Fact or Fiction: The big AFL pre-season calls rated
Hot takes have been coming in thick and fast after pre-season matches – but are they fact or fiction? We tackle the burning questions ahead of opening round. HAVE YOUR SAY.
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Big statements get made on the back of AFL pre-season matches, some of which are over the top and overs which might have more substance to them.
We’ve played a little bit of ‘Fact of Fiction’ on 11 big calls after what has transpired over the past week.
CARLTON CAN’T MAKE FINALS
Fiction
We wonder if Nathan Buckley is having second thoughts after declaring the Blues had too many “grinders and battlers” on their list to play finals this year. Michael Voss’ side suffered an elimination final loss to eventual premier Brisbane Lions last year, but will vying to contend deep into September this season.
Buckley might have a point about some of the Blues’ bottom-six players, but the spine of the side is pretty stacked and there were good signs shown in a 58-point win over 2024 semi-finalist Greater Western Sydney. If emerging ruckman Tom De Koning can realise his full potential this year, look out.
ST KILDA’S WORRIES EXTEND BEYOND INJURIES
Fact
New recruiting boss Simon Dalrymple already looks to be finding some gems, including midfielder Hugh Boxshall who found his way to Moorabbin at pick 45 in last year’s national draft. However, there are still some long-running holes on the list and a lack of genuine stars. Against Port Adelaide on Saturday, no one stepped up to try and stop the rot in a sloppy first half. Max King’s return from a knee issue will help straighten the forward line, while Rowan Marshall (pelvis) and Jack Sinclair (hamstring) are also key senior players that the Saints can ill-afford to be without. But the loss of key defender Josh Battle over the off-season can’t be understated, with the Power having picked apart an inexperienced and undersized backline.
THERE’S MORE INJURIES THIS PRE-SEASON
Unsure
We would need the AFL to hand over some historical data to answer definitely. The feeling is there has been more injuries, but is that just because they have been to some of the game’s biggest stars rather than lesser lights?
Having the likes of Marcus Bontempelli (calf) and Errol Gulden (ankle) miss the early part of the regular season after injuries during official pre-season matches is certainly not ideal. But in a gruelling contact sport where we demand so much of players, some injuries are largely unavoidable.
DAICOS DESERVES BROWNLOW FAVOURITISM
Fact
After polling 38 votes to finish second to Patrick Cripps (45 votes) in last year’s count, Collingwood star Nick Daicos is a short-priced favourite to claim the 2025 Brownlow Medal. After what he showed in a pre-season win over Richmond, you’d be brave to back against him. Daicos is the most talented and impressive, inspirational player in the game and he ran rings around his Tigers opponents, brushing off any concerns about a minor plantar fasciitis issue he was managing earlier in pre-season. Daicos recorded a game-high 153 SuperCoach ranking points despite playing only 59 per cent game time. The Pies opted not to take any risks with him, pulling Daicos from the game during the third quarter. A joy to watch, he looks set for another huge season ahead.
RICHMOND WILL WIN THE WOODEN SPOON
Fact
It is going to be a long year for the Tigers, who will be handed plenty of 10-plus goal beltings this season. It was a bare-bones team of kids which Richmond rolled out in its pre-season clash with Collingwood and there is not a lot of experience to add back in after the list was stripped back over the off-season for a deep rebuild.
Fans will be searching for signs of development among the kids, rather than expecting wins in 2025. Given fellow 2024 stragglers West Coast and North Melbourne are more advanced and appear to be on the up, Adem Yze’s side looks a lock to claim back-to-back wooden spoons for the first time in the club’s history. That would deliver another No. 1 draft pick, while the should get a second top talent given they also hold the Kangaroos’ first-round pick. Nail some more selections and they could be challenging again by 2030.
BRISBANE LACKS FIREPOWER WITHOUT DANIHER
Fiction
The big question over the reigning premiers’ ability to go back-to-back has been how they will cover the retirement of Joe Daniher. The key forward kicked 58 goals last year – almost 16 per cent of his side’s total – and was structurally so important as the Lions’ primary target inside-50. Ty Gallop and Sam Day were trailed in the Daniher role against Adelaide to little effect, but others stepped up. The Lions kicked 13 goals through 10 individual goalkickers against the Crows – and that was without any contributions from Charlie Cameron, Cam Rayner, Logan Morris or Lincoln McCarthy. Talk about having plenty of avenues to goal.
CADDY AND KAKO CAN LIFT ESSENDON THIS YEAR
Fact
Long-suffering Essendon fans have been looking for something to excite them in recent years and they now have it in the form of two young forwards. Nate Caddy and Isaac Kako are former schoolmates who are ready to shine together on the big stage this year. The Bombers might not be good enough to make finals this season, but these two teenagers are likely to play key roles in winning their side more than a few games.
Caddy has improved his fitness out of sight and Kako is exactly what the Bombers have been crying out for as a high-pressure and electrifying small forward. The pair kicked seven goals between them from limited opportunities against Geelong in what is expected to be a sign of things to come.
THE BULLDOGS CAN’T WIN WITHOUT BONT
Fiction
There’s no doubt that captain Marcus Bontempelli is the Western Bulldogs’ MVP, but his calf injury which will see him miss the first month of the season cannot be used as an excuse for a side which needs to get off to a good start. The Bulldogs have played catch-up over the past three years, including making a 3-5 start to last season.
If they are serious about challenging for a flag this year – which they should be – they can’t let that happen again. Bontempelli has missed just one game across the past six seasons – which the Bulldogs did lose. But Luke Beveridge’s side worked its way to an 11-point win over Hawthorn in its pre-season clash after Bontempelli came off with the injury in the opening quarter. The Dogs still have ample talent to rack up some early wins in his absence.
COLLINGWOOD IS SET FOR A BIG BOUNCE-BACK
Fact
It is pretty clear that the Magpies have gone all chips in on 2025 as they search for a second premiership in three seasons. Last year didn’t go to plan for a number of reasons, but early indications are that Craig McRae’s side will be one of the teams to beat this season. Recruits Dan Houston and Tim Membrey are already shaping as very clever additions, while veterans Scott Pendlebury and Steele Sidebottom are showing they still have a bit left in the tank. Josh Daicos’ move to halfback looks a winner, along with Patrick Lipinski’s shift to a wing and Reef McInnes’ move to defence. Key forward and back-up ruck Dan McStay is a virtual recruit after missing most of last year with an ACL, while there is increasing pressure on spots around the ground. If Collingwood can just get Jordan De Goey fit and firing, it could be another very successful year.
PRE-SEASON RESULTS DON’T MATTER
Fiction
Sometimes we can read a little too much into pre-season results, but the smiles on the faces of West Coast players and fans showed that a win is a win – no matter when it comes. It has been a tough past three years for the Eagles, who have triumphed in just 10 of 68 home-and-away games over that period.
But recruit Liam Baker’s 55m bomb with less than three minutes to play on Saturday helped seal a two-point win over North Melbourne that should provide a little shot of confidence for new coach Andrew McQualter and his side.
PORT COULD SEND OFF KEN IN STYLE
Fact
Some have tipped Port Adelaide to be sliders this season, but it certainly doesn’t look to be all doom and gloom at this early stage of the year. This is a team which has finished top-four in each of the past two seasons and boasts arguably the competition’s best onball brigade. There was reason for plenty of optimism in a 44-point win over St Kilda on Saturday, in which star midfielders Connor Rozee, Jason Horne-Francis and Ollie Wines led the way.
Jeremy Finlayson looked a natural in a new role in defence, forward-line recruits Jack Lukosius and Joe Richards will make a difference, Sam Powell-Pepper is fit and firing again after most of his 2024 campaign was wiped out with an ACL and youngsters Logan Evans and Ollie Lord are showing good signs of development. We’re not saying the Power are going to win the flag, but if they can finish top-four again in Ken Hinkley’s final season as coach then anything could happen.
Originally published as Fact or Fiction: The big AFL pre-season calls rated
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