AFL trade analysis: Jon Ralph analyses what Richmond, Geelong dominance means
The fallout of this year’s trade period will be far-reaching and the AFL must act to avoid “irreparable” damage, writes Jon Ralph.
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The AFL’s equalisation system has toppled even the mightiest of 21st century empires.
Premiers Essendon, Brisbane, Collingwood and Hawthorn hit a wall when salary cap pressures and the lack of early draft picks combined to nobble them — for a period at least.
As clubs shook themselves off after a bruising, turbulent marathon of a trade period last night it was impossible to escape the reality.
Richmond and Geelong exposed a system that for the best teams no longer has a boom-bust cycle given the vast array of AFL-endorsed ways to stay in premiership contention.
And expansion teams GWS and Gold Coast, having worked so hard with a flurry of trade moves, had only just kept their heads above water as their historical disadvantages were laid bare.
The AFL’s cycle of where teams thrive, then survive, then thrive again under a system where the national draft was the only talent mechanism is broken.
And the AFL has $4.5 billion reasons through a TV rights deal depending on nine quality games a round to worry about whether it has promoted a two-tiered system.
AFL fixture boss Travis Auld, so used to pulling a Covid rabbit out of his hat, will have a hell of a time attempting to piece together a fixture next year.
The Roos, Essendon, West Coast and Hawks are deep in rebuilds and St Kilda has admitted it might need to take a step backwards to then go forward.
So why is Geelong and Richmond’s dominance of the trade period any different to past seasons?
The league’s capacity to bring in all manner of player movement vehicles — free agency, delisted free agency, mid-season trades, salary dumps — means clubs do not have to rebuild any more.
The smart, rich, established clubs get to use every one of these mechanisms to remain at the top.
And it could do irreparable harm to the spirit of equalisation.
Geelong might only have won a single flag since 2011 but it has won the most games in that time, played in a string of preliminary finals and looks set to stay strong for the decade to come.
Last night the Cats secured No.17 draft selection Ollie Henry from Collingwood to add to a draft booty of Jack Bowes and Tanner Bruhn and still got to keep swingman Esava Ratugolea.
They have used their culture and success in combination with those canny list decisions to buck the equalisation trend.
They secured Tyson Stengle as a delisted free agent.
They used the easy movement of free agency to secure Patrick Dangerfield and Coleman Medallist Jeremy Cameron at a time both were in the top handful of players in the game.
They ended up being forced to trade both those players but the mechanism gave them confidence to choose their new destination.
Their Norm Smith Medallist Isaac Smith came as an unrestricted free agent.
They maximised future pick trading by securing the mid first-rounder from Gold Coast’s special assistance package (11) for 27 and 64 and now through strict salary cap management they have feasted upon the Gold Coast cap dump.
It would be a revelation to open the books of Geelong and Gold Coast and compare the figures they pay players.
Gold Coast has been forced to pay a fortune for the veterans who didn’t flee like Tom Lynch and Steven May, has been forced to pay ridiculous figures for Ben King and Jack Lukosius in their fourth seasons.
How does the AFL intervene?
The league must have a serious conversation about mandatory three-year deals for first-round picks to stop the inflationary effect that sees them secure $450,000 deals 24 months into their careers.
It won’t stop them leaving but it will stop rebuilding clubs attempting to stockpile first-round picks from having their salary cap smashed.
The fact Gold Coast is worried about the cost of having too many quality top-10 picks should be cause for huge concern.
The AFL needs to crack down on what can only be viewed as draft tampering as potential recruits make clear to sides including GWS if they are drafted they will flee at the first possible chance.
GWS officials Jason McCartney and Adrian Caruso screamed what they had previously whispered on Wednesday - that players outright tell them they won’t play at their clubs.
The AFL, having opened Pandora’s Box, is unlikely to try to close it any time soon.
They will point to a rollicking season and a successful premiership winning the flag for the first time since 2011.
But when its expansion sides recruit with a hand tied behind their back and are ravaged by the year — with a Tasmanian team to endure the same issues in coming seasons — equalisation is clearly a catch-phrase rather than a reality.
WHERE TO NEXT FOR TIGERS AFTER STUNNING TRADE HAUL?
Jon Ralph
Richmond will look to extend star mid-forward Shai Bolton in the coming months after nailing a perfect trade period that will extend their premiership window.
Richmond list boss Blair Hartley revealed on Wednesday the heist to secure GWS midfielders Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper had been over a year in the making with the Tigers planning for the twin acquisition as early as last season.
Hopper said an unexpected pitch from Dustin Martin during his tour of Punt Road had been another factor to help him choose Richmond.
Damien Hardwick’s side has given up immense trade capital in picks 12, 19, 31 and a future first-rounder but in the trade period it retained key players Ivan Soldo and Jack Graham.
Graham had looked around and met with Port Adelaide, while Soldo at one stage looked likely to head to GWS as part of the Jacob Hopper deal.
Hartley said the ability to split the Taranto and Hopper deals had helped the Giants secure the No.1 overall pick, with GWS eventually deciding to retain cap space instead of securing Soldo.
The Herald Sun revealed recently that talks had started on a new long-term deal past 2023 for the brilliant match-winner Bolton.
Hartley said on Wednesday those talks would now escalate, with Richmond to take picks 53 and 63 to the draft and make decisions on the uncontracted Sydney Stack and Riley Collier-Dawkins.
“They have already started,” Hartley said of Bolton’s talks.
“I have a strong relationship with Anthony Van Der Wielen from Perth. He had taken on Shai Bolton and we will work to get that done. Shai is a special player and he’s put in a heap of hard work.
“We are even more excited about what he is going to do in the future and we will lock that away.”
The Tigers need to elevate Stack onto the senior list after his time as a rookie but could choose to delist him then re-rookie him, aware it would allow rivals to swoop.
Hopper said he was thrilled to be able to continue his football journey alongside great mate Taranto, revealing Dustin Martin’s wooing had played a small role.
“Dusty has been brilliant. He was very good when I had my walk-through (of Punt Rd) so he’s been great. I haven’t spoken much to Dusty (before) so it was good. He was brilliant, very good.
“To do it together (with Taranto) is really unique and cool and I am looking forward to it
It’s massively exciting but obviously the list is still in a great position to be super successful.
“I am looking forward to contributing in every way I possibly can. Get me out there and I will do whatever it takes. It was huge to get the call yesterday. I am super-pumped. I feel like I have almost been drafted again. It was super exciting to get the news yesterday and become a Tiger.’’
Hartley told Trade Radio the Tigers were confident in securing Hopper and Taranto on seven-year deals.
“Those decisions don’t come lightly. It’s not like we are flippant about throwing around seven-year deals. Since the advent of free agency managers have looked to lock away players with security. There are some risks involved but they are calculated ones.
“Dion Prestia signed for five years at the end of 2016 and then signed a three-year extension so when you are looking to attract high quality players to your club these things are what you need to consider and we don’t do that lightly.”
He said the Tigers were thrilled to retain Soldo despite believing at some stage they would have to move him on.
“We had a mature conversation with his manager and if Ivan wanted to explore his options we wouldn’t stand in his way. The longer it went on we wanted to keep Ivan and GWS were in a position to realign their salary cap. So Ivan stays at Richmond and we are delighted he is staying with us and looking forward to what he is going to bring next year.’’
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