Geelong has dominated Melbourne for years but is 2018 the year the tide turns for the Demons?
MELBOURNE has youth on its side, while Geelong is an ageing campaigner you can’t dismiss. The two teams face off in Round 1 in what will be a fascinating contest. Which team is likely to still be in the hunt come finals time?
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THEY are the yin and the yang of the 2018 season.
There’s Geelong, the grey-haired master black belt that defied an ageing status to remain at the top for more than a decade.
And then there’s Melbourne, the desperate to prove itself up-and-coming challenger.
When the two teams collide in Round 1 at a packed MCG, all the cameras will zero in on returning superstar Gary Ablett and the physical battering he will undoubtedly face from Dees tough nut Jack Viney.
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But the big-picture sliding doors moment for these two teams is far more significant.
Geelong has treated Melbourne as its whipping boy for the best part of a decade, beating the Dees in 12 of their past 13 meetings. The last time Melbourne finished ahead of Geelong was in 2006, when Neale Daniher and David Neitz led the red and blue to their last finals appearance.
But in the season opener, the super-talented Melbourne can surge past its nemesis, putting behind it the negative pre-season headlines about the players’ decision to protest against the commando camp that was deemed either unsafe, unwise or too hard. Or perhaps it was a combination of all three.
It’s the type of subject matter hard-nosed Geelong captain Joel Selwood could have a field day with in the centre square exchanges.
But you also suspect Max Gawn and his Demon teammates have had enough of this kind of bullying.
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The Dees appeared to turn a corner last season, thumping Adelaide on its own patch without Jesse Hogan to show — most importantly to themselves — they are indeed good enough to overcome the top weights.
Yes, Simon Goodwin’s men missed out on finals, again, by the narrowest margin in the game’s history after blowing the first half against Collingwood in Round 23. But Melbourne is now loaded with gun young players and top draft picks after shoring up its key defensive stocks by securing Jake Lever from Adelaide in the trade period.
Star forward Christian Petracca is moving into an expanded midfield role, ball magnet Clayton Oliver set records winning the best and fairest by a runaway margin in only his second season and Hogan is ready to become one of the league’s top key forwards after a painful 2017 season.
Jayden Hunt provides the electric run and Angus Brayshaw should still become a 200-gamer if he can overcome his concussion problems.
And this is where the direct contrast with sage warrior Geelong is fascinating.
Where Melbourne is rising into the premiership mix, the Cats are desperately trying to hang on and not fall out of contention.
They recruited one of the best players of all-time in Ablett to keep the dream alive. But this is a veteran team that has gone about this flag tilt differently to its 2007-11 domination.
Previously the kings of the draft, the Cats have had only one draft pick (Nakia Cockatoo) inside the first 14 selections over the past 10 years.
Instead of using a one wood at the draft table, talent expert Stephen Wells has had to rely on his irons in the trade talks and free agency moves to top up the squad. Think Zach Tuohy and Lachie Henderson.
They’ve been a consistent force over that time and defied Gill McLachlan’s equalisation policies, playing finals in 12 of the past 14 years. That includes nine top-four finishes. What a record.
But deep within Champion Data’s relative ratings assessments for 2018, there is a wailing siren and flashing red alert for Cats fans about their team’s youth.
The relative ratings essentially compare players to their peers of the same position and age bracket, using performance records dating back to 2010. It’s a well-respected guide for the industry about players’ rate of development.
A positive rating shows they’re ahead of the pack, or tracking above expectations. A negative rating indicates they’ve slipped behind, generally speaking.
Here’s the doozy. Not a single Geelong player under the age of 25 received a positive relative rating from Champion Data in 2017.
In this category, Geelong is ranked last entering the new season.
Perhaps that seems a little harsh on Tom Stewart, who starred in the semi-final win over Sydney, project tall Wylie Buzza and first-year hard nut Brandan Parfitt. They are all promising types.
But how times have changed.
Clearly, there’s a reliance on veterans such as Selwood, Patrick Dangerfield, Ablett, Tom Hawkins and Harry Taylor.
Depth is the big query.
But they have a revamped midfield, perhaps as good as any we’ve seen over the past decade, including Hawthorn’s famed set-up.
Clearly, the Cats have more silverware in their sights, but has the window shut? Hawthorn felt the brunt of “Father Time” last year, too.
Champion Data has Geelong and Melbourne neck and neck in the list quality rating. Melbourne is rated the fifth best, Geelong is sixth.
The Dees have 13 positive-ranked youngsters — ranked first. That puts them miles ahead in the young talent stakes. Overall, Melbourne has 12 above average or elite players, and Geelong has 11. Nothing separates them there.
And both are looking at this season as one of opportunity. They’re both a genuine premiership chance.
And while their list-building methods are chalk and cheese, it’s hard to think that either is necessarily the right or wrong way to build your way to flag contention.
What is important is the planets align, in terms of injury rates, game strategy and team morale. Think Richmond, and the Bulldogs in 2016.
Yet both the Dees and Cats have plenty to prove, and their Round 1 clash will give us an indication.
Geelong coach Chris Scott was particularly blunt after they were crunched by the Crows in last year’s preliminary final loss.
He said much hard work lay ahead to get back to the pointy end of the season. “I hope no one associated with Geelong falls into the trap of thinking that we were close again and we just have to improve a little bit to go the next step,” Scott said.
“The cold, hard reality is that we have to go back to the start.
“There are some really good football teams with a lot of talent that never made the eight this year, whom I suspect will get better.”
Melbourne, included.
The Demons coach wants this team to be a hard and ruthless unit, which stepped over the line several times in the ill-discipline stakes last year.
Jordan Lewis whacked Patrick Cripps in the face, Tom Bugg punched Callum Mills and Garry Lyon’s boy, Oliver, snapped at a fan in the stands.
It’s a fine line, but Melbourne assistant coach Brendan McCartney, who was a key plank in the Cats’ flag era, provided an insight into the young Dees’ progress last year. After 10 years out of finals, they’re primed.
“Melbourne is in a very good place and the future is there to be taken, really,” McCartney said. “They keep doing what they have been doing, at some stage a great opportunity is going to look them in the eye.”
And he sees some similar traits between the Dees now and the Cats back then.
“It’s an incredibly exciting group. They are really good young men. They are just so competitive and we are just about to get to the stage where they are really competitive with each other and the really good teams that I have seen and been associated with, the midfielders’ training is more intense than a game. When you have to start yelling at them to stop hitting each other, seriously, then you know you are on your way.
“Or you have got to stop training and say, ‘Hey boys, that’s enough, the intensity is there, we don’t need any more, save it for the weekend’.
“They are good kids, they are learning really quickly and they were all drafted for a reason because of the talent they bring and the competitive characters.
“The competitor has many different faces, many different hats. But they are all driven kids who want to make the club great.”
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