Cap Space: Jay Clark looks at St Kilda’s list, Stephen Silvagni’s options and the big calls facing the club
Not only is there a distinct lack of top-end talent at St Kilda, but the salary cap is also fuller than what it should be. Where does it leave the Saints? Read this week’s Cap Space.
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Some list managers reach for the small scissors at season’s end.
Others opt for the full-length hedge trimmers.
New St Kilda list boss Stephen Silvagni will be thinking about the chainsaw.
When the Saints made the shock decision to punt coach Brett Ratten last year, there was a not-so-subtle acknowledgment that the club’s list was stuck in no-man’s land.
The salary cap was full-to-the-brim and there was nowhere near enough top-end or promising young developing talent to challenge for a top-four berth.
So, after winning only three of their last 11 games last year, the Saints’ powerbrokers went to the freezer, reached for the tub of Neapolitan ice cream and realised there was only strawberry flavour left.
That is not to say there aren’t a lot of capable players at Moorabbin. There are.
The thing about the Saints’ list is that more than 30-odd players could play next week and be fine.
But that is the approach which has elevated the club from 16th in 2018 to only 10th under Ratten in 2022.
They won one final in that time (over Western Bulldogs in 2020 despite having two less scoring shots than the Dogs), before it dawned on the club last season.
It has a mediocre list.
The very deliberate top-up strategy had not worked.
President Andrew Bassat said it himself in the club’s review findings when he declared St Kilda was guilty of “focusing impatiently on short-term outputs”.
Now, the question is not whether St Kilda needs to make changes.
The question is how hard do they go?
Does Silvagni bust out the chainsaw or not in six months’ time?
One of the club’s most respected figures, Nick Riewoldt, was forthright last year after participating in the club review, saying he would be “cutting and cutting pretty hard.”
“When you look at the young talent who are gonna form the elite core of this club for the next five to 10 years, there isn’t much there,” Riewoldt said.
Bassat said the club had to commit to a longer-term vision under Lyon “even if this does make the short-term more difficult for us”.
“We do need to improve our stock of top-end talent,” Bassat said.
Complicating matters, it is a considerably tough time to rebuild when the top-four teams have all got better entering 2023, leaving a decent-sized gap between the two ends of the ladder.
Geelong, Brisbane, Melbourne, Richmond, Western Bulldogs and Carlton all improved, at least on paper.
But the problems are two-fold for St Kilda.
Not only is there is a distinct lack of top-end talent, but the salary cap is also fuller than what it should be for a team which missed finals last year and is now in an ‘exploration phase’ under Lyon.
There are too many mid-tier players on above average money.
When they brought in wave after wave of mature-age players in recent years the Saints had to overpay in some cases, as the club is yet to establish itself as a true destination club for the top-end talent.
And perhaps the club thought it was closer to a premiership than reality would suggest?
The Saints have always been goers under Ratten, but where is the class? The firepower? The difference-makers?
The previous list management strategy “to drive greater competitiveness through trades” lifted the club out of the bottom-four in 2018, but has now officially made way for an “updated plan” amid sweeping personnel change through the football department.
Unless Lyon can work some sort of miracle on the field, the list will need a considerable recalibration at the end of the year to re-align the cap, inject some more A-Graders and build on a new core to help break the longest premiership drought in the game.
But that is four or five years away.
CRUNCH YEAR
That is why Silvagni and Lyon will take the season to make key decisions on which players not only take the club forward on the field at a justifiable price, but also who can help drive standards off the field.
Over the next six months in the club’s 150th season, some tough calls will have to be made by Silvagni. Who can take this success-starved club forward?
There are some quality pieces to work with, and Marcus Windhager, Mitch Owens, Mattaes Phillipou, Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera and Max King represent the next generation of Saints’ stars to help take the baton from Jack Billings, Seb Ross, Jimmy Webster, Daniel McKenzie and Co.
Billings, who was taken pick three ahead of Marcus Bontempelli in 2013, is entering his 10th season and has likely played his best football, finishing fourth (2019) and fifth (2017) in the best and fairest.
The Saints delisted number one pick Paddy McCartin amid his concussion issues after just 35 games, but he has since established himself as an All-Australian-calibre defender as part of a remarkable career revival at Sydney Swans.
Hard-nut utility Hunter Clark can deliver on his potential, linebreaker Wanganeen-Milera is the best kick at the club, and rookie picks Rowan Marshall and Jack Sinclair are crucial cornerstones.
Lyon will love Brad Crouch’s unwavering effort in the clinches and Jack Higgins and Dan Butler will have big roles to play cranking up the pressure in a small forward line early in 2023.
The captain Jack Steele is a dual All-Australian, and the heartbeat of the team. Jade Gresham provides power and polish in the engine room, and is always threatening forward, but St Kilda may have to fight hard to keep him as a free agent.
If Kysaiah Pickett shocks Melbourne with a trade request, (and the Demons aren’t expecting one) Gresham would be an ideal replacement target for the Dees.
So, there are some building blocks at Moorabbin, and Phillipou was open with recruiters last year about how he wants to become the best player in the game.
Essendon thought long and hard about taking him at pick five over Elijah Tsatas.
It will be a compelling journey, and Phillipou can produce some spine-tingling footy busting through packs midfield and forward.
But beyond the 2021-2022 draft hauls, there is a big black hole.
From 2018-20, King is the one hit and Jack Bytel has shown promise despite injury issues.
But to be blunt, St Kilda has paid a price for giving up on the draft as a club over that period.
It is unfair to pin that just on previous list boss James Gallagher, but rather everyone at the club who makes decisions in helping set the Saints’ direction.
Ultimately, the trajectory flat lined when Ratten was sacked with two years left on his contract after 11 wins in his final season in charge.
The Saints had made a mistake extending his contract in the first place, but the Saints identified in the review they needed a different style of leadership from its new coach. An uncompromising edge.
In 2017, they took hard nut Clark (pick seven) and rebounding defender Nick Coffield (eight) and the club is hopeful they can develop into top-line playmakers.
But the Saints considered trading Clark last year and Coffield is coming off a knee reconstruction. It is a big year for duo. A big year for a lot of players.
In 2018, the recycling trucks fired up as the club picked up Matthew Parker, Nick Hind, Hannebery, Robbie Young, Dean Kent, Ryan Abbott, Brad Hill, Howard, Ryder, Butler, Zak Jones, Tom Highmore, James Frawley, Shaun McKernan, Crouch and Higgins.
Ryder was excellent and among the most impactful ruckmen in the game at the Saints and Mason Wood has been a nice find, for free.
But nine of the 17 are gone and Hannebery and Hill cost the club a packet. North fought hard for Howard at the time, driving up his price.
It is unclear whether Jones is still in the Saints’ best 22.
TICK, TOCK
Chris Toce is not a household name, but the Saints’ recruiting manager has one of the biggest jobs in footy making sure the club nails its picks in the next few drafts.
That is how St Kilda can replenish the list and begin the upward climb, but it will require patience over the next few years.
The club will wonder which of its players who aren’t in its future plans will have any trade currency, and Silvagni will be ears open to any attractive offers at season’s end to help build their draft hand.
Is that Clark, Coffield, Billings or Ross?
Perhaps, North Melbourne is the best comparison when it cut 11 players in one swoop after winning only three games in 2020.
North Melbourne had the chance in 2018 to accelerate the rebuild but instead they went for a top-up method, too, which also backfired, adding Dom Tyson, Jared Polec and Jasper Pittard.
Brad Scott finished up as coach the following year.
At St Kilda in 2019, the club gave up picks 12 and 18 for Howard, Ryder and pick 10 in return. But 10 went to Fremantle for Brad Hill.
It means the Saints missed out on their chance to take young stars such as Pickett (pick 12), Will Day (13), Cody Weightman (15), Mitch Georgiades (18) and Sam De Koning (19), but it is easy in hindsight.
Higgins and Hannebery (who played 18 games in four years) effectively cost second-rounders.
THIS DRAFT
St Kilda will start the season without an established key forward in Round 1, after taking 19-year-old Anthony Caminiti under the supplemental selection period rules.
The Saints are among the long line of clubs assessing Carlton key forward-ruck Tom De Koning.
The gun tall is out of contract but he is not a free agent, meaning the Saints will have to give up something in a trade to land him, unless there is a Jack Martin-style pre-season draft move in mind.
Silvagni drafted De Koning to Carlton at pick 30 in 2017, but would be reluctant to give up an early single-figure pick for De Koning if the Saints finished in the bottom-four.
Gold Coast prodigy Ben King has long been on Graeme Allan’s wish-list, but the Suns would want the world in return if he ever requested a trade.
Allan remains at the club as strategy consultant. He is Silvagni’s right-hand man.
But for now, King says he is happy up north.
Preferably, the Saints will want to keep their early picks in this year and next year’s draft to build-out that nucleus of younger talent.
In 2016-17, Lyon’s rebuilding Dockers took Griffin Logue (pick eight), Sean Darcy (38), Brennan Cox (41) and Luke Ryan (66), followed by Andrew Brayshaw (two) and Adam Cerra (five), who was turned into key forward Jye Amiss (pick eight) when he moved to Carlton.
Two strong drafts helped turn the Dockers’ fortunes around.
But this is where free agency can also help the Saints attract some more top-liners such as GWS Giants’ tall Harry Himmelberg, without giving up a draft pick in a trade. Can he become star of the game?
The Saints have enough role players.
What they need as part of this fresh start under Lyon is more A-Graders.
Originally published as Cap Space: Jay Clark looks at St Kilda’s list, Stephen Silvagni’s options and the big calls facing the club
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