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Fox Footy Jury: Is Carlton or St Kilda closer to winning an AFL premiership?

They both finished in the bottom-five on the ladder last season and have each played finals only once in the past seven years. So which team is closer to a premiership — Carlton or St Kilda? We ask a panel of Fox Footy experts.

Brownlow medallist Gerard Healy thinks David Teague’s Carlton side is well placed if it can bolster its midfield and ruck stocks. Picture: Michael Willson/Getty Images
Brownlow medallist Gerard Healy thinks David Teague’s Carlton side is well placed if it can bolster its midfield and ruck stocks. Picture: Michael Willson/Getty Images

Carlton and St Kilda both finished in the bottom-five on the ladder last season and have each played finals only once in the past seven years.

The Blues have undergone a deep and lengthy rebuild while the Saints have opted to top-up their list with significant experienced talent in recent years.

So which team is closer to a premiership — Carlton or St Kilda?

We asked a panel of Fox Footy experts for their take, with some mixed views.

JONATHAN BROWN:

I would have to say Carlton. I think St Kilda will go better this year from a ladder point of view but I think the top-end of Carlton looks a lot brighter for the future. When you’re looking at winning premierships you are looking at the top-end talent that you’ve got on your list and I have to say Carlton wins that battle. I think they’ve done a pretty good job with their rebuild. They’ve gone down the path of recruiting key position players and key position players take time to develop but it’s important because if you can build that spine it gives you good longevity. If they can get Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow going, I think their key defenders are pretty strong. It’s just can they support Patrick Cripps with enough support in the midfield? But their bones to me allows them to go higher than St Kilda. I think Carlton will start to hit their sweet-spot from 2022 onwards.

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Brisbane great Jonathan Brown believes Carlton has a strong spine, including key forward Charlie Curnow. Picture: Quinn Rooney/Getty Images
Brisbane great Jonathan Brown believes Carlton has a strong spine, including key forward Charlie Curnow. Picture: Quinn Rooney/Getty Images

MATTHEW PAVLICH:

I think Carlton’s younger players and the talent they’ve got through the draft the last few years is superior to St Kilda. So I think longer-term Carlton is better off. But given what the Saints’ strategy has been the last couple of years getting in the likes of Dan Hannebery, Brad Hill, Zak Jones, Dougal Howard and Paddy Ryder, I think their list is a bit more robust to have a go at challenging now. So I think they’re closer than Carlton right now. If you look at the Richmond model a couple of years ago where they brought in the likes of Dion Prestia, Toby Nankervis and Josh Caddy, people at the time were questioning whether it was the right move to go the experienced players. Only the Saints’ hierarchy know if they’ve done the right thing getting these players in. On the surface it’s a bold move going to all these older experienced players and trying to make it work, but I can understand what they’re trying to do.

GERARD HEALY:

The Blues. They’re taking the slow path and the constant build and they’ve still got a really good trade hand coming up in the next couple of years. They’ve got some serious magnets in place. They need to keep working big time on their midfield, including ruck stocks. But I think they will be rewarded in time for their patience. It’s fair to say it will be exciting to see what the Saints’ approach does and you’d expect them to have a significant lift over the next year or two. But the concern is they’ve got one pick in the top-50 in the next two years. So the only way they’re going to now bolster their chances is through free agency. If they can pull a trick or two there then they may jump up and give themselves a chance. But the one thing they would want to avoid is getting stuck in that middle clump of teams, one or two legs away from being a genuine contender. They’ve recruited for now but they’re going to have to pull a couple of masterstrokes to find another level once this level has played out. 

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Originally published as Fox Footy Jury: Is Carlton or St Kilda closer to winning an AFL premiership?

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Original URL: https://www.themercury.com.au/sport/afl/fox-footy-jury-is-carlton-or-st-kilda-closer-to-winning-an-afl-premiership/news-story/3fb5af98183fd6836f367b2cedb941ac