AFL Run Home: Every game predicted for final weeks starting from round 16
An easy run home for Essendon? Not quite, if you look a little closer at the remaining fixture. Can Brad Scott’s side hang out for a final in Melbourne? Our experts give their verdict on every game in the run home.
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Forget the byes. Now the mid-season malaise is over, it’s time to look to September.
The log-jam in the middle of the ladder and at the very bottom has this AFL season set for a grandstand finish and to get you there, our experts have predicted every game from here and where your team will finish.
It’s great news for Sydney and Carlton fans, with the Swans set for an all-time home-and-away season.
Geelong’s poor form should turn around given their healthy draw on the run home, while we are backing the Giants to climb.
But the Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide, Melbourne and Gold Coast will find it tough from here to squeeze into the top eight.
For each club, Josh Barnes predicted all of their remaining games, joined by a panel of experts.
To calculate a final consensus ladder among the experts, if they disagreed on a result (for example one expert tipped Sydney to beat Brisbane and vice-versa), that result was deemed a draw.
We’re tipping some big things on the run home and even bigger things in the finals – what about Carlton-Collingwood and Sydney Derby for our qualifying finals?
1. SYDNEY
Won: 13, Lost: 1, Points: 52, Percentage: 148.8
Josh Barnes predicted finish: 1st (21-2 record)
Lachie McKirdy predicted record: 21-2, Experts consensus finish: 1st (20-2-1)
Barnes says: Only three times in the past 78 years have the Swans claimed the minor premiership but it is so hard to see them letting it slip from here. The club’s most wins in a season is 17 in both 2014 and 2016, and that record seems certain to fall too. The last team to win 21 games in a season was the 2008 Cats and you have to go back to the 2011 Magpies for the last team to win at least 20. An all-time dominant home-and-away campaign is very much in play right now.
McKirdy says: The dominance of the Swans is typified by how emphatically they have put teams to the sword. Yes, they’ve only lost one game all season. But their average winning margin in 2024 is currently 37 points. They haven’t had a single win that has been less than a two-goal margin. Longmire’s side are on a 10-game winning streak and it’s hard to see them carrying that form all the way to September, particularly with players like Callum Mills and Luke Parker to come back in and rotations bound to happen. But their incredible depth has them placed well for a record run, and destiny is in their own hands that they shouldn’t have to return to the MCG until the final Saturday of the season.
2. CARLTON
Won: 10, Lost: 4, Points: 40, Percentage: 114.5
Josh Barnes finish: 2nd (18-5)
Matt Forrest record: 17-6, Experts: 2nd (17-6)
Barnes says: The Blues are flying and have a pretty comfortably run home. A round 21 blockbuster against Collingwood will be a litmus test, and a trip to face the Giants will be tough, but the Blues will be comfortable favourites in every other game. The last time Carlton had a regular season this dominant was 1995 and everyone knows how that year ended.
Forrest says: Carlton leads the pack of teams chasing Sydney, with a group of three or four teams just off the pace the Swans are setting. The clash against Collingwood in round 21 could be a preview for the first week of finals action.
3. ESSENDON
Won: 9, Lost: 4, Drawn: 1, Points: 38, Percentage: 102.7
Josh Barnes finish: 7th (14-8-1)
Matt Forrest record: 13-9-1, Experts: 8th (11-9-3)
Forrest says: The Bombers have been talked about having an easy run home, but outside of their four-week stretch from round 19-22, none of their opponents are easybeats. Not leaving the state, outside of a round 24 game against Brisbane, will certainly help their chances of a finals berth.
Barnes says: As Matt said, home comforts is a very important trend for a few Victorian contenders. The Dons have a poor record against the Cats so that is a 50-50 game I took off them but if they sew up five winnable games in a row starting in round 18, Brad Scott is off to finals. Now to win one.
4. COLLINGWOOD
Won: 8, Lost: 4, Drawn: 2, Points: 36, Percentage: 107.3
Josh Barnes finish: 3rd (16-5-2)
Matt Forrest record: 16-5-2, Experts: 3rd (15-5-3)
Forrest says: Now talk about a great run home. One trip away from the MCG in the final eight games, with a quick flight up to Sydney for a game against the Swans. Collingwood will rocket up the ladder and book in a top-four spot, as well as carry in outstanding form for a real crack at back-to-back flags.
Barnes says: Agree with Forrest on this one, a slate of seven of their last eight at the MCG is almost too good to be true, and the Pies have been one of the best sides in the comp in the last couple months with a plethora of injuries. Craig McRae’s team lost three of their last five home-and-away games last year, so how hard will they be to stop in September if they are in form?
5. FREMANTLE
Won: 8, Lost: 5, Drawn: 1, Points: 34, Percentage: 112.3
Josh Barnes finish: 8th (13-9-1)
Eliza Reilly record: 15-7-1, Experts: 6th (12-8-4)
Reilly says: The top four hunt is well and truly on but I think the Dockers might fall just short depending on how other results fall. They should still make finals from here with winnable home games against Richmond, Melbourne, West Coast, Geelong and Port Adelaide. Fremantle has had a few blips at home this year but I reckon they can win all five and put themselves in a really strong position to pinch a scalp away against Essendon when Alex Pearce returns from injury. Sydney should be too strong on the road and GWS will likely have their best team on the park in the penultimate round.
Barnes says: I’m less optimistic about the run home for the Dockers. It’s very tough to beat the Hawks down in Tasmania and the Bombers are travelling well enough to win on their home deck. That is the difference between a top-four push and being on the edge of the eight. Good news is 13 wins and a draw should get the Dockers to September.
6. GWS GIANTS
Won: 8, Lost: 6, Points: 32, Percentage: 110.5
Josh Barnes finish: 4th (16-7)
Lachie McKirdy record: 16-7, Experts: 5th (16-7)
McKirdy says: The Giants have certainly lost some of their aura from earlier in the year after their fantastic start to the season. But make no mistake, the signs are there that this team still has what it takes. Some big home games against fellow top-eight sides Carlton and Fremantle will be the big litmus test, but with key players returning from injury Adam Kingsley would be expecting them to get the job done. They went on a near-flawless run to make the finals last year, and they’re perfectly capable of doing the same even though they’ll be getting their frequent flyer miles up in the process.
Barnes says: I get the feeling we are being too generous to the Giants by sneaking them into the top four. They have been struggling through much of the last two months but they still have a very good draw from here. Getting to 16 wins would equal 2016 as the club’s best regular season.
7. GEELONG
Won: 8, Lost: 6, Points: 32, Percentage: 102.9
Josh Barnes finish: 5th (15-8)
Matt Forrest record: 14-9, Experts: 7th (14-8-1)
Forrest says: A lot of pundits are writing off Geelong, but finals are still well on the cards. The Cats need to sort out plenty of holes across the ground, but there’s enough experience at Kardinia Park to solve those issues. Good teams find ways to win when they’re not playing good footy, and the Cats have runs on the board.
Barnes says: Even Chris Scott acknowledged last weekend that the draw has seen the Cats fluctuate this year. Their fixture has been tough lately but opens up on the run home. They should make the eight from here. A home game against the Hawks isn’t a walkover anymore and the Dogs match could be a swing game but Scott owns Luke Beveridge. As Matt says, there is a lot of work to be done for Geelong but they should tick off the wins they need. I have Scott winning 15 home-and-away games for the 10th time in 14 seasons.
8. PORT ADELAIDE
Won: 8, Lost: 6, Points: 32, Percentage: 101
Josh Barnes finish: 11th 11-12
Simeon Thomas-Wilson record: 12-11, Experts: 12th (10-11-2)
Thomas-Wilson says: Can the Power salvage its season? Port’s run home means it has the next four games to find some form before the season-defining spell. Given how the Power has fared so far in big games it’s hard to trust Ken Hinkley’s side to get the job done, as the senior coach looks to deal with the most pressure he has been under so far in his career.
Barnes says: Sorry Ken, but I agree with Sim here. It’s hard to see the Power coach surviving this run home. Port can certainly still make it, particularly if they bag wins over the Dogs and Sun in the next few weeks. But it feels like the club is due for big change.
9. MELBOURNE
Won: 8, Lost: 6, Points: 32, Percentage: 100.4
Josh Barnes finish: 12th 11-12
Matt Forrest record: 11-12, Experts: 13th (11-12)
Forrest says: Forrest says: It’s not pretty viewing for the Demons. Their lack of a key forward prevents them from kicking big scores, missing Christian Petracca will hurt every week, and Clayton Oliver desperately needs to find some form. There aren’t many easy games to finish the season.
Barnes says: It’s glass-half-empty here on the Dees. It will come down to swing games against Essendon, Fremantle, GWS and the Bulldogs, all in a row from round 18. They are winnable but it’s hard to give the Dees the benefit of the doubt. What direction does the club take after missing finals?
10. BRISBANE LIONS
Won: 7, Lost: 6, Drawn: 1, Points: 30, Percentage: 122.1
Josh Barnes finish: 6th 14-8-1
Callum Dick record: 15-7-1, Experts: 5th (14-6-3)
Dick says: The way the Lions are playing at the moment, they could be the team that finally knocks off Sydney when they meet at the Gabba in round 19. Chris Fagan has them firing on all cylinders and their KPIs are that of a premiership contender. They’ve never won more than six games away from home in a season under Fagan but have already ticked off four. This could be a historic turnaround. Many – myself included – had top four written off after the Hawks loss, but it now looks a genuine possibility given form and fixture.
Barnes says: Like Callum, I think the conversation around Brisbane is less about whether they make the eight and more about making the four. Ask the stats boffins and they will tell you the Lions have one of the best profiles in the league and are actual flag contenders. The last two years, the fourth-placed side has hit 16 wins, so 14-and-a-half is not be enough.
11. WESTERN BULLDOGS
Won: 7, Lost: 7, Points: 28, Percentage: 119.7
Josh Barnes finish: 10th (11-12)
Matt Forrest record: 12-11, Experts: 9th (12-11)
Forrest says: 12 wins won’t be enough to make finals this year, and it may come down to a round 24 clash against the Giants to determine whether they extend their season. But if they can knock off Carlton at Marvel Stadium or Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, it could be an easier run into September.
Barnes says: Matt and I are getting the popcorn ready for that final round clash against new-rivals the Giants. But really, I think finals will be gone by then. The Dogs are coming into better form and need to pinch three wins against Carlton, Geelong, Sydney, Melbourne and GWS. Can be done, yet I don’t get them there. That would only mean trouble for Luke Beveridge.
12. GOLD COAST
Won: 7, Lost: 7, Points: 28, Percentage: 105.5
Josh Barnes finish: 9th 12-11
Callum Dick record: 13-10, Experts: 10th (10-10-3)
Barnes says: The obvious storyline around the Suns is their away record. They have only won games at home venues on the Gold Coast and Darwin. If they win only their home games from here, they miss the finals. I think there will be a couple games dropped at home but surely – surely – they have to pick up one or two on the road. Win all at home and beat North Melbourne and West Coast and Damien Hardwick gets his team into the eight. But I think they just fall short.
Dick says: I agree. North and West Coast are must-win road games. Can the Suns keep their unbeaten home record intact in the face of what will be an overwhelmingly pro-Collingwood crowd this weekend? Saturday’s clash will be one of two major swing games – alongside Essendon in round 22 – that I think makes the difference between top eight or another early finish to the year. GWS, Port Adelaide and Melbourne are all playing markedly worse than they were earlier this season when the run home looked seriously tough. Now it looks possible, but Hardwick needs to bridge the gap between their best and worst if they are to feature in September. We could look back on the St Kilda loss as the one that got away from the Suns.
13. HAWTHORN
Won: 7, Lost: 7, Points: 28, Percentage: 105.5
Josh Barnes finish: 13th 11-12
Lachie McKirdy record: 12-11, Experts: 11th (10-10-3)
Barnes says: Might be a little harsh on the rising Hawks, but their run home is tough. To make finals, Sam Mitchell’s side will have to beat at least two of these opponents: Geelong, Collingwood, Adelaide, GWS and Carlton. The Cats and Crows appear most likely but away wins are tough to come by. Finals is definitely within reach and it could really be decided in the next three weeks, with our experts split on whether their hot form will carry on.
McKirdy says: It’s a tough run home for the Hawks but there’s certainly a few scalps there for the taking. Finals might be a bridge too far, but they’re already well ahead of schedule under Sam Mitchell and keeping their consistency of performance should be the focus regardless. The last two weeks should be guaranteed wins, so if they’re any chance of a top-eight finish they’ll have to pull a few more upsets before the year is done.
14. ST KILDA
Won: 5, Lost: 9, Points: 20, Percentage: 92.2
Josh Barnes finish: 14th 7-16
Matt Forrest record: 6-17, Experts: 15th (6-17)
Barnes says: The good thing for Saints fans is they clearly don’t have much travel to do on the run home, with every game bar a round 18 trip to Adelaide coming under the roof at Marvel Stadium. Don’t think it will help them too much. From what we have seen, the Saints have largely beaten the teams they should and aren’t quite good enough to beat those above them.
Forrest says: It’s a year wasted at Moorabbin, with the Saints next-to-no chance of playing finals in 2024. The Ross Lyon defence isn’t what it used to be, Jack Steele doesn’t have any decent help, and their forwards are failing to fire.
15. ADELAIDE
Won: 4, Lost: 9, Drawn: 1, Points: 18, Percentage: 102.6
Josh Barnes finish: 15th 6-16-1
Thomas-Wilson record: 6-16-1, Experts: 14th (6-16-1)
Barnes says: How can you tip the Crows at the moment? Matthew Nicks’ team is at sixes and sevens. They should pick up a couple of their home games down the stretch and the Showdown often throws up a surprise result. But this season looks likely to get uglier – 16 losses would be a new club low.
Thomas-Wilson says: It has been a terrible season for the Crows and it is unlikely to get any better for Adelaide fans. Matthew Nicks’ side is usually a threat at home but so far in 2024 they have rarely looked like the side they have previously been at Adelaide Oval. It might be a bit kind to them to say they will win the Showdown but they have had Port’s measure in recent meetings.
16. WEST COAST
Won: 3, Lost: 11, Points: 12, Percentage: 72.9
Josh Barnes finish: 16th (3-20)
Eliza Reilly record: 5-18, Experts: 16th (4-18-1)
Barnes says: Yikes. I wanted to give the Eagles some more love but where do you see a win? They could top the Hawks or Suns at home, the Roos in Hobart and they cruised through a Derby against the Dockers earlier this year. But those other sides are going better at the moment. I’m certain they will win again somewhere, but can’t pick it out. No more wins would mean the Eagles lost 20 games for three seasons running.
Reilly says: I’m slightly more optimistic about what the Eagles can do on the run home given they’ve now got Oscar Allen, Harley Reid and Tim Kelly back from injury. I think they’ll be more competitive on the road after gaining a bit of confidence against Essendon and I can see them knocking off St Kilda. Hawthorn and Gold Coast at home are both winnable games and I reckon they can stun the Hawks coming off a bye. But the Suns have beaten the Eagles in Perth a few times in the past few years and I’m predicting the same in round 21. North should be too strong in Tasmania.
17. RICHMOND
Won: 2, Lost: 12, Points: 8, Percentage: 63.9
Josh Barnes finish: 18th 2-21
Matt Forrest record: 3-20, Experts: 18th (2-20-1)
Forrest says: I think there’s one or two wins to come for the Tigers. North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium could decide the wooden spoon in round 21, but games against St Kilda and Gold Coast also shape as chances to get off the bottom of the ladder. But after the Harley Reid fiasco last year, do the Tigers pack it in for round 24?
Barnes says: Like Matt, I do think there is a win somewhere for the Tigers but where do you find it? Perhaps if the Suns are out of the finals race, the Saints and Roos falter or the Hawks have a bad day. I’m sure they will win again but good luck spotting that victory. A first wooden spoon since 2007 beckons.
18. NORTH MELBOURNE
Won: 1, Lost: 13, Points: 4, Percentage: 63.4
Barnes finish: 17th 3-20
Matt Forrest record: 3-20, Experts: 17th (3-20)
Barnes says: The Roos have come alive over the last three weeks but it’s pretty tough to back them in over the next five weeks. North Melbourne is showing signs of progress but I have them pegged for 20 losses for the third-straight season. Even GWS and Gold Coast didn’t battle through three seasons as rough as this when they entered the competition.
Forrest says: The Roos should claw themselves off the bottom of the ladder, at the expense of Richmond, but three wins is as many as they’ll get. Somehow, despite another 20-loss season, it feels like the snake is turning at Arden Street.
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Originally published as AFL Run Home: Every game predicted for final weeks starting from round 16
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