Pure Footy: Stats men David King and Daniel Hoyne examine the 10 teams that missed finals
Which players do the bottom 10 teams need to snare in the post-season to turbo-charge their finals ambitions for 2023? See who the experts say your team should chase.
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Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh in the midfield – tick.
Twin targets Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay up forward – tick.
A backline marshalled by Jacob Weitering and featuring All-Australian contender Adam Saad and unlucky omission Sam Docherty – tick.
That leaves one position that Carlton needs to fill – and doing it this trade period could catapult the Blues into the top four next season, according to North Melbourne champion David King and Champion Data analyst Daniel Hoyne.
On this week’s episode of Pure Footy, King and Hoyne put the 10 teams that missed finals under the blowtorch to judge what went wrong this season, what needs to improve and which trade targets can help them jump up the ladder in 2023.
WATCH THE FULL EPISODE OF PURE FOOTY ABOVE
9. CARLTON
After trying players including Lochie O’Brien, Jack Newnes and Matthew Cottrell on the wing this season, Hoyne said the Blues had to attack the trade period with a specific focus.
“I am absolutely going full steam to get a wingman or two,” he said.
“I know Karl Amon is linked to Hawthorn, pinch him off Hawthorn, or go for Blake Acres –out of contract, up for grabs. That’s the only position that hasn’t had someone locked away.
“They haven’t had a winger for a number of years. Go and get one. Everything else is finished.”
Despite the pain of missing finals, Hoyne said the future is bright.
“Big picture (this year) – clear, clear, clear improvement.
“There is absolutely no reason why that profile doesn’t elevate them to minimum top-six finish next year.”
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10. ST KILDA
St Kilda ranks mid-table on all pillars in Champion Data’s “core four” – with the footy, without the footy, clearances and post-clearance contested possessions – and that’s a “dangerous place to be in” according to Hoyne.
“What’s your point of difference? What’s your strength area? Where’s the room for improvement?
“To me it makes sense why they are potentially going to go really hard for Jordan De Goey.
“They need a point of difference midfielder. De Goey is that for them.”
King said the Saints had become a “vanilla” team and had dropped off badly in key areas in the second half of the season.
“How do you have such a fluctuation with your own talent? Are you not absolute with your football club with what you demand?”
11. PORT ADELAIDE
Hoyne says it’s time for Ken Hinkley to unlock the Power’s offensive ball movement after another season of solid numbers resulted in disappointment.
“Karl Amon is a significant loss, but in the round 23 game against Adelaide we saw Kane Farrell go down back and he rated extremely well. Whether or not he can play the role that Mitch Duncan does, that Christian Salem does, that Brayden Maynard does – these creative half-backers that generate some offensive ball movement. If you’re not going to get someone externally, Farrell is the one that can move to the backline and become your offensive weapon.”
King said Hinkley needed to give Geelong coach Chris Scott a call.
“We can defend, we’re bulletproof at winning the ball back and contest-wise we’re really good ... but you can’t challenge the best teams if you can’t move the ball.
“Why has Chris Scott reinvented his game plan? I think that’s what Ken needs to do. Have the courage to completely go bust to win the thing.”
12. GOLD COAST
The Suns won three more games than last year but the Suns’ core four profile hasn’t improved a lot – in 2022 Gold Coast ranked 14th without the footy and 11th with it.
“I’m a fan of Stuey Dew but when you look at these sorts of numbers and dig a bit deeper, does this brand actually work? Are they maximising their midfield elite talent?” King said.
Hoyne said next season would be critical for the Suns.
“No more excuses from a youth point of view or a talent point of view. That talent is there, even despite Izak Rankine leaving.”
13. HAWTHORN
King made the bold call that James Sicily could be the answer to the Hawks’ biggest issue – a lack of midfield impact.
“I think that James Sicily can play the Dustin Martin role,” he said.
“A weapon in the midfield that may not necessarily be a clearance player, a la Jeremy Cameron, but he can be a threat.
“I know he can be an All-Australian centre half-back, but I think he’s got more to offer and I’d be maximising him.”
“They need the two Cs – class and clearance, it’s as simple as that.”
14. ADELAIDE
Elite talent Izak Rankine will be a huge addition to the Crows list, but King said he needs to become more than a dazzling goalsneak to give a return on Adelaide’s huge investment.
“You can’t be getting Rankine to play forward pocket for $800,000 a year,” he said.
“He has to be a midfielder at the Adelaide Football Club or what are you doing?
“He’s a star inside that forward 50 but at that price and that tenure, which we are led to believe is five years, he needs to be more than that.
“Getting Rankine this year is huge and surely they’ll go after (Jason) Horne-Francis the year after, so maybe this rebuild, through a bit of the go-home factor, can be fast-tracked.”
15. ESSENDON
Essendon’s priority in the player movement period has to be the back half after ranking 17th and 16th on the core four defensive measures in the past two years.
“They’ve got to find an elite interceptor behind the ball that causes concern from an opposition moving the ball from one of the ground to the other,” Hoyne said.
“The best teams in the competition have that roadblock – you have to try to avoid Jake Lever, or Tom Stewart, or Darcy Moore and Jeremy Howe. You can play aggressive footy against Essendon knowing there is no one there you have to worry about.”
King said the “domino effect” of finding that player could be huge, allowing Jordan Ridley to become more of an attacking weapon.
Hoyne added a shortage of ground ball talent in the forward 50 was another huge issue for Essendon’s next coach.
“Anthony McDonald-Tipingwuti has been a massive loss for them, so they have to go out and find one or two of those ground-level players who can apply some pressure and help that without the footy profile.”
16. GWS GIANTS
The Giants could lose two top-line midfielders in the trade period, but Hoyne said that might be a good thing for the development of a team that went backwards in 2022.
“They lost their point of difference which was their clearance and contest game, so I think their midfield needs to be re-energised,” he said.
“The potential of them losing (Jacob) Hopper and (Tim) Taranto isn’t a bad thing.”
King said the Giants also had to start thinking about life after Toby Greene, who was a sole shining light up forward for much of 2022.
17. WEST COAST
Not much went right for the Eagles this year, from injuries to Covid, but Hoyne said they could be in for more pain.
“Their list management decisions over the next couple of weeks are going to be really interesting. Where their list is at the moment they are short in each third of the ground, so where do you start?
“For me it’s the midfield. (Luke) Shuey is 32 now, (Jack) Redden is 31, (Elliot) Yeo played some really good footy across half-back, (Andrew) Gaff is 30-plus and Tim Kelly is the big one. They gave up the farm for Tim Kelly, he’s 28 and he’s been a disappointment since he’s arrived.
“With pick 2 in the draft they have to select best midfielder available.”
18. NORTH MELBOURNE
The Kangaroos ranked last in all four pillars of the core fore in 2022 – so Alastair Clarkson has plenty of work to do.
But King said the talent is on the list to start the long climb back up the ladder.
“I think they’ve got three potential All-Australians. LDU (Luke Davies-Uniacke) is the fifth-ranked midfielder post-round 15, No.1 in the AFL for loose-ball gets and the No.1 centre clearance player. Only Tom Barrass took more intercept marks than Ben McKay in the back half of the season, and Nick Larkey is an interesting one – is he going to be Drew Petrie, rock solid for 300 games, or is he better than that?”
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