AFL round 24 fixture: Matt Forrest examines the likely scenarios for the finals contenders
The AFL’s round 24 fixture has set the scene for one of the craziest finishes to a home-and-away season in decades. But which team could have been put at a disadvantage in the finals race?
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It has been one of the closest-run seasons in recent history, and the AFL has locked in a round 24 that maximises the thrill of the chase for finals.
There is a chance as many as 11 teams sit inside the top eight at various times during the weekend’s action, with the finals picture not locked in until the final siren sounds between Fremantle and Port Adelaide.
The fixture is oddly similar to the Formula One’s qualifying format, where drivers are eliminated in segments throughout the three sessions.
It means that a driver who has submitted a lap, initially deemed fast enough to be safe inside the top 10, are watching the live leaderboards to see if they’re overtaken as time in the session ticks down.
Last year’s premiers will be the first team with the chance to edge into the top eight, provided the Pies can beat Sydney at the SCG and Brisbane in the next two rounds.
If they go undefeated in the last three rounds, Collingwood fans will go to bed on Friday night with their side inside the top eight, and potentially as high as fifth if they can win in convincing fashion.
The first game on Saturday won’t knock the Pies out of the eight, but it could move Geelong, who hosts West Coast at GMHBA Stadium, into the top four.
Hawthorn, who faces North Melbourne at UTAS Stadium at 4.35pm, will be the next team that could jump inside the top eight with a round 24 win.
The Hawks will need to beat Carlton in round 22 to have a genuine chance of finals, with a loss on Sunday forcing them to rely heavily on other results to make the eight.
Three wins to finish the season for the brown and gold would see them lock in 14 wins.
Should Hawthorn still be alive come the final round, playing on the Saturday could put them at a disadvantage not knowing the finals equation if it comes down to percentage with the likes of GWS or Port Adelaide.
Brisbane then faces Essendon on Saturday night at the Gabba, with a Lions victory pushing them into a top two spot.
A Bombers win would not be enough to get Essendon into the top eight, unless they beat Gold Coast and Sydney at Marvel Stadium in rounds 22 and 23.
The final day’s fixture, aptly named ‘Super Sunday’, has three games that will shape the eight.
Western Bulldogs and GWS are still both gunning for a double chance, with the winner likely jumping into fourth spot.
The loser of this clash could face a range of options: from hosting an elimination final, to travelling in the first week of finals, as well as potentially missing the eight altogether, such is the tightness of the race home.
Carlton then hosts St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, and will likely enter the game outside of the top eight.
If the Blues win, they’ll jump over the other 14-win teams on percentage, except for the Bulldogs (if they lose to the Giants on Sunday).
Fremantle and Port Adelaide will enter their game at 6.10pm with a huge advantage, knowing exactly what they need, and what a win gets them.
The Dockers will likely enter the game outside of the eight, needing a win to jump Carlton and GWS, and potentially Hawthorn and Collingwood as well.
However, the Power will enter the game with a chance to sew up a top four, and potentially even top two, spot with a win.
Port Adelaide would need to win its next two games, against Melbourne and Adelaide, to have a shot at a home qualifying final, and rely on Brisbane dropping a game.
It is possible to catch Sydney if the Swans drop a game and a heap of percentage, but the Lions’ draw against Adelaide means percentage does not affect the Power’s chase for the top two.
The AFL has maximised the potential of the round 24 fixture by waiting to lock in the games, and it is shaping up to be must-watch football.
Originally published as AFL round 24 fixture: Matt Forrest examines the likely scenarios for the finals contenders
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