Mick McGuane: Collingwood v Sydney round 1 preview, key match-ups, game trends for 2024
The Pies were soft and lacked physicality last week, writes MICK MCGUANE, and that won’t get the job done when they face a Sydney side with all the makings of a flag contender in 2024.
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Reining premier Collingwood will be desperate to avoid a 0-2 start to the season, but has a tough task against Sydney at the MCG on Friday night.
Footy analyst and Magpies premiership player Mick McGuane has taken a look at the two sides — and the key match ups which could determine the result of the round 1 blockbuster.
Plus, Mick gives his views on the footy trends we can expect to see more of from coaches in 2024 and gives his hot takes on some of the week’s big issues.
FRIDAY NIGHT SPOTLIGHT
COLLINGWOOD
It’s not panic stations for the reigning premiers after an opening round loss to Greater Western Sydney last weekend.
However, there are some players on notice and areas that need to change.
Let’s not forget that the Magpies were missing two hugely important players from their back line in Jeremy Howe and Nathan Murphy, while they are still learning to live without the injured and structurally important Dan McStay in attack.
There is a ‘watch this space’ on the experienced campaigners Scott Pendlebury and Steele Sidebottom, who worked into the game against the Giants but were off the boil early.
The pair are 36 and 33 respectively and despite being ultra-professional, sometimes the game can catch up with you and very quickly.
I’m not concerned about them just yet, but if they are still struggling in 4-6 weeks then coach Craig McRae will have some hard decisions to make.
SOFT DEFENCE
Let’s just say it — Collingwood’s defenders were soft, and lacked physicality last week.
Talk about easy to play against.
There’s no doubt the loss to the Giants would have been strongly reviewed and many of the poor efforts would have been called out.
GWS took 13 marks inside-50 for the night, many of which could and should have at least been neutralised.
Brayden Maynard allowing Jesse Hogan to have an unimpeded run at the footy was incomprehensible and summed up the issues.
The Magpies lacked hardness and body contact — which is essential as a defender.
Captain Darcy Moore was too indecisive, half-back’s Will Hoskin-Elliott, Oleg Markov and Isaac Quaynor played too assertive in their positioning and the Collingwood midfielders were not quick enough to fold back and fill pockets of space which the Giants ended up using.
It takes team synergy to form a rock solid defence and that was severely lacking.
If the Magpies are to stand a chance against Sydney this week, they’ll need to be a lot better defensively.
FORWARD WOES
Ash Johnson has been gifted a prime opportunity up forward on the back of Dan McStay’s knee injury.
But he didn’t look like he wanted to take it in a two-disposal display last weekend.
The 26-year-old — who is in his fourth season at Collingwood — is a flamboyant and skilful player who knows where the goals are.
But has he got the mental fortitude to play as a key forward at AFL level, knowing that good defenders will always be attached to his hip?
Johnson is never going to be your No. 1 target in attack, but he must lift his workrate and get to more contests if he wants to get a regular senior game.
Similar can be said about Mason Cox.
The Magpies’ forward 50 entries lacked purpose and poise last week, which didn’t help the forwards.
Only one of the side’s 11 goals came from a mark inside-50.
Finding a better balance between going fast or slow in attack will need drastic improvement this week against a strong defensive set-up in Sydney.
SYDNEY
The Swans are as much a contender as anyone in this year’s premiership race.
Why?
They have great team balance, they have strong leaders in all three areas of the ground and they showed in opening round that they can get the job done with some stars on the sidelines.
Luke Parker, Callum Mills and Taylor Adams are all missing, but the likes of Isaac Heeney, Errol Gulden, James Rowbottom and Tom Papley stepped up in the middle against Melbourne.
I had thought the Demons would have the upper hand in the onball battle entering the match, but that wasn’t the case.
The Swans are a serious team who should only become better when that trio of stars return.
GAME-CHANGER
Stoppages were a clear weakness for Sydney last year.
The Swans ranked 17th for clearance differential, 14th for points from clearances differential and 14th for contested possession differential.
Any midfield group is only as good as the ruckman at the centre of it and Sydney’s recruitment of Brodie Grundy looks set to be a game-changer.
The former Demon set the barometer around clearances and contested ball last week and took former teammate Max Gawn to the cleaners in the process.
His new teammates at the Swans rode on Grundy’s coat-tails and the side could have dominated the scores from stoppages count if not for some poor accuracy of 4.7 (31).
It was a template game in his new colours for two-time All-Australian Grundy, who played with some real aggression.
He had 15 contested possessions among his 23 disposals for the night, as well as laying six tackles, recording 33 hitouts and gathering nine clearances of his own.
If Grundy keeps up that sort of form, he will be by far the best recruit of the year and the Swans will be sitting pretty come September.
WONDERFUL WEAPONS
Beware, Collingwood.
If you snooze on Tom Papley, you lose.
Given the missing midfielders, Papley spent more time up the field for the Swans last week to great effect and will almost certainly to do the same against the Magpies.
He’s a player with an infectious energy who can get his team going and set up goals if he’s not kicking them himself.
Papley logged 12 inside-50s, nine score involvements and one goal from his 20 disposals against Melbourne.
Strong communication between the Collingwood midfielders and forwards will be essential when Papley spits forward after starting at centre bounce.
If it’s not top-notch, he’ll get off the chain once again.
Sydney also has a serious weapon at the other end of the ground who needs to be curtailed in Nick Blakey.
I love watching Blakey play.
He has got better in his one-on-one battles and he attacks the game and executes going forward.
Opposition teams will be putting a lot of time and effort into him this year.
KEY MATCH-UPS
Darcy Cameron and Mason Cox v Brodie Grundy and Hayden McLean
This ruck battle will have a big bearing on the result of the game. Grundy was dominant last week and McLean is the perfect back-up for him as a player who can also go forward and kick a goal. Cameron and Cox will have their work cut out trying to nullify their impact.
Isaac Heeney v Jordan De Goey and Jack Crisp
Heeney started the season in fine form through the midfield and the Magpies will need to give him some attention. A hot and cold combination of De Goey and Crisp could work. De Goey can challenge Heeney head-to-head by looking to push forward in general play and hitting the scoreboard, while Crisp could be used as a cooler if Heeney’s outstanding form of last week is replicated.
Jamie Elliott v Dane Rampe
Great players don’t play two bad games in a row. Connor Idun had the better of Elliott last week. The Magpies ace is likely to get a very experienced defender in Rampe on Friday night and he needs to step up. Could he be the point of difference for Collingwood and kick a bag of goals?
Tom Papley v John Noble or Isaac Quaynor
Brent Daniels proved last week that small forwards can hurt the Magpies if they are given the leg rope to do so. Daniels kicked four goals for the Giants and Papley is capable of similar impact this week. When he’s forward, Papley must be tightly checked and physically challenged by the Collingwood defenders. He can’t be allowed time and space as he can convert opportunities in a number of ways.
WHERE IS FOOTY TRENDING IN 2024?
The best coaches get ahead of the curve and implement game plans and strategies which set their sides apart and make them challenging to play.
Given this, footy is ever-evolving.
While we only have a small sample size of home-and-away games so far, pre-season training and practice games have also provided an insight on where the game is going this year.
Here are some of my key observations and predictions for 2024.
MANAGING MOMENTUM
We saw the power of momentum in opening round.
Carlton and Richmond both got back into games after they looked dead and buried in. It was on the back of major momentum swings.
There’s no doubt that teams are going to school on how they can better maximise their momentum within games, as well as how they can slow down momentum when their opposition has it.
The Blues trailed the Brisbane Lions by 46 points approaching time-on in the second quarter last Friday night, before kicking the next eight goals on the back of stoppage wins which gained territory and dominant forwards taking their opportunities.
Could the Lions have done more to slow that momentum? Definitely in my eyes.
For them to be a legitimate premiership contender, wresting back momentum is a major room for improvement area.
Too often they just think upping the tempo will rectify the problem.
That’s not always the answer.
Reading and knowing what is required is this group’s next challenge to master.
In the situation that Brisbane found itself in last week, you want to roll numbers up to saturate stoppages and create secondary ball-ups to take time of the clock. You might even create a third or fourth ball-up.
If positional adjustments need to be made out on the field, you must have leaders out there who can orchestrate them in the moment before it is too late.
RUN AND GUN
Team defences are ever improving and therefore sides need to find other avenues through them.
Expect corridor use to become more of a priority through 45-degree kicks this year, both short and long, which will attempt to shift the defence.
But if the opposition doesn’t give you those kicks, you will need a different mode to go into to get through the defence.
More clubs are likely to take on a ‘run and gun’ mentality and try to keep the ball in motion through handball chains in a bid to disrupt the opposition defensive structure.
Of course there is an element of risk if you turn the ball over, but in some cases it will be ‘who dare’s wins’.
Slow, kick-mark play which doesn’t shift the opposition’s defence is not going to help you post a winning score too often in 2024.
RISE OF THE STOPPER
The traditional midfield tagger has largely disappeared from the game.
However, coaches are increasingly looking to take away opposition weapons in the back half.
Billy Frampton had a role limiting Harris Andrews’ impact as a defensive forward in last year’s Grand Final, while Robbie Fox was sent to Jake Lever to do the same thing last week.
We’ve also seen players previously, like delisted Swan Ryan Clarke be used as a defensive forward against Nick Daicos in the 2022 Preliminary Final to great effect when he has been playing halfback early in that game.
There will be more of it in 2024, with other influential back-half players like Sydney’s Nick Blakey also likely to come under the microscope.
SPEED AND MORE SPEED
It wasn’t abundant in the opening round, with teams being a touch risk-averse early in the season.
However, expect a lot of teams to play the game at frenetic speed this year.
Particularly when teams win back the ball in their counter-attack region — around 40 to 70 metres from goal — they will look to go forward at speed and the beneficiary will be higher scoring.
Over pre-season, I observed plenty of teams training at speed and adopting drills which promoted fast play.
Coaches want their troops to play on from marks and change angles rather than slowly going back over the mark and assessing their options.
As sides warm into the season, we’ll see a lot more speed of ball movement — particularly in second halves when games open up.
HALF-BACK WEAPONS
Having players who are creative and quality ball-users across halfback has never been more important.
These players drive your counter-attack and help pierce through strong opposition defensive structures.
I had long called on former GWS coach Leon Cameron to bed down his back-six and place his two best run and carry players in Lachie Whitfield and Lachie Ash off halfback.
Adam Kingsley has done that and look at the results.
At Carlton, Adam Saad and Zac Williams will form a similarly formidable combination this year.
Essendon has put Nic Martin to halfback to join Mason Redman and Andy McGrath.
Port Adelaide has Ryan Burton, Dan Houston and Miles Bergman, while North Melbourne looks set to run with Harry Sheezel and Colby McKercher this year.
It’s not a new phenomenon.
Bailey Dale and Caleb Daniel were paired as a two-pronged attack off halfback at the Western Bulldogs years ago.
However, more coaches are realising that they need to follow suit.
MICK’S HOT TAKES
GOOD
Callum Brown is a super story and the Irish recruit showed last week what an impact he could have for the Giants this year as he booted five goals in a marquee match. He’s strong, athletic and kicks the footy better than many who have played the game for a lot longer.
BAD
Forget about the idea of a best-of-three Grand Final series. It’s a terrible proposal. We don’t need to be like some of the American sports. In our game it’s about making the most of your moment on one day in September. If you don’t seize the opportunity, you don’t deserve another chance.
UGLY
New Year, same issues with forward connection for Melbourne. The Demons had a whole summer to work on their No. 1 problem, yet only mustered nine goals from 51 inside-50s in the opening round. Granted, Kysaiah Pickett and Harrison Petty were missing. But this is about more than just the personnel in attack. The midfielders have to deliver the ball with greater effect than they currently do.
Originally published as Mick McGuane: Collingwood v Sydney round 1 preview, key match-ups, game trends for 2024
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