AFL trade news: Rory Lobb could be Melbourne’s solution to failed Brodie Grundy trade
As with every trade period, some deals will slide through early while others will drag on for two weeks. And there are at least two this year that sit in the latter category.
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There is a left-field solution to Melbourne’s Brodie Grundy trade bust.
The discount move for the former Collingwood superstar went in the bin when coach Simon Goodwin finally made the call to drop him two months out from finals.
It was a double-punch to the guts for an All-Australian ruckman.
Booted from Collingwood, and dumped by the Demons.
But Grundy, who must have found the Magpies’ premiership triumph on Saturday tough to watch, has handled the bonfire with absolute class, and will attempt to return to his best in the anonymity of the Sydney AFL lifestyle.
However, Grundy isn’t on his own in the trade backfire stakes heading into an exchange period where out-of-contract key defenders Ben McKay and Esava Ratugolea, in particular, are set to fill their pockets.
Bomber Brandon Zerk-Thatcher and Crow Tom Doedee will also change clubs as part of the boom time for key backmen this year.
And Fremantle ruckman Sean Darcy remains a big watch as whispers continue to circle about a change either this year or next as Luke Jackson looms as a more impressive No. 1 ruckman.
The Cats have pick eight this year but are open to offers, they’ve confirmed.
But the bulk of the trade intrigue surrounds Melbourne, and whether they will hold their nerve on key forward pairing Jacob Van Rooyen and Harry Petty for next year, or push a button on something more dramatic to maximise the premiership window.
Equally, the biggest coaching spotlight in the game will intensify on Dogs’ coach Luke Beveridge and his search to strike the right balance in 2024 as the club juggles a salary cap squeeze.
As one Bulldogs’ player said after the season had come to a close, things had been “tense” at the kennel late this year.
It seems extraordinary to look back, but Western Bulldogs started the season in the round 1 loss to Melbourne with four key forwards at a time when teams are going smaller, more mobile and more dynamic in attack.
And, just as the Demons scour the competition for potential key forward-ruck options, Bulldog Rory Lobb is surplus to requirements at the kennel.
The Dogs went taller and subsequently went backwards this year, missing the finals following a horrific loss to wooden-spooner West Coast at Marvel Stadium.
Lobb, 30, kicked 24 goals from 20 matches, spent time on the wing, and was eventually dropped to the VFL in Round 18 and 19 as the Dogs spluttered towards the end of the season, losing five of their last eight games.
And now in the aftermath of another wasted season in the west of Melbourne, the Dogs will confront the biggest salary cap crunch in the game, as they attempt to keep the game’s most in-demand free agent for next year, Aaron Naughton, breakout star Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, midfielder Bailey Smith and All-Australian ruckman Tim English.
And the future is not Lobb. It is Sam Darcy.
Plus, another father-son prodigy, Coates League team of the year centre half forward Jordan Croft, is also on the way.
As Hawthorn and Melbourne champion Jordan Lewis said this year the Lobb deal hasn’t worked out for the Dogs.
“The Dogs would have hoped for a lot more from Lobb,” Lewis said on Fox Footy.
“It was a bizarre decision to bring him to the Dogs where they’ve already got Naughton and Ugle-Hagan was up and coming.
“You didn’t really see a spot that he would fit.”
North Melbourne great David King agreed.
“I don’t know what his role is or his function is in this team, a high priced recruit,” King said.
“He doesn’t get options in terms of targets forward of centre, they hardly ever go to him. He just rolls around the ground.”
And ahead of a trade period which is set to be dominated by the four-pronged key defender switcheroo led by McKay and Ratugolea, what Melbourne does in attack is the big wildcard over the next few weeks.
Aside from premier Collingwood, which plucked Billy Frampton from nowhere this time last year, and Carlton, the Demons were a big story in September, losing both finals by two and seven points.
That is despite having 32 more inside 50s than Collingwood in week one of the finals and eight more scoring shots than Carlton in week two.
When the club crunched the data, losing both finals was calculated roughly as a 250-1 chance considering the supply.
The key performance indicators suggested they should have won one or both.
Instead, the Demons rolled snake eyes, and torched the footy.
And now the club confronts key questions on personnel, how to become more efficient, and whether the midfield stars are selfless enough. Whether they have enough line breaking speed and class in the midfield.
The Demons bombed the ball too long and straight against Collingwood and then butchered golden goal kicking opportunities against Carlton to bow out in straight sets.
Straight sets, once again.
Grundy, 29, watched both finals from the stands, knowing his cards had been marked two months earlier.
The trade failed, and as much as Melbourne tried to say it would not let him go, sanity will prevail when Grundy finds another new home in red and white.
But Lobb is exactly the type of flexible key forward-second ruck Melbourne needs, if he is prepared to go hard in the contest. And commit.
If he is prepared to ruck, at times, like Joe Daniher does.
Melbourne’s game is built on contested possession.
But would the Dogs and Demons bite the bullet on a one-and-done deal? Grundy for Lobb.
Or would Melbourne think more conservatively and not take a risk on a big man two years in a row, and instead wait a season to launch at Ben King, or Aaron Naughton?
These are the types of decisions being made at Demons HQ.
Melbourne was extraordinarily unlucky in September, gambling on Tom McDonald after four months out injured, after losing forwards Ben Brown, Petty, Jake Melksham and Van Rooyen in finals.
It meant they had to send forward Christian Petracca who booted 8.13 in his last six games.
The inaccuracy cost him the Brownlow Medal, too, as he polled only once in the last six matches.
But Melbourne not only needs a back-up ruck option in case Max Gawn gets injured, the Demons also need another key forward to support Van Rooyen, and possibly, Petty.
Van Rooyen is only 20. Petty suffered a Lisfranc injury.
They can’t pull all the team’s eggs in one basket.
Adelaide Crows have also made Petty priority No. 1 in the Shane McAdam deal as Petty hails from Wudinna, a tiny town in regional South Australia.
But Petty remains contracted for two more years and the Demons have laughed off any prospect off a move home. But the interest is enormous.
Grundy was contracted when he left Collingwood and he remains contracted for another four more years, but has already booked his ticket for Bondi.
His Melbourne locker is empty.
The Dogs are stacked down the spine. They have Naughton, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, Darcy, Tim English, James O’Donnell and should land 200cm key forward Croft in the draft.
Plus Lobb, who is contracted for two more years.
And the Dogs are certain to take the plunge on pick four in a mega swap with Gold Coast, giving up the Dogs’ picks 10, 17 and a future first-rounder for the Suns’ pick four.
It means the Dogs will be able to take 170cm electric forward Nick Watson to partner Cody Weightman at ground level. It will be more balanced.
While Collingwood, Brisbane, GWS Giants and Carlton were all on the rise in 2023, the Dogs and Demons would be among the most disappointed.
And at Melbourne, Brown, McDonald and Adam Tomlinson all look past their best, while marking targets Mabior Chol looks set for Hawthorn and Jacob Koschitzke will land at Richmond.
Chol can look disinterested at times but has talent and athleticism and Koschitzke surprisingly fell out of favour at Hawthorn this year.
Ben King will be the most in-demand player in the game if he doesn’t re-sign by mid-season under new coach Damien Hardwick at Gold Coast.
There will also be an enormous spotlight on whether Harry McKay can help lead Carlton to a flag next year and whether his twin brother, Ben, can finally stiffen an Essendon backline desperate for a big body.
Essendon has been frontrunner for the strong-bodied defender since a Herald Sun report revealed the move on June 30.
But the Bombers aren’t done, as list boss Adrian Dodoro could yet pull off moves for Saints’ goal kicker Jade Gresham and North Melbourne Todd Goldstein, as part of a historic free agency triple play.
The Bombers had less money on the table than Hawthorn in the race for McKay but he chose Essendon because of the role, the relationship with Brad Scott, and belief in the Bombers’ vision.
The backman had an indifferent season, but the uncertainty surrounding his future – there has been no offer from North Melbourne – is said to have taken a toll and had an impact on his form this year.
But Essendon may have done North Melbourne no favours offering a deal which is borderline enough to trigger a first-round compensation pick for the Roos.
A first-round pick (tied to the Roos’ ladder position) would gift the Kangaroos pick three.
But why would Essendon want to trigger a first-round pick for North Melbourne which would only shuffle the Bombers back one selection in the draft order?
And it isn’t where the exchange period games stop.
If there are two deals which could drag on over the next two weeks, it’s two of the other key defenders in this year’s back half ring-a-rosy, Ratugolea and Zerk-Thatcher.
The Cats want a future first-rounder from Port Adelaide for Ratugolea, which the Power have baulked at.
Essendon want an early pick in the 20s for Zerk-Thatcher.
Seems fair enough.
But the Power are in a tight spot for picks after trading away first, second and third-round selections in the Jason Horne-Francis and Willie Rioli deals last year.
It means list boss Jason Cripps has had to hit the phones over the past week trying to turn Port’s future first-rounder into two early picks in the second round.
That way, the club can try to give one pick to satisfy Geelong for Ratugolea and the other to Essendon to complete a deal for Zerk-Thatcher.
But it may not be enough as the Bombers and Cats both prepare to play hard ball on returns for their ready-made defenders.
History says the deals get done, but for now Port is a bit stuck.
The break glass in case of emergency option is trading playmaker Xavier Duursma to create another pick, but the Power have said they do not want to off-load the wingman.
But to take a step forward next year Ken Hinkley’s men need to improve in the back half and that is why Ratugolea and Zerk-Thatcher are on the hook.
The Power’s midfield is stacked as it is.
Like the Dogs’ tall forward stocks.
But after taking the biggest trade punt of the exchange period last year, it remains to be seen whether Melbourne is still in a gambling mood.
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Originally published as AFL trade news: Rory Lobb could be Melbourne’s solution to failed Brodie Grundy trade
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