Champion Data’s 2025 AFL Brownlow Medal Predictor

The 2025 Brownlow Medal count is just days away and Champion Data has taken in over a decade of numbers to predict the top 20. And the biggest challenger to Nick Daicos has been revealed.

Greater Western Sydney onballer Tom Green looms as a genuine Brownlow Medal smoky according to an analysis of past winners which all but puts a line through highly-rated contenders Bailey Smith and Jordan Dawson.

Green — who some bookmakers have listed at odds of $67 to win footy’s most prestigious individual award — sits fourth on Champion Data’s Brownlow Medal predictor.

However, a deeper dive into the past 15 winners of the medal shows the midfield bull could finish even higher than that on the leaderboard next Monday night.

CODE SPORTS BROWNLOW PREDICTOR: EVERY VOTE, EVERY GAME

Tom Green could be the ultimate Brownlow smokey. Picture: Matt King/AFL Photos/via Getty Images

Since 2010, 14 of the 15 Brownlow Medal winners have ranked top-five in the AFL for contested possessions, 12 of 15 have ranked top-five for clearances, 14 of 15 have ranked top-10 for groundball gets and 10 or 15 have been top-10 for disposals.

Every winner over that period has been rated top-20 for player ratings, with 11 of them rating top-10.

The analysis shows that umpires have traditionally loved players who not only rack up possessions but also win their own footy – which bodes well for Green.

The 24-year-old ranked No. 1 in the AFL this year for contested possessions, No. 3 for clearances, No. 1 for groundball gets, No. 5 for disposals and No. 7 for player ratings — with those being five of the top seven key statistical categories which correlate with past winners.

NCA. MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA. September 15th, 2025 . Geelong training at GMHBA Stadium. Bailey Smith of the Cats . Picture: Michael Klein

ADELAIDE, AUSTRALIA - SEPTEMBER 12: Jordan Dawson of the Crows leads his team off after the loss during the AFL First Semi Final match between the Adelaide Crows and the Hawthorn Hawks at Adelaide Oval on September 12, 2025 in Adelaide, Australia. (Photo by Sarah Reed/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

By comparison, Geelong midfielder Smith rated No. 8 in the competition for overall disposals this year but was No. 38 for contested possessions, No. 24 for clearances, No. 18 for groundball gets and No. 31 for player ratings.

Adelaide captain Dawson ticked the box for player ratings as he finished No. 16 in the AFL for that measure, but fell short when it came to contested possessions (No. 34), clearances (No. 37), groundball gets (No. 51) and disposals (No. 35).

Champion Data’s Brownlow Tracker has Collingwood midfielder Nick Daicos winning the award with 34.22 votes, ahead of Gold Coast Suns hard-nut Matt Rowell (26.47 votes).

Dawson (24.28 votes), Green (23.11 votes) and Suns captain Noah Anderson (23.04 votes) round out the top-five.

Daicos is as low as a $2.50 favourite with bookmakers, with his rankings for contested possession (No. 27) and groundball gets (No. 27) his only downfalls.

Daicos finished second behind Carlton’s Patrick Cripps in last year’s count, but his average contested possessions dropped from 13.9 to 10.6 this season and his groundball gets slipped from 8.7 to 6.8.

CHAMPION DATA’S BROWNLOW LEADERBOARD AND CLUB-BY-BY GUIDE

- Lachlan McKirdy

Collingwood superstar Nick Daicos is on track to comfortably claim his first Brownlow Medal, according to Champion Data’s prediction of this season’s votes.

Daicos is one of the heavy favourites ahead of next Monday’s countdown, but according to Champion Data, he is set to claim the Charlie by nearly eight votes over Gold Coast Suns clearance beast, Matt Rowell.

The Champion Data prediction takes in over a decade of numbers, including key in-game states, while also accounting for the final result and each player’s previous polling history.

Champion Data predicts Nick Daicos to win the Brownlow. Picture: Getty Images

And all signs point to a black and white night with Daicos leading the way atop the field.

The rest of the top 20 leaderboard suggests the days of the Brownlow being a midfielders’ medal are set to continue, with the majority of players found around the centre bounce.

Coleman Medallist, Jeremy Cameron, is the lone forward to break the top 20, while Melbourne captain Max Gawn also snuck in on the back of yet another All-Australian calibre season.

Geelong has the highest representation of players in the top 10 with Cameron, Bailey Smith and Max Holmes all sharing the votes, which could cost one of them from going on to win the award. Meanwhile, Rowell and Noah Anderson both finished inside the top five after Gold Coast’s incredible season.

GWS midfield star Tom Green was also a surprise name, finishing fourth in Champion Data’s rankings following the best season of his career.

Originally published as Champion Data’s 2025 AFL Brownlow Medal Predictor