Moneyball: The drastic list choices Saints have on offer to fix rapidly sinking ship
West Coast could go above St Kilda with a win in Perth on Saturday. But more concerning than the Saints’ ladder position is the state of their list. Where do they go from here?
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Minimal trade bait and very limited interest from rival free agents … that is the troubling double-edged sword St Kilda finds itself in as it attempts to drag itself out of a dark hole.
The only real bright spark from a list management perspective is that the Saints have plummeted so far down the ladder that it looks well placed to secure a top five pick, to potentially secure one of explosive elite midfielders who populate the high end of the 2024 national draft.
St Kilda has won three games from 11 this season. To put that into context, last year’s wooden spooners West Coast have won just as many games, and even that could change on Sunday with the Eagles set to start as favourites against the Saints in Perth.
Amid the frustrating scenes this season there are no easy answers and no quick fix options for Ross Lyon’s team.
St Kilda wants to go back to the draft, knowing it doesn’t have the absolute A-grade young talent that clubs such as Gold Coast, GWS Giants, Carlton and emerging sides like Essendon possess.
The earliest recent high end pick, Mattaes Phillipou, who was taken at selection 10 in 2022, hasn’t been able to back up a solid debut season and has fallen out of favour after a frustrating start to this second year.
Consider their potential trade bait options, as the Saints try to move up the trade order … and you realise it’s going to be a near impossible talk to get another pick in the top 10.
Trade Max King for a few first rounders? That’s been the cry from some after the key forward has again endured issues with his body and his output in 2024.
Well, the old stands at Moorabbin have already been ripped down so the fans enraged by such a decision would have to find another piece of infrastructure at the Saints’ newly renovated home base to tear up … given there would be plenty of angst about such a move.
That doesn’t leave the Saints with many options.
From there, the options are few and far between. Brad Crouch was part of the club’s surge last year but might still have a little bit of currency despite being contracted for next season.
Dougal Howard lacks speed and would be unlikely to have many suitors who would be prepared to offer up enough to make a deal worthwhile.
Tim Membrey has some rival interest but as an unrestricted free agent so you would get very little back for him.
Keeping Josh Battle is essential, but far from a guarantee. Clubs such as Hawthorn and North Melbourne are desperate for key defenders and will come with plenty of ammunition.
There are some young kids we haven’t seen a lot of yet as well as the four players who have made their AFL debuts this season - the highly-talented Darcy Wilson, Lance Collard, Angus Hastie and Hugo Garcia.
Arie Schoenmaker has good potential and key position back Isaac Keeler has plenty of promise despite not getting a look-in so far.
The young players who impressed last year - Philippou, Mitch Owens and Marcus Windhager - haven’t been as dynamic this season, but will still play a big role in the club’s future.
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera had a slow start to the season, but has been building again.
But as Lyon goes to work looking to fix a midfield that looks broken, it seems near impossible for the Saints to secure elite free agency targets while keeping that prized first round draft pick that right now sits at pick four.
Hugh McCluggage has already told St Kilda it is a hard no about moving there as he edges closer to signing a deal of up to six years at Brisbane.
Jarrod Berry wants to stay at the Lions.
St Kilda has some interest in Rory Lobb as a forward-ruck but he does not look like a long-term answer to their current ills.
Geelong free agent Tyson Stengle would solve part of the Saints’ small forward problems if they could wrench him out of GMHBA Stadium. The Cats have only been offered a similar financial deal to Stengle’s last one, so if the Saints open up their wallets, it could yet happen.
Cam Zurhaar hasn’t added to his value this season after a poor start to 2024. Could the Saints be desperate enough to lure him across and give him more midfield time to make him an explosive Jake Stringer type?
Let’s face it, the Saints have plenty of cash to offer up, but it’s more a question of ‘can they attract the right trade option or free agent to turn the needle?’ It’s doubtful.
So much of that comes back to perceptions. This time last year Lyon was driving the team on towards a finals berth, which made free agents and trade options willing to move, evidenced by Liam Henry, Paddy Dow and Riley Bonner choosing Moorabbin as a new home.
Henry even bypassed the Hawks for the Saints.
St Kilda will be a ‘watch this space’ in the trade and free agency window in October, even if the task might just be too great for them.
The more patient draft route might be Lyon’s best available option, even if it means a slow grind for long-suffering Saints fans.
Meanwhile, the Saints could loom as Rory Lobb’s best chance of a career lifeline next season, but the Dogs won’t get much back.
Lobb wants a trade from the kennel after being shunted to the VFL team amid some poor form.
Melbourne could also show interest if Lobb was prepared to play in the ruck.
The Saints need more talent and some forward firepower to help Max King.
The Dogs would only receive a late pick for him.
SWANS INSIST PARKER WILL STAY
Sydney chairman Andrew Pridham has insisted suspended Swan Luke Parker is “part of the furniture” and won’t be moving to a new club next year.
Parker hasn’t played an AFL game this season and won’t get the chance to present his case again for senior selection until at least round 18 after the VFL appeals board upheld the tribunal’s six-game suspension for his bump on Frankston’s Josh Smith.
The fact the three-time Swans best and fairest winner had to play four matches in the VFL without looking like getting back into a red-hot Sydney AFL side had rival clubs interested in seeing if they could lure him out of the Harbour City.
North Melbourne could be a perfect fit, given his leadership qualities, while other clubs in the premiership window could see him as an ideal back-up next season.
The 31-year-old is contracted to the Swans for next season.
Pridham told Moneyball he had little doubt that Parker could yet play a part in the Swans’ push for a premiership this year, let alone in the future.
Asked if he thought Parker would be at Sydney next year, Pridham said: “Absolutely.”
“It’s not been a great year for him, starting with breaking his arm against the Giants. But I have no doubt Luke will be back. He is a massive competitor and I am sure once he has served his suspension he will be back in the team.
“He is very much in our plans for the back end of this year (as well as next year). He is a part of the furniture and his leadership on and off the ground has been so important for us.”
PLEA TO GIVE FORGOTTEN PIE TIME
Ash Johnson might be the forgotten Magpie in Collingwood’s injury-hit season, but teammate Bobby Hill has urged Pies fans to stay patient with the high-flying forward who hasn’t played a senior game since round 2.
Johnson played the opening two games of the season - he didn’t kick a goal in either match - and has been languishing in the VFL ever since, with even a few cameos in defence in that time.
The 26-year-old, who was picked up in the 2021 mid-season draft, attracted the interest of a few rival clubs during stages of last year, but he opted to sign a one-year extension at Collingwood which takes him through to the end of 2025.
His stocks have fallen since that time - he played 15 games last season for 21 goals - and he took himself off social media after copping online abuse in the early part of this season.
Hill believes his teammate can play an important role for Collingwood in the future.
“Hopefully Ash will be back very soon,” Hill said. “He has great support from the footy club and I’ve always got his back.”
“I miss playing alongside him. He is a very special talent. He has got so much left to do on the footy field, so if he can get his confidence back, that would be nice.”
PIES LOOK TO EXTEND CHAMPION
Collingwood is expected to formalise a contract extension for Scott Pendlebury over the next month.
The club is keen on the champion onballer to play on for next year, continuing his brilliant career.
Pendlebury won’t play his 395th game against Western Bulldogs on Friday night after being ruled out with a bicep/arm issue earlier this week.
But the former skipper is on track to play in his 400th AFL match in the back half of the season.
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