Carlton’s 2025 AFL list analysed: Trade targets, key players, predicted finish and more
It’s not quite 2025 or never for Michael Voss and Carlton — but it might be close. JON RALPH examines the Blues’ list and whether the club is ready to end one of the AFL’s longest premiership droughts.
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By the end of a 2024 season that for Carlton fans was a total and utter waste, it was literally Patrick Cripps or bust.
The only tally more ridiculous than Cripps’ 45 votes in the Brownlow Medal was the number on the Blues’ weekly injury list updates. Often it would reach the high teens as the phenomenal Cripps went to war to try to save Carlton’s season.
He failed, but not through extraordinary effort. He still polled three votes in that brilliant round 24 clash against St Kilda as Jack Higgins stole the match in the final moments.
Then the Blues fell into the finals backwards after Port Adelaide defeated Fremantle later that weekend.
But as Voss risked many of his injured troops, Carlton copped their right whack a week later in the elimination final against eventual premiers Brisbane.
That injury toll to so many prime-movers, including Charlie Curnow and Tom De Koning, meant the Blues wasted a 5-1 start to the season that had them at 11-4 mid-year before losing seven of the final nine games.
The Lions’ premiership victory three weeks after the Blues bowed out is the blueprint for Michael Voss – keep knocking your head up against the brick wall until it collapses.
Carlton has the talent, it believes it has the game-plan and now it needs the player availability to see if it is capable of greatness or just a deep finals run.
Out goes Andrew Russell — so brilliant in the Hawks era, but unable to replicate that feat — as ex-Sydney fitness guru Rob Inness arrives at Ikon Park.
There was so much second-guessing by the end. Were the players fit enough given the understandable reluctance to overtrain injury-prone players? Were the likes of Jack Martin and Adam Cerra rushed back from soft-tissue concerns too early?
It means that the performance of Inness might be even more important than the young draftee the club calls out at pick No.3 next Thursday night.
With Cripps in his prime and Harry McKay (26), Charlie Curnow (27) and Jacob Weitering (26) entering theirs the time is now. Excuse time is over.
LIST HOLES
Few clubs in the AFL have the talent across every line that Carlton possesses.
Two freak forwards in McKay and Curnow, an emerging star ruckman De Koning (plus ideal backup in Marc Pittonet), a brilliant full-back Weitering and a midfield boasting Cripps, Sam Walsh, Adam Cerra and George Hewett.
Plus Sam Docherty and Jack Silvagni as virtual recruits.
But the Blues tipped their hand when they ignored Dan Houston to secure the top three-pick that will get them another 12-year midfielder.
Carlton still ranked fourth in points from clearances and second in contested possession differential, but it needs another elite-running onballer.
Walsh finished third in the best-and-fairest and Hewett fifth, but Cerra is now officially injury prone, Ollie Hollands averaged only 14 possessions and Matt Kennedy is gone.
Blues fans will believe Hollands can improve in his third year and will hope Matt Cottrell’s return will increase the outside speed given they know how important he is to their midfield mix.
But for Carlton to move past dual All-Australian Houston to draft another midfielder tells you exactly what they believe their missing link is.
Injury prone tall back Caleb Marchbank is gone, so behind Weitering is Mitch McGovern, Brodie Kemp (retained despite St Kilda’s interest) and Lewis Young, with GWS Giants veteran Nick Haynes acquired as an intercept marker.
Carlton plans to trial Jack Silvagni in defence over summer and will also push Brodie Kemp forward after a successful late-season trial and believes that Young’s best game for the year was in the Lions final.
So there are options for Carlton.
But the very best clubs have two elite tall defenders – Steven May and Jake Lever (Melbourne), Harris Andrews and Jack Payne (Brisbane), Jeremy Howe and Darcy Moore (Collingwood).
So one of Haynes, Kemp, Silvagni or Young needs a big year to help Weitering.
TRADE PERIOD
RATING: 8/10
It wasn’t what Blues fans expected, but the trade period was spectacular. With one huge caveat. The Blues pulled a swiftie by acquiring Hawthorn’s pick 14 for a future first and second-rounder then pivoted.
Instead of using 12 and 14 for a dash at Houston, they traded into the Eagles’ pick 3 (throwing Matt Owies into the trade).
The fans loved it, but what it all hangs on is them securing a Finn O’Sullivan type who actually makes the instant impact the Blues hope.
In such an even draft there is the chance the 12th best player might eventually eclipse the player taken third.
🕯 Manifesting life in Navy Blue 🕯
— Carlton FC (@CarltonFC) October 5, 2024
We’re taking this as a great sign! A message from Nick Haynes to the wider Carlton family. pic.twitter.com/gvH0EKTBHu
Carlton firmly believed the speed and class it needed in a midfielder was only going to be secured at the pointy end of the draft.
The Blues secured Haynes as a free agent, were happy to let go Jack Martin as a failed experiment, and off-loaded Kennedy to the Western Bulldogs.
So now after a flurry of moves, the proof will be in the execution of them and the roles they hand to players who must step up in the absence of those jettisoned. Because Kennedy is likely to play very good football at the Dogs and Owies will kick another 30-plus goals for the Eagles.
DRAFT STRATEGY
Finn O’Sullivan is a metres-gained player.
The relative of Sam Walsh isn’t afraid to take the game on with a baulk or a running bounce as he tries to cast his eyes forward rather than sideways.
Carlton clearly has a strong interest in the Oakleigh Chargers’ midfielder given his capacity to add an outside dimension to their contest-heavy midfield.
But while he is a person of interest, Carlton believes there are five mids who all have a point of difference to their current midfield and will all serve their purpose equally well.
By pick three two of them will be gone and they have will have the option to pick from three of them.
The question is whether the top end of the draft will spit out handy 200-game players or best-and-fairest winners or All-Australians of the calibre of Cripps and Walsh.
Time will tell, but the Blues believe in the top end.
From there, they have picks 38, 63, 68, 69, 71 and are confident those picks will be enough to secure Ben and Lucas Camporeale, sons of Scott.
Carlton will take four picks in the draft, then keep three spots open for a rookie and two summer train-on players.
If Lucas Camporeale is not taken by their last pick they have committed to securing him for their primary list.
7.0 from Liam McMahon! #VFLpic.twitter.com/wFXdoiWs5J
— Carlton Blues Fans (@CarltonFCBlues) August 10, 2024
As the year has gone on the depth in the draft rather than their own deficiencies has pushed them down the draft order.
So there is a chance the Blues could get a pair of value father-sons given clubs aren’t always desperate to bid on rival NGA or father-son prospects when they aren’t at the pointy end of the draft order
Ex-Hawk Denver Grainger-Barras will train with the Blues over summer but won’t be offered a rookie spot, while delisted defender Sam Durdin and VFL forward Liam McMahon will also train with the club for one of those two summer rookie spots.
AFL PLAYER RATINGS
In 2024 Patrick Cripps was second, Marc Pittonet a surprise 29th, De Koning 31st, Walsh 38th, Hewett 80th, Curnow 88th. A left-field sign of the Blues’ 2025 resurgence? Both Hollands boys in the top 100.
PREMIERSHIP WINDOW
Come on down, Carlton. Only Haynes and Nic Newman are over 31, with Adam Saad the next oldest on the list at 30 and three months.
Behind that the Blues have 16 players in the 25-30 year age bracket who all have 3-5 outstanding years ahead. So while they have squandered chances these past two seasons, their time is now. The window isn’t slamming shut any time soon.
SALARY CAP ROOM
Carlton admits it is top-heavy with its salary cap given all of Weitering, Walsh, Cripps, Curnow and McKay are on somewhere near $1 million a year and Zac Williams has two more seasons left on a deal not far short of that.
The club could have made room for Houston, but it would have taken some fancy footwork.
Make no mistake, rivals will come hard for De Koning given his free agency and while he will surely stay, it might cost the Blues a small fortune.
He has only kicked 30 goals in 78 games but as he showed in that two-goal final against Melbourne from the ruck in 2023, he is capable of so much more.
With Cerra also out of contract (and having taken much less than he could have when he crossed from Fremantle), list boss Nick Austin is in for another juggling act.
TRADE TARGETS 2025
Carlton has given up its future first and second-rounders but it secured Brisbane’s second-rounder to satisfy the AFL’s requirements.
It could use picks two years into the future under new rules if it wanted to get really active in next year’s trade space but this will be a year for consolidation and retention.
Carlton has shown it is prepared to make canny investments in undervalued talent, securing former top-10 pick Elijah Hollands in a smart trade.
But don’t expect the Blues to be throwing around the cash this year.
TRADE BAIT
The Blues were prepared to trade Brodie Kemp if St Kilda came up with a 2024 second-rounder but it never happened, so his progress will be one to watch next year. Carlton has Saad, Cerra, De Koning, Hewett, Newman, McGovern and Motlop out of contract next year.
It’s a contract logjam.
Originally published as Carlton’s 2025 AFL list analysed: Trade targets, key players, predicted finish and more
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