How Geelong let a grand final slip away and what 2025 can bring for Chris Scott
Geelong will have woken up knowing they blew a grand final berth. JOSH BARNES goes through the errors that let the Lions take charge of a preliminary final classic.
AFL
Don't miss out on the headlines from AFL. Followed categories will be added to My News.
Sometimes you just get beaten in finals.
But in the cold light of day, Geelong will know it blew this one.
While the Brisbane Lions stepped it up after half time on Saturday, the Cats will have woken up the day after knowing they let the preliminary final slip right through their hands.
From a 25-point margin in the third quarter, suddenly the season was over within an hour and heads were dropped from the men in the hoops as a grand final berth went down the gurgler.
But no other club or coach has been so good at copping the near misses, dusting off and coming back again the next year.
Chris Scott will no doubt have his team in position to go again in 2025, and a big name recruit will kick that process along.
THE PRELIM MOMENTS
As Scott said post-match, “basic errors” will haunt Geelong all summer.
The Cats had the game well and truly in control before bungling persistent opportunities at half-forward in the third and fourth terms, which opened up the game for Brisbane’s counterattacking style.
The Lions took those chances, and full credit to them, but they were handed golden looks off the backline by a series of misfortunes from a Geelong attack that had looked near-on perfect during the first half, and in the qualifying final two weeks prior.
When teams turn the ball over on the half-forward line on a quick attack in modern footy, it opens the corridor up for the opponent to slice right through.
The Lions barged through that space in the second half, leaving the Cats back six helpless at times.
And as they bounced the ball off the backline, Brisbane tallied up marks, with their 100 uncontested marks far too many for Geelong to withstand.
Rhys Stanley had the chance to dominate the game when Lion Oscar McInerney was winged but couldn’t quite grasp it, then smashed a late shot into the goalpost to put the nail in the coffin.
And Cats fans will wonder what could have been if Max Holmes didn’t slip in the centre square and aggravate his left hamstring, with his period off the ground in the third term coinciding with the monster momentum swing.
These are the moments the Cats will not want to relive.
VETERAN WOBBLES
Both uncontracted next year, Stanley and Mitch Duncan were tipped to play on before the preliminary final.
But neither will want to relive moments in the final minutes.
Brought on as the sub, Duncan had three disposals and two nightmare moments.
First he handed the ball to Will Ashcroft in the centre square, setting up a chain of Lions handballs that ended with Cam Rayner kicking the dagger match-sealing goal.
Then 45 seconds later, Duncan found the ball running into goal 25m out but couldn’t get it to boot fast enough and was run down by Jack Payne.
Shortly after that, Stanley received a free kick 10m out from goal and an easy conversion would have given the Cats one last chance at victory.
Instead he slammed the ball into the goalpost, creating a sound that will ring in the ears of Cats fans all summer.
MAX FACTOR
No player had more disposals in the first half than Holmes’ 16 and when he intercepted a Dayne Zorko kick and popped the ball over for an easy Patrick Dangerfield goal, the Cats were up by 25 points and cruising to a grand final.
Then Holmes slipped while trying to soccer the ball, felt for his hamstring and the walls closed in.
He spent the next 15 minutes off the ground as Brisbane pegged back the lead.
He would only briefly return to the field and that slip will linger for Cats fans for years.
Holmes’ injury was evened up by McInerney’s shoulder, but that won’t stop the Cats from wondering.
STEWART SWITCH
Scott has been unafraid this season to move the magnets around and with Holmes out of action, he threw Tom Stewart into the middle.
The problem there was Stewart had been dominant in the first half and was doing as he pleased off half-back, with the defence opened up more often without its best defender.
Stewart was OK in his role floating back from the midfield but wasn’t nearly as influential as he was earlier.
STENGLE’S SHOCKER
He possibly should have been All-Australian again this year but Tyson Stengle’s prelim final was likely his worst outing for Geelong.
He had 11 touches and most of them hurt the Cats.
That included a decision not to handball to Ollie Dempsey in the goalsquare, dropping a mark and then dribbling the ball across the face, failing to work defensively on multiple Lions chains in the third term, and missing Dangerfield when he was wide open in the forward 50 in the final term.
You can bet Stengle wouldn’t be calling Name-A-Game to get a replay tape.
MANNAGH’S MISTAKE
The margin was still at 19 points when Ollie Henry brilliantly found Shaun Mannagh for a mark 35m from Geelong’s goal in the third term.
The Cat chose to play on and instead of handballing to Stengle streaming into goal incomprehensibly decided to dribble the ball at the sticks.
Zorko gladly helped the ball through and the Lions went coast-to-coast for a Charlie Cameron goal.
The lead was now back to 14 points and the comeback was truly on.
‘BASIC ERRORS’
For six quarters this finals series, Geelong was incredibly slick, quick and skilful in the front half.
Then it all disappeared.
These were the “basic errors” Scott was talking about, as the Cats turned the ball over at half-forward over and over, with many of those mistakes coming from poor kicks when teammates were on.
Credit to Lions such as Brandon Starcevich, Ryan Lester and Jack Payne for their positioning but they must have been shocked to see some of the balls landing in their lap.
The Cats ended the game with seven more inside-50s but fluffed their lines when they had golden chances.
THE RUCK ROLES
Going into Saturday, the Cats clearly planned for Stanley to match minutes with McInerney and for Mark Blicavs to match with Joe Daniher.
It was a fine plan, but when McInerney went down, Geelong took too long to separate that plan and match Stanley on Daniher.
Stanley had his most influential patch in the second term but was pulled to the bench as the Lions put Daniher in the middle, negating what should have been an advantage for the genuine ruck.
SELECTION QUESTIONS
Scott and his team will always wonder what could have been at selection.
When you win, selection calls are great and when you lose they go wrong.
Shannon Neale battled for most of Saturday but was still mobile enough to largely make a contest, who knows if Tom Hawkins would have done better or worse.
Would Zach Tuohy have provided more punch as the sub than Duncan?
What if Tuohy was played instead of Oisin Mullin?
Those are rabbit holes the Cats could get lost in.
CONVERSION
While we are talking rabbit holes, missed shots at goal are both an underrated aspect of the game and also impossible to navigate as lines to what could have happened next.
A microcosm of his season, Jeremy Cameron missed three chances you would back him in to take, but the Lions fluffed chances of their own.
The expected score had Geelong winning 94-85, instead of the real margin of 85-95.
That 19-point swing points to Geelong blowing their lines in front of the sticks.
In the final term alone, Cameron missed two shots, Mannagh and Stanley hit the post.
PRESSURE GAUGE
The pressure stat can be misleading at times.
Brisbane tallied a game-high rating of 202 in the second term, a quarter that Geelong dominated.
The lowest rating of any side was the Cats in the third term with a paltry 148, the quarter that truly cost the Cats the game.
Did they let go of the rope and allow Brisbane to get their uncontested game going?
Everyone in footy knows the Lions are at their best when they can kick-mark and they racked up 111 marks on Saturday, 100 of which were uncontested.
It was too much.
NEALEY THERE
Scuttlebutt had Geelong putting a hard tag on Lachie Neale on Saturday, with Mullin the man for that task.
But it was Tom Atkins who spent the most time on the champion.
Neale had 11 disposals to Atkins’ eight in the 46 minutes they were together, not a bad return.
But the two-time Brownlow medallist ended the night with a vital 12 clearances – the next best on the field was Hugh McCluggage with six.
Brisbane won the clearance count by 10 and Neale was huge in that part of the ground.
Wonder if the Cats could have done more to stop him in congestion.
LIST MOVES
So where do the Cats go from here?
Everybody in the football world expects Bailey Smith to be in the hoops next year.
Pairing the Bulldog with Holmes reads like a dream scenario for the Cats, with both super runners and capable of burst from congestion.
The midfield was Geelong’s weakness for much of 2024 but the Cats straightened it out in the back half of the year.
Adding Smith should take them up a gear and his adaptability fits in Scott’s side as he likes to move players around.
Should Holmes take another step in 2025, he and Smith can carry the midfield with help from Dangerfield.
After Saturday’s match, veteran Blicavs declared Holmes can be a “superstar”.
Bringing Smith over from the Dogs will likely cost Geelong its first-round draft pick, which is currently slated for No. 16, but could drift into the 20s when academy and father-son picks lob.
This masthead revealed last week that Geelong had offered delisted Carlton forward Jack Martin a two-year deal, which if taken could push Gary Rohan out.
Martin is definitely talented but injury prone and would need to rapidly improve his fitness to fit in with Geelong’s emphasis on speed and endurance in the front half.
The Cats don’t want for much on the list.
Ruck is still a question mark, but Stanley was again serviceable, Sam De Koning showed glimpses of potential in there.
Toby Conway needs to get his body right, with the ruck spot his for the taking.
Stanley should be handed another one-year deal unless he wants to retire.
If the Cats let Stanley go, they would have to find a veteran back-up on the market somewhere, so the always-available ruck should return.
Duncan was due for another year before the preliminary final and wants to play on, with a discussion to be finalised post-season.
High ranking figures at Geelong were keen for Duncan to carry on given his leadership.
Dangerfield will sign a two-year contract and Jed Bews should also get another year after his late-season resurgence and a strong finals campaign.
Jake Kolodjashnij is also expected to finalise a new deal.
Zach Tuohy and Tom Hawkins are now retired, Brandan Parfitt will move on.
Stanley, Duncan, Dangerfield, Rohan, Bews would all be joined by Blicavs, Cam Guthrie and Tom Stewart as players over-30 at the start of next season, with Kolodjashnij and Atkins to turn 30 late in 2025.
Geelong had the second-oldest list in the AFL this year and that is little concern at GMHBA Stadium – it got them to within two kicks of the grand final.
And there is enough young talent there to keep fans positive.
Lawson Humphries was incredible in his first two finals and will surely be better with a proper pre-season under his belt, Ollie Henry stood tall in the prelim, Shannon Neale is going to get better, De Koning will come back in and youngsters Jhye Clark and Conway are highly rated.
2025 FORECAST
You can set your watch to it – the Cats will hit pre-season aiming to win the flag again.
Remember when Max Gawn thrashed the Cats by 83 points in the 2021 prelim?
The next year worked out pretty well for Geelong.
In 2022, Geelong had a near-clean bill of health when it counted and won it all, in 2023 injuries curtailed the flag defence, and in 2024 hiccups reared but they were largely healthy.
With a list in the high age demographic, health will always be a huge variable.
But the Cats are so good at picking themselves up off the canvas and going again.
Scott has now coached six preliminary final defeats and the message was the same every year following – Geelong goes again.
WAY TOO EARLY 2025 PREDICTED FINISH: 5th (15-8)
More Coverage
Originally published as How Geelong let a grand final slip away and what 2025 can bring for Chris Scott
Marinoff masterclass leads Crows in Giant demolition
Ebony Marinoff continued her stunning form as the Crows dismantled the Giants, while North Melbourne’s brilliant season has continued with a big win over the Swans in Hobart.
Clubs in tight tusstle for Bombers’ pick 9
North Melbourne has made a play for Essendon’s pick 9 in an attempt to bring Dan Houston to the club, but JON RALPH reports another club is set to swoop as the Bombers brace for an early bid on Isaac Kako.