Months of dead-rubbers: How this AFL season could be a bust for fans as fixture flaws in the gun
Could we be set for the most lop-sided season in recent memory? There could already be as many as six clubs out of the finals race, and it’s the first week of April.
AFL
Don't miss out on the headlines from AFL. Followed categories will be added to My News.
Fans could be in for months of dead-rubbers as the AFL could be set for its most unequal season in recent memory with six clubs already out of the finals race.
Four clubs are yet to win a game four rounds in, the first time in AFL history four clubs have that record.
West Coast, North Melbourne, Adelaide and Hawthorn are all winless to start the season
Herald Sun journalist Sam Landsberger said on the Herald Sun Footy Podcast this week you could “put a line through” those four club’s chances, while two other clubs in Richmond and Essendon were also out of the running.
“It’s the first week of April and I reckon we’re down to 12 clubs already,” Lansberger said.
“Some people were looking at Hawthorn on Sunday nearly rolling the reigning premiers, what a great season we’re in for, but I’m in the other camp, I think we’re in for a June-July-August of nothing but dead rubbers.
“You can put a line through those (0-4) clubs, and Richmond are 1-4 and you can put a line through them. They’ve got an injury list as long as the Flemington Straight, they’re not playing finals.
“Then you’ve got Essendon, they’re 2-2 but with a percentage of 80, they’ve got two wins but one of those wins is against Hawthorn, where they weren’t terrific, and a gutsy win against St Kilda, but they’re not playing finals.
“The Bombers might take umbrage to that but if you’re realistic and looking at the way they’re playing and the injury list they’ve got, you’ve got an absolute mountain to climb to get into the eight now.”
It would be in stark contrast to the 2023 season, with 14 sides a genuine chance of playing finals in Round 20, with Gold Coast 14th on the ladder but with nine wins and just one game out of the eight.
UNCOMPETITIVE COMP HIGHLIGHTS FIXTURE FLAWS
It would mean at least three games a round would be inconsequential, which Landsberger said was “shaping as an anticlimactic finish to the year”.
The lopsided season would also shape the finals race, poking more holes in the AFL’s uneven fixture with some sides on the fringe of the eight set to play bottom sides more times than others.
“It’s going to determine a finals spot, no doubt about it,” Landsberger said.
“To compound that you have North Melbourne and West Coast, they have two teams who look uncompetitive again (this year) and they have had two of the toughest starts they’ve had in a while, with a percentage under 60.
“They’re only going to win one, two, three games maybe between them in the year – West Coast potentially are not going to win a game this year, and North might only beat the Eagles.”
BLUES THE NEW PIES, DOGS THE NEW BLUES
The Western Bulldogs need to follow Carlton’s lead in flipping the script on close finishes after another horror tight loss on the weekend.
The Dogs are 1-6 in their last seven games decided by 10 points or less and Lansberger said they looked all at sea during the final term.
“In six of those losses they led at three-quarter-time, and they didn’t look like they knew what to do in those final few minutes against Geelong,” he said.
“I don’t think luck is a factor in close games when you get a pattern in results, it comes down to game management, scenario training, and I wonder if this week at the Bulldogs they’re really going to work on what do we do in these situations when we’re holding onto a lead or chasing to manufacture a different result.
“Because to go 1 and 6 in their recent close games, no doubt it cost them a finals spot last year, and if that trend continues I don’t think they can expect to play finals (this year).
“They need to bank four points in some of these close games.”
While a controversial umpiring decision marred the result, Saturday;s win over Fremantle continued Carlton’s perfect record in its nine tight finishes since its draw with Richmond to open the 2023 season.
Landsberger said the Blues had taken the title of kings of close finishes off the Magpies, who had a stunning record in close games last season.
However, it’s not as pretty reading for the Western Bulldogs.
He said the Dogs’ record was similar to that of the Blues before they flipped the switch, and “Carlton is the new Collingwood and the Dogs are the old Carlton”.
“(Carlton’s) game management late in games is unbelievable, they’re now nine and zip,” he said.
“In a competition where it’s tight at the top, it decides the difference between top four and top eight and potentially premierships.
“For them to be able to turn it around from where they were 18 months ago is extraordinary.”
More Coverage
Originally published as Months of dead-rubbers: How this AFL season could be a bust for fans as fixture flaws in the gun
Sad career news for Sam after SANFL star’s horror pub fall
His club has revealed what the 24-year-old said to his teammates in an emotional address last week.
Free trade tracker: Every player linked with your club
Trade requests, the latest rumours and every player linked with your club. Stay across every big AFL trade story and see who could be on the move in our Trade Tracker.