Clayton Oliver’s future examined: The reduced price, what the Cats could offer, and the lurking Saints
Clayton Oliver would be looking at the Cats wondering what could have been, writes Jay Clark. Now, the Demon is at risk of falling by the wayside if he can’t find a suitor, but what would he cost?
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Clayton Oliver would look over the fence at what could have been.
The fresh start at Geelong. The chance for more premiership success. The renewal and resurrection of Bailey Smith.
There was a belief last year that Oliver was the missing link in the Cats’ premiership quest this season alongside Smith, but now he is in danger of falling by the wayside at the Demons in their push into a new era.
One of the best ballwinners in the game a few years ago has polled only one AFL Coaches Association vote, averaging 28 touches and seven clearances across seven matches in 2025.
The coaches’ trophy is an award he has won twice, but Oliver’s drop-off over the past 24 months is as steep as anyone’s in the game.
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And for this once blistering onballer, the slow walk towards what feels like another inevitable trade request has taken its toll on the player, as much as everyone at Melbourne has lauded his commitment and involvement over the past year.
Oliver, 27, is a much better teammate, the Demons all say, after some serious talks and guidance in recent years, and captain Max Gawn deserves much of the credit for helping keep his mate on track.
They play chess before games and on Monday night had a sauna together at Gawn’s house, the skipper said.
But the Melbourne Football Club is headed in a new direction under a new administration, after clearly acknowledging the game style and personnel which won the 2021 premiership would not win them another one.
There is a new president Steven Smith coming in, a new CEO Paul Guerra already appointed, and a clean slate wiped on the playing style under Goodwin.
And while the club is adamant Christian Petracca is staying, the door is clearly more open on Oliver and the prospect of off-loading his $1.2 million-a-year salary for a key forward in the exchange period.
Livewire Kysaiah Pickett also looks headed to Fremantle as part of a trade deal which could resemble Shai Bolton’s move from Richmond to the Dockers last year.
In the Bolton trade, Fremantle sent 10, 11 and 18 to Richmond for Bolton, while the Tigers sent 14 and a future third-round pick back to the Dockers.
In a nutshell, the deal boiled down to two first-round picks and Bolton and Pickett aren’t dissimilar, even though Melbourne interim president Brad Green told the Herald Sun the Demons want three first-rounders for Pickett.
It’s a touch overs, whether Pickett is contracted or not, and there are some in the game who think Fremantle’s Luke Jackson can still be tempted to return to Melbourne.
But as things stand, the Dees would be lucky to get even one first-rounder for Oliver, as that ship may have sailed – unfortunately for everyone – last year.
It is no secret that when Oliver travelled down the highway to Rhys Stanley’s farm last year after Melbourne dangled him as trade bait, the midfielder saw, and wanted, a future down the coast.
But now he is stuck, to a degree, as harsh as it sounds.
Or at least he could be stuck, pending how hard Melbourne is prepared to keep him at the club for next season, and how much of his bumper wage the Demons would be willing to pay to send him to Geelong in return for a middling draft pick.
At the heart of any Oliver trade is an important sliding scale.
The more of his wage the Demons are willing to pay, the better the draft return they would expect from the Cats.
If the Demons don’t pay any of his seven-figure wage, the Cats would likely either reject the deal entirely, or offer up a late pick in the draft to absorb all of his money.
And the Cats might have the most disciplined pay structure in the game, meaning if Melbourne are at all interested in off-loading Oliver they will likely have to chip in several hundreds of thousands of dollars at least, like Collingwood did on Adam Treloar.
Remember the outrage when former Collingwood list boss Ned Guy clinched the Treloar deal with the Dogs in 2020, was effectively chased out of the club as a result, then watched on as the Magpies won the 2023 flag?
From train wreck to treasure chest, it was.
The salary cap recalibration at Collingwood involving Treloar and Brodie Grundy was one of the great list management success stories of recent times even though it was castigated at the time, and Melbourne is looking at a similar situation if Geelong remains a suitor for Oliver in the hunt to bolster their clearance powers.
The Cats have won only one clearance battle this season and were hammered again in that area in the first half in the win over Collingwood on Saturday night.
Which is why Geelong can otherwise take Hawthorn’s James Worpel, 26, as a free agent on a lesser wage at the end of the season, with much lesser risk.
Or Port Adelaide’s Zak Butters at the end of 2026. Matt Rowell is tipped to stay at Gold Coast after meeting with the Cats over summer.
Geelong recruiting legend Stephen Wells has loved the former Geelong Falcon Worpel from the days he was picking grapes and working at a local winery.
Tough, hardworking and reliable, Worpel is culturally a brilliant fit on and off the field for the Cats.
And after taking Smith and Tyson Stengle in recent years, there is a tipping point when it comes to off-field recruiting risk, even though the Cats are as open-minded as any club.
At this stage, Chris Scott’s men are not a suitor for Dogs’ spearhead Jamarra Ugle-Hagan.
The Hawks have not rushed ahead on a new Worpel deal, as they contemplate other moves, too, such as Eagles’ co-captain Oscar Allen and number one pick Harley Reid.
So while Worpel would fit at Geelong like a slipper on Cinderella, the Oliver proposition is much more complicated.
St Kilda is also on the outside of the situation, aware that Oliver is again in play, but for now the Saints have not thrown their hat into the ring.
They would love a midfielder with Oliver’s explosiveness and power, but he is not the same footballer that lifted the cup in 2021.
Melbourne coach Simon Goodwin told the Herald Sun in the pre-season Oliver would take time working back to top form, saying “we need to temper our expectations a little bit in terms of where he will be initially”.
The three-time all-Australian can be an elite user by hand, but his disposal by foot is hit and miss.
So, too, are his defensive efforts and two-way transition running, at times, as can often be the case with a lot of gun AFL midfielders.
Instead of Oliver to this point, the Saints have heavily targeted Carlton Tom De Koning, are confident of keeping Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, they like GWS Giants’ key defender Leek Aleer, circled Port’s Miles Bergman and are encouraged by the upside of young onball hard nuts Hugh Boxshall and Hugo Garcia.
De Koning has not yet made a call, but it is clear he has had his head turned not only by the $1.7 million-a-year offer, but also the growth on show at St Kilda.
At the centre of all the club’s moves is the need to prioritise the environment at Moorabbin under senior coach Ross Lyon.
So, while no call has yet been made, the Saints may pass on Oliver this time, too, which hurts Melbourne’s leverage if only one party, Geelong, is in the Oliver market.
And this year the ball magnet’s on-field impact has been modest at best.
But we know the magic the Cats can weave recycling players, and Smith is the ultimate example morphing from fringe midfielder at the Dogs to onball superstar at Geelong on the back of a knee reconstruction.
And if Saints’ recruit Jack Macrae can lead the competition for contested possessions as he does currently (129 for the season), the Oliver optimists are buying his stock on the cheap, confident the tough nut can play for five more years at least in line with his 2030 contract.
Back in the 2021 premiership campaign, Oliver’s burst from the middle and long kicks forward worked because the Demons had the height and capability to mark the aerial ball.
Ben Brown caught fire late kicking six goals in three finals matches, as part of one of the most underrated roles in the drought-breaking premiership, while Tom McDonald, Luke Jackson and Max Gawn, who kicked five goals in the preliminary final win over Geelong that year, gave the Demons key targets.
All that has changed over the past two seasons in attack as young forwards Daniel Turner and Jacob van Rooyen cut their teeth.
The dump kick at Melbourne is ineffective and out under the “new way” to play under Simon Goodwin. Precise ball use is king in 2025.
That hurts Oliver’s style and role, and he remains no certainty to stay in the senior side this year as first-year jet Harvey Langford’s growth continues.
He’s the future, clearly, Langford.
And the club has re-signed hard nut Jack Viney for four years, so he is locked in.
Oliver is the expendable one.
There is a real prospect Oliver may not keep his spot this year pending his form and it would be difficult for a four-time best-and-fairest winner to head out to suburban grounds in the VFL in his prime.
If that does happen this year, the shoulders will slump and trade regret will hit overdrive as the Cats hunt another top-four berth.
He is managed by Paul Connors and Nick Gieschen, who have a powerful record of getting their players where they want them to go.
But there is a saving grace in a sense for the Demons, because they already have Oliver’s replacement in tow in Langford.
Demons’ recruiter Jason Taylor is universally regarded as a man who has thrown as many bullseyes as any talent spotter in the caper, whether it’s first-round or fourth-round.
The club hasn’t really missed in a big way in the draft stakes since key forward Sam Weideman who was taken pick nine in 2015.
And raging bull Langford looks a beauty.
Oliver missed the trip west to play West Coast on Saturday night as part of a mental health break, but is expected to return to training on Tuesday and play this weekend after a breather.
The mature way the Demons and Oliver have handled his time off last week is to their credit.
But Oliver’s future is clouded, and there is a chance, too, he is stuck now.
Goodwin and Gawn have continued to wrap their arms around Oliver, who will go down as one of the club’s greatest midfielders.
But in this year of “healing” at Melbourne, it seems impossible to hold a player at the club against his will if everyone has indeed given it their best shot.
There are some wounds that are still open on this front, and if it hasn’t worked this season, it seems even less likely to succeed next year.
At least this trade period, the clubs will have had time to thrash out a deal, and that work will ramp up now, if in fact Geelong still wants him.
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