Biggest price jumps and falls for SuperCoach 2020
Devon Smith was priced at more than $530,000 at the beginning of 2019, before experiencing a monster yearly price drop. He’s just one of the biggest movers from 2019 compared to 2020.
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SuperCoach player prices are based on a complex formula based on past form and scoring potential.
But some players threaten to blow up the computers at SuperCoach banking HQ.
A close look at the full list of player prices for the 2020 SuperCoach AFL season reveals the players who stand out from the crowd due to a massive spike or fall from their price tag this time last season.
That’s valuable intel when looking for all-important value next season. Here are 20 names that caught our eye.
2020 TEAM PICKER: START SELECTING YOUR TEAM NOW
10 BIG PRICE DROPS
Devon Smith (Ess) FWD-MID
2019 starting price: $531,300
2020 starting price: $335,800
Price change: -$195,900
A huge price discount for Bombers midfielder Smith, who was limited to seven games in 2019 due to knee issues. Smith averaged 97.9 points in 2018 and will be a popular choice in forward lines next year. He’s got the potential to be a top-eight forward in 2020 if fully fit.
Robbie Gray (Port) FWD-MID
2019 starting price: $525,500
2020 starting price: $453,000
Price change: -$72,500
Gray bottomed out in price at $392,000 this year before scoring five hundreds during the run home when injected back into the midfield. If you don’t want to splash top dollar for a F3, the Power star could be your man. Just be prepared for a rollercoaster ride.
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Stephen Hill (Frem) DEF-FWD
2019 starting price: $389,200
2020 starting price: $190,600
Price change: -$198,600
Even with his injury history, a dual-position player who’s in the best 22 needs to be considered. Before playing 16 games in the past two years, Hill hadn’t averaged less than 80 in the past six seasons. If his body is right, he could be a perfect F6 or D6 as a stepping stone to a fallen premium. He’s got the biggest discount of any player from 2019.
Tom Doedee (Adel) DEF
2019 starting price: $446,200
2020 starting price: $273,700
Price change: -$172,500
The Adelaide defender was one of the top SuperCoach cash cows of 2018 when he averaged 82.2 points from 20 games. A knee injury ruined his 2019 campaign but Doedee should slot straight into the back six under new coach Matthew Nicks. A perfect D4 or D5.
Lance Franklin (Syd) FWD
2019 starting price: $543,500
2020 starting price: $394,200
Price change: -$149,300
Franklin’s starting price is at the top end of mid-price, which is generally an absolute no-go zone. But it’s been hard to ignore the off-season talk about his return to full fitness. Franklin has only twice averaged under 90 since 2006 and the Swans play Adelaide, Essendon, Gold Coast and Carlton in the opening month of 2020.
Jack Steven (Geel) FWD-MID
2019 starting price: $513,500
2020 starting price: $361,700
Price change: -$151,800
Lock him into your forward line if he’s in Geelong’s Round 1 side. There’s a midfield vacancy to be filled at the Cats after Tim Kelly’s return to WA and Steven’s four-year average from 2015-18 of 98.1 would have ranked top-10 for forwards this year.
Tom McDonald (Melb) FWD
2019 starting price: $529,800
2020 starting price: $387,000
Price change: -$142,800
Don’t go there without some indication he’ll be playing in defence again regularly. McDonald’s career-best average of 97.6 from 2018 was a clear outlier and he dropped by 26.3 points this year. Steven and Devon Smith are cheaper with far more upside.
Tom Hawkins (Geel) FWD
2019 starting price: $552,900
2020 starting price: $465,000
Price change: -$87,900
How does the new-look Geelong forward line operate with Hawkins and Josh Jenkins in tandem? He started at premium price last year after averaging 101.8 in 2018 but 2012 is the only other season in a 13-year career he has averaged above 90. Pass.
Jack Gunston (Haw) FWD
2019 starting price: $521,400
2020 starting price: $433,600
Price change: -$87,800
The $425,000 to $450,000 zone is about as awkward a starting price as SuperCoach can offer. You’re better off looking at options who are $100,000 cheaper or finding the money to select premiums such as Dustin Martin and Lachie Whitfield.
Chad Wingard (Haw) FWD-MID
2019 starting price: $481,100
2020 starting price: $412,300
Price change: -$68,800
Wingard might be the most interesting player on this list. Plenty of coaches considered him last year after his move to Hawthorn at $481,100, so why wouldn’t we again with a discount of almost $70,000? He averaged 91.5 between Rounds 17 and 22 this year and any indication of more midfield time would be a huge bonus.
10 BIG PRICE JUMPS
Reilly O’Brien (Adel) RUCK
2019 starting price: $136,800
2020 starting price: $517,400
Price change: $380,600
Took his chance after Sam Jacobs suffered a rare injury, making his AFL debut in Round 3 last year and never looking back after scoring 85 and 84 in his first two games. By the end of the year he had logged scores of 181, 149 and 123 and Jacobs left for more opportunities at GWS. Will start 2020 as the Crows’ No. 1 ruckman but he’s not challenging Brodie Grundy and Max Gawn just yet.
Sydney Stack (Rich) DEF
2019 starting price: $102,400
2020 starting price: $435,100
Price change: $332,700
Tiger cult hero was a revelation after bursting on to the scene with a 108 on debut, making plenty of cash before suffering an untimely end-of-season injury. Starts next season as a genuine mid-pricer, and his first challenge is to win his spot back in the Tigers’ best 22.
Rowan Marshall (StK) RUCK
2019 starting price: $341,100
2020 starting price: $598,700
Price change: $257,600
If you declared before Round 1 last year that Marshall would be one of the top SuperCoach picks of the year, people would have thought you had rocks in your head. Especially when he was overlooked by the Saints in Round 1 in favour of Lewis Pierce. After breaking into the team he scored tons in his first three games and went on to average 110 for the year, a remarkable achievement but one that likely prices him out of our calculations for 2020, especially in the ruck.
Josh Dunkley (WB) MID
2019 starting price: $516,300
2020 starting price: $632,400
Price change: $116,100
Hard to believe some people traded Dunkley out after a sluggish start to last season. A move to the midfield turbocharged his scores, averaging 126 for the rest of the year. His 2020 price is based on a 116 average for the whole season so remarkably the sixth-most expensive midfielder could be slightly underpriced.
Bachar Houli (Rich) DEF
2019 starting price: $399,600
2020 starting price: $571,600
Price change: $172,000
Producing a string of top-level SuperCoach scores has never been a problem for Houli, but 2019 was the first time he’d maintained that level over 19 games, if anything getting better as the year went on. Starts 2020 as the second-most expensive defender behind Sydney’s Jake Lloyd.
Caleb Daniel (WB) DEF
2019 starting price: $418,500
2020 starting price: $537,900
Price change: $119,400
A clever player who was a clever pick as a forward last year after switching to a new role at halfback. We have to pick him in the backline in 2020 and pay premium dollars but there’s no reason to think he won’t deliver similar numbers.
Toby Greene (GWS) FWD
2019 starting price: $354,6400
2020 starting price: $510,100
Price change: $155,500
Taking a gamble on Greene late last season paid off — sort of — for brave SuperCoach players. The polarising GWS star averaged 121 from Rounds 17-22 before missing the final round — and the SuperCoach grand final — with injury. Unfortunately, that’s always the risk with picking him, and next year he will be competing for a spot in the Giants’ midfield with returning stars Callan Ward and Stephen Coniglio.
MORE SUPERCOACH NEWS:
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Al Paton picks Lance Franklin in his first draft 2020 SuperCoach team
SuperCoach: Expert Dan Batten reveals his first team for 2020
Darcy Moore (Coll) DEF
2019 starting price: $239,400
2020 starting price: $405,800
Price change: $166,400
No mid-forward swing for Darcy next year and it’s hard to justify starting him at what is known in SuperCoach circles as a very awkward price - not reliable enough to pick as a keeper and not cheap enough to make a heap of cash.
James Worpel (Haw) MID
2019 starting price: $395,700
2020 starting price: $527,000
Price change: $131,300
Worpedo played nine games in 2018 at an average of 73 points a game, then 22 last year at a 97 average, including a hot streak from Rounds 17-22 when he averaged 123. It would take guts to select him in 2020, especially in the midfield, but don’t’ put anything past the Worpedo.
Brad Crouch (Adel) MID
2019 starting price: $418,000
2020 starting price: $534,100
Price change: $116,100
If you told Brad Crouch owners before Round 1 last year he would play 22 matches and score 129, 129 and 127, they would have been delighted. But he still managed to frustrate as his scores regularly dipped into the 80s even with high disposal numbers. And he doesn’t present the same value next season. Pass.
Jordan Dawson (Syd) DEF
2019 starting price: $260,600
2020 starting price: $467,800
Price change: $207,200
The Advertiser’s SuperCoach expert The Phantom is the No. 1 fan of the Sydney running defender as a 2020 bargain selection, but unfortunately he’s not all that cheap thanks to a fast finish to last season that included six 90-plus scores from his last nine games. If he can push his season average to 100 - and the Phantom says he can - he still presents great value.
Originally published as Biggest price jumps and falls for SuperCoach 2020
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