Contender or finals pretender? The truth about the 2025 Western Bulldogs

With arguably the best one-two punch in the competition, on paper the Bulldogs are the best team in it. Most of the data says the same. But some numbers point to a completely different outcome.

Marcus Bontempelli is, arguably, the best player in the competition. Sam Darcy is, arguably, the best key forward in the competition. Ed Richards is, arguably, on track to win his first All Australian blazer, Bailey Dale maybe his second.

Tom Liberatore is as competitive and combative as anyone playing the game, Tim English was the All Australian ruckman a couple of years ago who is getting back to his best, Rory Lobb has been a revelation since going back, and Joel Freijah looks like a 200 game player.

The Dogs are an $8, 4th favourite to win the Premiership.

But if it was not for the anomaly in the fixture, with the 9th placed Gold Coast Suns having played one less game than everyone else, the Dogs may not even be in the 8.

Yes, it’s that kind of year.

Sam Darcy in full flight against the Saints. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos

The one stat that they know will be constantly thrown in their faces as we attempt to isolate those capable of going to the final couple of weeks of the season is the fact that they have played against six top-eight sides and managed to beat just one of them – the Giants back in Round 7 by 32 points.

The Bulldogs will hate having this brought up every time their credentials are questioned, but it is a reality that they can’t escape, and one that can only be rectified by beating top-eight contenders.

Collingwood defeated them by six, Freo by 16 and the Lions by 21, all in the first five weeks of the season.

Significantly, there was no Bontempelli during this period and the general consensus was they had done OK to hold things together. He returned for the St Kilda game, which coincided with the phenom that is Sam Darcy hurting his knee. Darcy was not to return until Round 13.

So, in effect, the Dogs have only had the best player in the competition combined with the best key forward in the competition for the entirety of a match on just two occasions.

The first time they beat St Kilda by 72 points, with Bontempelli having a modest 14 possessions, opposed to Marcus Windhager. Darcy returned ominously, kicking 3.2 and taking nine marks.

The following week, the unfortunate Tigers were the first team to be on the receiving end of what might just be the most devastating one-two punch in the competition. Bontempelli racked up a lazy 36 possessions, kicked three goals and had seven clearances. Darcy, in just his second game back from a six-game lay off bagged five goals, had 19 touches and took eight marks.

With nine games of the season to play, the prospect of Bontempelli and Darcy leading the charge has the Bulldog faithful daring to dream. They are just that good.

And they will have ample opportunity to establish their bona fides as a team, with games against the second placed Lions, fourth placed Crows, sixth placed Dockers and seventh placed Giants on the run home.

So, are they a legitimate chance to get on a roll and charge into the finals with a head of steam akin to 2016, where they rode a wave of momentum that carried them all the way to an emotion charged Premiership?

Or are you in the school of thought that subscribes to the theory that they have never finished in the top four under Beveridge and, while they look formidable and ominous against the non-contenders, they will continue to come up short when it matters most?

From an attacking point of view, the case to be made is almost flawless. They are the highest scoring team we have seen since the Adelaide Crows of 2017. They are number one in the competition for points scored, they move the ball from defensive 50 to inside 50 better than anyone else in the competition, they are number one for time in forward half and number one for scoring chains.

This is an unbelievable nod to their ability to move the football. They are connected, precise by foot and creative by hand. There has not been a better ball movement team since the Geelong team of 2013.

When you add their clearance game to the equation, you start to get the picture that this is a very serious football side.

They are the number one clearance differential team in the game. This, in itself, is imposing, but what you do with the clearance won is what separates teams.

This Western Bulldog side is the highest scoring team from clearance since these numbers were recorded, back in 1999.

The next three highest scoring teams were the Hawthorn sides of 2012, 2013 and 2014, which netted the Hawks two flags and a runners-up. That is rare company to be keeping.

When we are mapping the premiers of the past, these scoring numbers put the Dogs right where they need to be, and provide unbelievable optimism for the weeks ahead, with a fit and firing Bont and Darcy, a relentless Richards supported by Libba, and Freijah and an emerging Davidson getting on the end of the English ruck work.

It is the defensive side of the game that gives some cause for concern. As has been the case for the past 19 years, every premiership team has been in the top six for points conceded. Right now the Dogs are ninth.

The past 10 premiers have also been in the top six for points against from turnover.

Again, the Dogs are ninth.

It is not a disaster, and there is time for them to tighten things up to the point that they get themselves back into that top six category – but there is work to be done.

More worrying Dogs fans, and this gives weight to those who have doubts about their credentials against the contenders, is their ability to defend against top nine teams as opposed to bottom nine.

They give up the fewest points in the competition against bottom nine teams but are ranked 12th when it comes to top nine. They concede the second fewest points from turnover against bottom nine teams but, again, are 12th v top nine sides. They are 10th for scores against going inside 50 versus bottom nine – which is too high – and it pushes out to 15th against the top nine sides.

It has been the concern for the Dogs over the years, and it is again their greatest challenge.

Liam Jones has been the cornerstone of their defence for a number of years, but he has spent long periods of time either injured or in the VFL, pointing to a changing of the guard in the back six for the Dogs.

Lobb now assumes that position of seniority, and he will be supported by James O’Donnell, with Buku Khamis an option if needed.

Jones’ ability to overcome injury and form may be pivotal to the success or otherwise of this team.

The likely forward setups they will encounter in September, if indeed they get there, include the likes of Shannon Neale, Patrick Dangerfield and Jeremy Cameron, or Brody Mihocek, Dan McStay and Tim Membrey or Josh Treacy, Jye Amiss and Luke Jackson.

Jones at his best helps enormously – but could they be stretched without him? Time will tell and O’Donnell gets better with every outing.

The Dogs tick plenty of boxes for those that are bullish about their chances of getting to the second last week of the finals.
The nagging concern is their ability to defend against the big boys.
There is time to get it sorted and if they qualify, maybe even with a double chance, then they are to be taken very seriously indeed.

Especially if the Bont and Darcy show is in full swing.

Originally published as Contender or finals pretender? The truth about the 2025 Western Bulldogs