AFL run home 2020: Will Port Adelaide finish as minor premiers, and will Adelaide win a game?
There are two burning questions being asked by SA footy fans: Will Port Adelaide finish on top? And will Adelaide win a game? We rate the Power and Crows’ run home for the remainder of the home and away season.
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There are two burning questions being asked by South Australia footy fans: Will Port Adelaide finish on top? And will Adelaide win a game?
We look at the Power, the Crows and each of the remaining teams in a complete club-by-club analysis of the AFL’s run home to the 2020 finals.
ADELAIDE
Played 11, 0 points, 55.5 per cent
Adelaide is on a collision course with an embarrassing piece of football history, as it edges closer to the AFL/VFL’s first winless season in 56 years.
Not since Fitzroy in 1964 – then in an 18-round season – has a team failed to post a single win.
Even the lacklustre Brisbane Bears and Swans teams of the early 90s, and Fitzroy in its diabolic final years, managed at least a single win.
But as each game ticks by and the losses under first-year coach Matthew Nicks continue to mount, it is increasingly difficult to see where the Crows’ breakthrough victory might come.
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STILL TO COME
ROUND 12: Western Bulldogs, Sunday August 16, Metricon Stadium
The Dogs are on a three-game losing streak of their own after falling to top-six rivals Richmond, Port Adelaide and Brisbane in a testing stretch. Hayden Crozier’s toe injury is a blow to the Bulldogs but Aaron Naughton should be available after finally overcoming soreness in his ankle. The Crows are set to regain Rory Sloane from a hand injury, but lose Tom Doedee and Tom Lynch to hamstrings and still have no Brad Crouch (hamstring). Last time these teams met in Round 23 last year, the Bulldogs handed Adelaide a 34-point defeat in what was Don Pyke’s last game as coach.
Win chance ranking: 3rd best chance of a win
ROUND 13: Geelong, Sunday August 23, Adelaide Oval
The Cats are flying and could well win every game in the run home the way they are going. Geelong has kicked the equal-most goals of any team in the competition this year with 118. The Crows have kicked the least goals of any team this year with 69. Adelaide also ranks last defensively, while Geelong ranks third. Plus, Geelong beat Adelaide in their two encounters last year by 27 and 24 points. The Cats could rest a few players here, but you suspect they would still win comfortably.
Win chance ranking: 6th best chance of a win
ROUND 14-18 FIXTURES TBC
CARLTON
The Blues are the third-worst team defensively, also have key players on the injury list and are prone to inconsistency of performance not just between games but between quarters this season. If they’re on, the Crows will be in trouble. But if Carlton has one of its off weeks, there might be a slim glimmer of hope for Adelaide.
Win chance ranking: 2nd best chance of a win
GWS
GWS aren’t going all that well by any means, but they do have a lot more talent on the park than the Crows. The Giants midfield isn’t quite firing, but the side does have the best efficiency of any team at scoring once inside-50 – a stat that Adelaide ranks 17th in.
Win chance ranking: 4th best chance of a win
HAWTHORN
Potentially Adelaide’s best chance of scoring a win in the run home. The Hawks are struggling and have pledged to play the kids in the back half of the season with an eye to the future. Hawthorn is averaging just 56 points a game – only 12 points more than Adelaide – and when you are kicking low scores like that you give the opposition a chance.
Win chance ranking: 1st best chance of a win
RICHMOND
The thumping 2017 Grand Final win the Tigers scored over Adelaide was where it all started to go wrong for the Crows. And this looks highly unlikely to be a turning-point game to get things back on track. While Adelaide did knock off Richmond by 33 points at Adelaide Oval last year, the Tigers are one of the form teams of the competition and are set to regain some serious talent for the final rounds of the season which will only further strengthen them.
Win chance ranking: 5th best chance of a win
PORT ADELAIDE
Played 11, 36 points, 142.7 per cent
Power coach Ken Hinkley was facing the sack last year after his side finished 10th and missed finals for a second successive year.
But Port Adelaide decided to stick fat and back in their man, and are now reaping the rewards.
Not only has Hinkley saved football with his focus on attack over defence – Brisbane great Jonathan Brown suggesting Hinkley should be knighted – but he has also taken the Power to a commanding position atop of the ladder ahead of a more than reasonable run home.
A top-two finish for the first time since 2007 looks on the cards.
STILL TO COME
ROUND 12: Geelong, Friday August 14, Metricon Stadium
A battle of two of the most in-form teams in the competition. The Power have won three in a row and five of their past six matches, while the Cats have won two in a row and three of their past four matches. Both teams average 72 points a game for, and defensively Port ranks second and Geelong ranks third. If the game was in Adelaide, you’d almost pencil in the Power. But being on the Gold Coast, the Cats are a very real chance. But will the breaks play a factor? Geelong is playing on a four-day turnaround, while the Power are coming off a six-day break.
Win chance ranking: Possible
ROUND 13: Hawthorn, Saturday August 22, Adelaide Oval
Should be easy pickings here for the Power against a Hawthorn side which is struggling to score and has vowed to play the kids in the run home after any finals hopes were dashed. The Hawks rank fourth-worst in the competition offensively and fifth-worst defensively, while the Power rank top-three in both categories.
Win chance ranking: Lock it in
ROUND 14-18 FIXTURES TBC
COLLINGWOOD
The outcome of this match might depend a little bit on when it’s fixtured. The Magpies are struggling now and have a host of stars on their injury list. But by Round 17 or 18, they could be humming again. Port Adelaide has lost its past two games against Collingwood – most recently by 39 points in Round 7 last year – but this is a very different Power side this season.
Win chance ranking: Likely
ESSENDON
The Bombers are just going at the moment and finals look unlikely. They still have some stars on the injury list and have a 1-2 record against top-eight teams this season, that one win coming over Collingwood back in Round 5. More recently, the Bombers have been belted by Brisbane (63 points) and suffered a four-point loss to GWS. Plus, when these two teams met in Round 20 last year, the Power came away with a 59-point thumping at Marvel Stadium.
Win chance ranking: Lock it in
NORTH MELBOURNE
Hardly needs explaining, this game. As it stands, it’s 1st on the ladder versus 16th. The Kangaroos are in a hole, have won just three games for the season and have a lengthy injury list. For them, the end of the year can’t come quickly enough. North Melbourne ranks second-worst in the competition defensively and fifth-worst offensively, compared to the Power being top-three in both categories. The Power don’t need much more percentage, but this could well be a percentage booster.
Win chance ranking: Lock it in
SYDNEY
Should be another easy one for the Power, here. The Swans currently sit 17th on the ladder and have won just one of their past seven games. During that stretch, Sydney has failed to kick more than six goals in five of the seven games and is averaging a lowly 53.5 points a game for the season. Last time Port Adelaide met Sydney in Round 21 last year, the Power scored a 47-point triumph.
Win chance ranking: Lock it in
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AFL 2020 news: Essendon and Gold Gold cannot be split in thriller; David Zaharakis injury
AFL injuries: Who is hurt and who is on the way back for Round 11 and 12
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