AFL round 1: Garry Lyon previews Hawthorn vs Essendon blockbuster

Sydney learned the hard way last week that you let Will Day and James Sicily loose at your own peril. As Fox Footy’s GARRY LYON writes, it’s a mistake Essendon can’t afford to repeat.

They say to be forewarned is to be forearmed.

Well, Brad Scott and his Essendon team were given plenty of warning about the potency of this 2025 Hawthorn outfit, in their 20-point opening-round win over the Sydney Swans.

And in this modern world of football analytics, espionage, and spying there should be no great surprises anyway.

Certainly, as the season unfolds, opposition clubs are as intimately attuned to how each other wants to play as they are to their own gameplans. But there was plenty the Bombers’ scouting team would have taken note of last Friday night. Knowing what the opposition will do is one thing, being able to stop it is a whole different challenge.

Will Day tore the game to shreds in the opening half against the Swans. Three goals, 19 disposals and five clearances put him fairly and squarely as priority No. 1 for the Bombers.

Do they allow Day the freedom afforded him by Sydney in the first half, or do they instigate the type of lockdown role that James Jordon deployed in the second half, which reduced Day to mere mortal status?

Garry Lyon says Essendon must use Sam Durham on Will Day.

In Sam Durham, Essendon has, almost, the perfect weapon. Athletically predisposed to matching Day around the ground, physically strong enough to go head-to-head at stoppages, and an attacking mindset that allowed him to kick goals in 10 games last year.

More importantly, Durham is the fiercest of competitors and would thrive on the responsibility and challenge of matching wits with the young Hawk dynamo.

Next on the priority list is the Hawks’ skipper, James Sicily. No one plays at their own pace more than this man. Never hurried, sometimes holding the ball for what seems like a ridiculously long time in a game that prides itself on pressure and contest, before swinging the ball onto his boot and delivering a laser-like pass that more often than not catapults his side forward in the most dangerous of manner.

Along with Day, Sicily was the biggest stumbling block for Sydney in the first half. He is a fascinating watch. He glides around the back half with seemingly no great care or concern for an opponent, instead backing-in his ability to decipher where the incoming ball is headed over anyone else and, more often than not, arriving there first and intercepting the possession.

Will Day set up Hawthorn’s Opening Round win with three first-half goals.

Six marks, 14 possessions and seven intercept possessions in the half was enough for Dean Cox and his coaching staff – the Swans’ Will Hayward made a beeline for Sicily at the start of the third quarter. His primary function was not to chase the football, for Sicily had already demonstrated that he was by far the superior hunter.

Hayward had to engage Sicily every time the ball entered his orbit. And then, quite simply, not be outworked. His single-minded approach to this task – and its effectiveness – will have been played over and over to one of the Essendon front six this week.

Two solitary possessions to the Hawks’ leader, a goal to Hayward, and the margin cut to five points at three-quarter time, and game back on.

As soon as Tom Barrass and Josh Battle committed to the Hawks, we knew Sicily would become a fascinating watch. That the benefits of their recruiting would reap such immediate rewards would have the list management team still smiling.

Sicily goes forward and, as much as any other player, ensures a memorable victory.

There will be no surprise when, and if, Sicily wanders forward on Friday night. His marker will be well-established. Stopping him, however, is another thing.

The Bombers would have taken notice of coach Sam Mitchell’s willingness to deploy Jai Newcombe inside the forward-50 at times, sometimes one out. Identifying a mismatch for one of the better one-on-one players in the competition, and isolating him, makes sense.

Newcombe kicked a goal and, along with Day, combined for four goals and had 15 score involvements. The pair will be a nightmare for opponents if they add this offensive flair to their game.

Sam Wicks’ effective curtailing of Nick Watson would have been noted. Genuine speed allowed him to close down space on Watson, not allowing him to dive into his trick bag too often.

James Sicily was a threat at both ends against the Swans.

As instructional as it would have been for the Bombers to go to school on Hawthorn’s performance, they will still be far more concerned about how they are to execute this year.

They would want more of the first half of last year when they amassed eight wins, a draw, and two losses from the first 11 games to have them second on the ladder.

It came on the back of an impressive stoppage game, enabling them to sit sixth for clearance-to-score rate and were the third hardest team to score against from clearance.

They also enjoyed far more football in their front half than they previously had. Fifth for inside-50 differential, sixth for time in forward-half differential and sixth for forward-half intercepts.

From round 11 on, it became a nightmare. The forward connection was dysfunctional, the stoppage advantage was stripped from them and they became far too easy to play against.

Most damning is their turnover game. Eighteen of the last 19 premiers have sat in the top three for points differential from turnover. They are compelling numbers.

The Bombers ranked 14th in 2024 and haven’t been in the top six in over 10 years and have been in the bottom six in six of the last 10 years. This has to be addressed. Only West Coast last year gave up more points from turnover in their back half.

Defensively they must get better. Across the last three years, West Coast, North Melbourne and Essendon are the only sides to rank bottom-six for points against each year. That’s not the company that a finals aspirant wants to be keeping given the different stages of development of the Roos and Eagles.

The optimism comes from the front half. Isaac Kako will draw people to the footy. Nate Caddy is genuinely exciting. Kyle Langford has kicked 94 goals in the last two years.

Nic Martin is all class and could provide headaches with his creativity and poise.

Brad Scott will have his work cut out to keep all of Hawthorn’s weapons quiet.

It’s then up to Archie Perkins to take another step in his career and Jye Menzie and Matt Guelfi to continue to improve. For Peter Wright to recapture his best-and-fairest form, for Draper to prove he could be a 30-plus goals-a-year forward and Jade Gresham to be more than an occasional dangerous threat.

They are all genuine questions that Bomber fans want answers to. It feels like they’ve been asking them for a while. Maybe they’ll find some tonight as they embark on this long and arduous journey. For it’s not where you are at the halfway mark that matters.

They know what’s coming tonight with the red-hot Hawks. There will be no surprises.

Except, if they beat them. That will answer a question or two.

Originally published as AFL round 1: Garry Lyon previews Hawthorn vs Essendon blockbuster