: TRADE – Freijah officially got Bevo’d. I couldn’t tell you what his position is. Mid-priced bust No.3.
TO: TRADE – Just a yuck three weeks from Freijah. Had a couple of chances to kick a big goal in a close game against Brisbane to boost his score and botched them. Playing a high-half forward role that is not working for SuperCoach.
Isaac Kako $191,700 FWD/MID
AP: HOLD – He has the Eagles this week and I’d be a chance to snag a few against them at the moment.
TM: HOLD – Slow burn but has DPP. He’ll kick 3 or 4 one day, score 70+ and get to $250k. Cash in then.
Patch: HOLD – They have the Eagles this week and he could kick six. Only needs one spike score.
CW: HOLD - I considered selling, but at least he’s generating cash … and playing West Coast. Wait a while more.
MF: HOLD – Talk about a slow burn. He’ll just keep churning along, every now and then he’ll boot three goals and make a bit more cash.
TO: HOLD – Break even is still only 15 so no harm at all in keeping Kako. Goalless for a couple of weeks now so he is due.
Conor Stone $172,600 DEF/FWD
AP: AP: HOLD. The slowest of slow burns keeps holding his spot and hitting his BE (just). Not an urgent sell but if you want to, that’s fine.
TM: HOLD – Speaking of slow burns … Stone has made $55k in five weeks and hasn’t score higher than 46 in a month. But that DEF-FWD status is so handy for trade flexibility.
Patch: CONSIDER – If you need him to go then he can go, but I like the DPP with (hopefully) Nic Martin coming in at some point. I’m holding but yeet if you need to.
CW: HOLD - Unless you have no other issues and can turn him into Cleary easily
MF: HOLD – One day he’ll hit $200k, but while he’s in the Giants’ best 22 surely he’s at the back of the list of problems.
TO: HOLD – A handy DPP swing but that is all Stone is.
DB: TRADE - Not a must-sell, but is going nowhere slowly.
MOST TRADED IN
Caiden Cleary $124,100 FWD
AP: BUY – Get him in.
Tim Michell: BUY – I reckon he would have been in Sydney’s round 1 (or zero) team if he hadn’t been suspended for an off-field misdemeanour. Looks a monty to make $100k+.
Patch: BUY – Rookie of the round for me.
MF: BUY – A great cheapie, has put up good scores for the Swans and I think he’s a great option to avoid the vest.
CW: BUY - Strong tackle numbers mean his floor should be high and is an easy trade from some of the underperforming forward rookies.
TO: BUY – 13 tackles in two games is a great sign. An 81 in his system for a couple of weeks equals cash money.
DB: BUY – Strong tackle numbers mean his floor should be high and is an easy trade from some of the underperforming forward rookies.
Tom Gross $113,500 MID
AP: BUY – I’ll have him, too. Hopefully he’ll be ripe to trade out at $250k in a few weeks
TM: BUY – West Coast is very bad but this draft slider looks to be very good. He’s had 35 disposals (22 effective) and seven clearances in two games. Did somebody say double downgrade?
Patch: BUY – I think he’s behind Cleary for me and I don’t think he’s a must-have the way Bice was, but if you’re double downgrading (or boosting) this week I think he’s the one to bring in behind Cleary … although I’m starting to get concerned by how many Eagles are on my bench.
MF: BUY – No.1 downgrade target this week for mine. Does a lot of things well and he’s putting up good numbers.
CW: BUY - Slid down draft boards last year through little fault of his own, and now SuperCoaches can reap the rewards.
TO: BUY – Attended 20 centre bounces against the Blues. Rookie gold.
DB: BUY – Slid down draft boards last year through little fault of his own, and now SuperCoaches can reap the rewards.
Nick Daicos $584,800 MID
AP: BUY – Sure, if you can afford it. He’s good! I won’t be pulling my team apart to get him, though.
TM: BUY – If he hasn’t bottomed out yet he’s very close. He made a mockery of the James Jordon tag and although he’s projected to lose another $7k, that’s nothing really. Start your upgrade season in the finest style.
Patch: BUY – If you can get there, do it. He’s good, he’s as cheap as he’ll be in some time.
MF: CONSIDER: He’s shown he can beat the tag, but has a tough matchup against a relatively restrictive Brisbane side and probably goes head to head with Josh Dunkley at the contest this week. High breakeven means he could stay around the same price.
CW: BUY - Fought through the tag in impressive fashion. The big-game player has Lions, Dons and Cats in his next three and SuperCoaches should be buying him ASAP.
TO: BUY – Enjoys the Brisbane match-up. And adores Anzac Day. No real obvious taggers to face in the next two months either. Tick. Tick. Tick.
DB: BUY – Fought through the tag in impressive fashion. The big-game player has Lions, Dons and Cats in his next three and SuperCoaches should be buying him ASAP.
Saad El-Hawli $119,900 DEF/MID
AP: WAIT – I’m happy to pay $30k more next week and save a boost.
TM: CONSIDER – Might be sub for the third game in a row. Make sure you have a back-up plan if that eventuates on Friday night. If he really blitzes the Eagles I’d be prepared to pat $160k-170k next week.
Patch: PASS – Not for me until I see him in a full game. He got a decent run after Bryan’s awful injury on Saturday but I think Brad Scott will keep him in the vest.
MF: CONSIDER – I hate how he’s been the sub both games. If he’s not the sub this week then you can buy him, but I don’t know what Brad Scott’s plans are. One to watch.
CW: BUY - BUY. Gives the Bombers too much offensively for him to be sub again, surely? Bit of risk but the upside is definitely there – especially against the Eagles.
TO: PASS – Too close to the edge of that Essendon side for mine after being sub twice in a row.
DB: BUY – Gives the Bombers too much offensively for him to be sub again, surely? Bit of risk but the upside is definitely there – especially against the Eagles.
Max Holmes $542,400 DEF/MID
AP: PASS – Very good player but Tom Stewart should be back this week. Will be available around this price again.
TM: BUY – Of all Geelong’s shrewd draft moves, not enough is made of the swap with Richmond which ultimately netted Holmes. He’s an absolute jet and with Patrick Dangerfield playing forward this is Holmes and Bailey Smith’s team. Centre bounces and kick-ins – piggery of the highest order. Tag is a worry but his second half opposed to Marcus Windhager was huge
Patch: BUY - My biggest issue last year was paying top dollar and not value, and Max Holmes is value. If you’re looking for a backline upgrade I’d be looking here instead of at Sinclair or Whitfield.
CW: WAIT - Has gone 120-plus in every game he hasn’t been tagged, but surely Finn Maginness is a chance to go to him this week. With a 100 BE, you can afford to give him another week.
MF: CONSIDER – Has proven he can’t beat a tag, but when he cops no attention he goes off. Hawthorn’s midfield is pretty restrictive without a run-with role, so might be a good one to not buy this week.
TO: CONSIDER – In the three games he hasn’t been tagged Holmes has scored 125, 127 and 147. But could Finn Maginness have a role this week?
DB: CONSIDER – Has gone 120-plus in every game he hasn’t been tagged, but surely Finn Maginness is a chance to go to him this week. With a 100 BE, you can afford to give him another week.
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera $567,500 DEF
AP. BUY – The premo breakout is on.
TM: BUY – But be aware he’s not going to kick three goals every week. St Kilda and Fremantle have the best of the mid-year byes and unless teams start tagging him, 100 seems to be his ceiling. He’s going to get seriously paid next year whether he’s a Saint or not.
Patch: CONSIDER – I think you’ve missed the boat on getting proper value and would probably rather Holmes, but I also own him and want to keep him as a POD so maybe don’t listen to me on this one.
MF: BUY – No.1 distributor off half back for a side that propels it well in a counterattacking style of football. A red-hot chance to be No.1 defender this year.
CW: BUY - The Giants tagged Jack Sinclair over NWM and he kicked three. Looks a very safe bet – he doesn’t need 30 to ton up.
TO: BUY – Oozes confidence and his teammates love to give him the ball. Just lacks the DPP swing Holmes and Sinclair have.
DB: BUY – The Giants tagged Jack Sinclair over NWM and he kicked three. Looks a very safe bet – he doesn’t need 30 to ton up.
Connor Rozee $498,700 MID
AP: BUY – Honestly, I didn’t know what to do with this guy in the pre-season and ended up passing, and I’m not sure what to do now. If the half-back move is a full-time thing, we probably need to get on.
TM: BUY – I have made some horror moves this year but even I felt bad for more than 5000 coaches who traded Rozee before he turned into the second coming of Dan Houston (but maybe better). Crazy to think he’s under $500k and although he’ll get attention even if he’s playing at halfback, this role change might be Ken Hinkley’s greatest gift to Josh Carr and SuperCoaches.
Patch: BUY – Well, well, well, a week after being on the list of trade outs he comes crawling back as a trade-in.
MF: BUY – A couple of down weeks prompted the move to half back where he made a mockery of the Hawks. Could he stay there and be a chance for DPP in six weeks’ time?
CW: WAIT - Does James Jordon go to Rozee or Zak Butters? Think that and uncertainty over the role long-term is enough to wait.
TO: BUY – Grabbing the Power skipper for under $500k would be very tempting with that new role off half back. James Jordon looms but could go to Butters in the middle.
DB: WAIT: Does James Jordon go to Rozee or Zak Butters? Think that and uncertainty over the role long-term is enough to wait.
Andrew Brayshaw $624,000 MID
AP: PASS – Easy for me to say after starting him but you can get a gun mid like Daicos or Rozee for less money.
TM: BUY – You’re paying close to top dollar now. Better off hoping a team actually gives him some respect and stops clamping Caleb Serong and goes to Brayshaw. Well done if you started or got on before he reached $600k.
Patch: PASS – I don’t think he’s a bad option, I just think if last season taught me anything it’s that we should be value hunting wherever possible. Andy is good but he’s absolutely not value – try and grab someone at the bottom of their price point.
MF: CONSIDER - Too expensive for mine, sit back and hope he gets a tag one of these weeks and watch a bit of a price plummet before jumping on.
CW: BUY - With Caleb Serong getting the attention, Brayshaw has been free to do as he pleases. Only concern is the price-tag.
TO: PASS – His huge score against the Tigers is gone and now he is very expensive. Brayshaw is a jet, but there is better value.
DB: BUY – With Caleb Serong getting the attention, Brayshaw has been free to do as he pleases. Only concern is the price-tag.
Lachie Ash $512,200 DEF
AP: BUY – Has teased in the past but the Giants’ game style is based on Ash and Whitfield having a ton of the ball.
TM: CONSIDER – I don’t like admitting it, but Ash is the exception to the rule with this year’s mid-pricers. He started at $456k, hasn’t scored less than 80 and has three scores of 122 or better in five rounds. Hard to think he won’t sustain it but who knows?
Patch: CONSIDER – He’s good, he’s value, he’s stepped into a breach somewhere at the Giants and is making hay while the sun shines, but will that sun keep shining? I honestly couldn’t tell you, but if I wrote a list of top six forwards from here until the season’s end he’s not on it and that probably leans me towards avoid.
MF: PASS – He’s been uber consistent to start the season but I’m mindful of No.2 distributors on teams, and Whitfield is the clear No.1 at the Giants. A few more dominant weeks and I might change my mind.
CW: BUY - Will he be a top six? Maybe not, but he looks like he can definitely give a 105-average a nudge and is finally fulfilling his potential.
TO: BUY – Whitfield is getting lots of attention but Ash is absolutely flying under the radar.
DB: BUY – Will he be a top six? Maybe not, but he looks like he can definitely give a 105-average a nudge and is finally fulfilling his potential.
Ned Long $289,699 MID
AP: PASS – Can’t trust Fly.
TM: PASS – You won’t often find me admitting I feel for Phantom but this should have been one of his greatest rookie shouts. Instead, Craig McRae made him sub when he was on the bubble and he’s and made $90k in the blink of an eye. They’re calling him Nick Daicos’ bodyguard and although there’s a bit of Kevin Costner about what he’d do for Nick I’m not sure paying $290k for Long is a smart move.
Patch: AVOID – Agree with what Tim’s said – I had him locked in but pivoted after he was sub and can’t trust that he won’t end up in the vest again. Not what you want from a guy at nearly $300k – he won’t make enough to make the risk worth the reward.
CW: BUY - Certainly not a must but he won’t be the sub anymore - and if he isn’t the sub, he’ll have a prime role.
MF: PASS – Officially too expensive for cash generation purposes, especially with his history as the sub, but I would think the vest is well behind him now.
DB: BUY. Certainly not a must but he won’t be the sub anymore – and if he isn’t the sub, he’ll have a prime role.
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