Scott Gullan: Melbourne should have seen Clayton Oliver trade issue coming amid off-field problems

Stalwart Alex Neal-Bullen wanted out. Christian Petracca flirted with a trade. Now, Clayton Oliver has dropped a bombshell on Melbourne. And SCOTT GULLAN says, the Demons should have seen it coming.

MELBOURNE. 24/04/2023. AFL. Round 6. Melbourne vs Richmond at the MCG. Clayton Oliver of the Demons celebrates a goal after the 3\\4 time siren . Pic: Michael Klein

In basketball terms, Geelong has gone a full-court press on Clayton Oliver.

And generally when the Cats lock an opposition star in their sights, they deliver with premiership heroes Patrick Dangerfield and Jeremy Cameron Exhibit A and B.

While there was one very public miss when coach Chris Scott and captain Joel Selwood were caught at the airport flying into Adelaide to try and convince Port star Travis Boak to come home, their strike rate is better than most.

The one wood they have in their bag is the country vibe sell, the cruisy life down by the coast which has been a recipe for many successful trading raids over the past couple of decades.

This week the Cats took it to another level, meeting Oliver at ruckman’s Rhys Stanley’s farm to ram home the point.

Oliver met with the Cats this week. Picture: Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images

The Demons premiership midfielder — a former country boy from Mooroopna, near Shepparton — is an easy target to be seduced.

He wasn’t wanted by his club 12 months ago and after an indifferent season — thanks to a restricted pre-season and then injury — it’s no surprise that the whispers started again that Melbourne were open to offers.

Then one of his former close mates, fellow midfield star Christian Petracca, goes ballistic on the club and says he wants out because of the way they badly mishandled his season-ending injury.

Throw in favourite son Alex Neal-Bullen walking out the door and suddenly the 2021 premiers have a serious whiff about them and that premiership window Oliver thought he would be a part of for several years is now seemingly slammed shut.

So when Cats vice-captain Tom Stewart and Stanley sat him down at the farm and talked up a midfield for next year which would include Bailey Smith – who is expected to join from the Western Bulldogs – Max Holmes, Jack Bowes, Tanner Bruhn, Cam Guthrie and Dangerfield, it’s easy to understand why Oliver came away excited about that prospect.

The Cats fluffed their lines in a close preliminary final this year against eventual premiers Brisbane. Add Smith and Oliver to that team and it screams premiership outfit every day of the week.

What version of Oliver are the Cats getting? Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

All this warm and fuzziness is well and good for Oliver and his new mates but there is one major sticking point. The 27-year-old has six seasons left on a contract that has him earning over $1 million per year.

That’s a big number to move and any chance of it happening might come down to how much Melbourne really wants him out and would they be willing to pay some of his wage to make it happen.

It will most likely become a fire sale given the Cats will use their first-round selection (around No. 20) to secure Smith so the Demons won’t be getting a high draft pick, instead possibly a package of picks and a young talented fringe player such as Mitch Knevitt.

The question some Cats fans will be asking is why.

Bailey Smith seems destined for the Cattery. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images

Oliver carries more baggage than any other AFL player with his troubles widely documented in recent years. So why risk the farm on a player who hasn’t been anywhere near his best for two years.

That’s when they produce Exhibit C – Tyson Stengle. He was a troubled soul who everyone had forgotten and the Cats got him on the straight and narrow, turning him into an All-Australian and premiership goal sneak.

(Although it has been conveniently forgotten that Stengle was found unresponsive on a nightclub floor during the season but the Cats played the “nothing to see here” card brilliantly).

The bottom line is that a committed, happy, 2022 version of Clayton Oliver for Geelong is nothing but a slam dunk.

Originally published as Scott Gullan: Melbourne should have seen Clayton Oliver trade issue coming amid off-field problems