Doctor SuperCoach analyses KFC SuperCoach’s best 18 rounds and how to prepare for 30 games in 22 days

The AFL fixture cram has arrived and 20 games in 33 days will have significant consequences for KFC SuperCoach. The expert team at Doctor SuperCoach analyse the type of players to avoid.

In a traditional KFC SuperCoach season, strategic planning around the byes is where the serious KFC SuperCoach players will gain an advantage over their casual counterparts and make big strides.

In 2020, given the condensed fixtures and incoming byes in Round 10 and 11, there will be a similar opportunity for those that are properly prepared.

To recap the announced KFC SuperCoach changes:

In Round 10 and 11 KFC SuperCoach will move to a “best 18” scoring format where only the top 18 scores in your KFC SuperCoach sides will count.

There will be one extra trade per week from Rounds 9-12 (an increase in total trades from 30 to 34) while three trades can be used per round from Rounds 9-12.

In Round 10, Carlton, Hawthorn, West Coast and Fremantle will have a bye.

Sydney and Greater Western Sydney will have a bye in Round 11.

The strategy for this period can be broken up into two parts – how to get an advantage during the best 18 scoring and how to navigate the condensed fixtures successfully.

Here are Doctor SuperCoach’s tips on how to handle the fixture cram:

BEST 18 SCORING

In seasons past, byes have typically consisted of six sides having a rest – therefore byes in 2020 with two or four teams should be relatively straightforward.

Some key principles remain, such as ensuring you have a minimum 18 players.

But the key question is, how can KFC SuperCoaches maximise point scoring potential in these weeks?

Firstly, it is important to consider that the precedent has been set and that a two-team bye round will trigger “best 18” scoring.

This is important because with 10 teams still to have their bye, we could conceivably have up to five more bye rounds and five rounds of “best 18” scoring.

The impact of this change in KFC SuperCoach is dramatic.

Patrick Cripps is one of the most-popular premiums who will have a bye in Round 10.

Tom Mitchell is another big gun who will have a rest in Round 10.

A “best 18” scoring system allows for the lowest and poor scores to be excluded from your weekly total, which means players with higher variance become more valuable.

Additionally, with just 18 scoring players, the variance between weekly scores of the round becomes lower, which means it will be harder to move/fall in rank, particularly if it is quite easy to field a playing 18.

Now let’s put a working example behind this scenario.

A team has 15 amazing scorers and 5 good scorers available for a bye round.

The 15 amazing scorers will be in the “best 18” and three of the five good scorers will also be included.

If those five good scorers are all good value premium players with expected scores of 90, the five scores should be 90, 90, 90, 90, and 90.

With three of them included in the best 18 scoring, we can expect 270 points from those players.

However, if the five good scorers were players with high variance, the five scores may look like this: 120,150,70,60,50.

Given only three of these scores would count in your best 18, you would receive the 120, 150 and 70 for a total of 340 points with the 60 and 50 dropping out.

This is a strategy to take moving forward, where coaches can focus on bringing in good players with high variances and players who are top-end premiums, rather than the penny pinching value picks.

MORE SUPERCOACH:

KFC SuperCoach cheapie guide: The rookies to watch in Rounds 9-12

Champion Data examines the key KFC SuperCoach stats ahead of Round 9

KFC SuperCoach: Trade targets, rookie options and everything you need to know for rounds 10-12

KFC SuperCoach stars who have dominated in Queensland in past five seasons revealed

CONDENSED FIXTURES

This has never been seen before in KFC SuperCoach — with condensed fixtures and an extra trade per round during this period.

How can we best use this to our advantage and move up the ranks?

There are some key points that need to be noted.

Team sheets with line-ups (no extended interchange) will be announced by the clubs at 6.20pm the day before matches.

This means during Round 10, which spans from Monday, August 3 to Friday, August 7, the selection fate of players due to feature in the later matches will not be known until very late in the round.

This can have significant consequences, if premiums or rookie players are rested due to the tight scheduling and majority of your KFC SuperCoach side is already locked out.

For example, if Jordan Ridley was rested in the Friday match, most players in your KFC SuperCoach side will already be locked out and unable to be shuffled to provide bench cover or trade alternatives.

Adam Treloar missed games earlier this season with injury and has a condensed fixture coming up.

Dayne Zorko is another top scorer who has had injury worries this year.

This means that given coaches will be awarded three trades per round, a shrewd strategy could be to hold one or two trades until the final team are announced, in case any players are unexpectedly rested.

Another strategy to employ could be to avoid young players or older players who may not cope with playing so many games in such a limited time frame — particularly if they have just returned from or are at a heightened risk of a soft tissue injury.

Some teams who have particularly tough fixture runs include Collingwood, who play four matches in 14 days across three different states and Geelong, who play four matches in 14 days.

Coaches may want to avoid players like Dayne Zorko, who is older and has had soft tissue injuries earlier this season and has been scheduled to play four matches in 16 days.

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Originally published as Doctor SuperCoach analyses KFC SuperCoach’s best 18 rounds and how to prepare for 30 games in 22 days