AFL: Mick McGuane’s in-depth Carlton v Collingwood preview, latest hot takes
The Pies will miss some midfield troops in their blockbuster with the Blues, and AFL analyst MICK MCGUANE is putting the blowtorch on a Pies legend to stop Carlton’s main man.
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Two arch rivals are set to go toe-to-toe in one of the biggest matches of the season on Friday night.
AFL analyst Mick McGuane has taken a deep dive into both Carlton and Collingwood to determine where the match will be won and lost — and what he would do if he was coaching either team.
Plus, check out Mick’s latest hot takes for the week below.
CARLTON
THE KEY
Slick ball movement.
The Blues must use the footy well and at speed — something they have been better at in recent weeks but were shaky with to start the season.
If you play slow and let Collingwood set up the ground the way it wants to, good luck.
Over the past four weeks, the Magpies have conceded an average of just 77.5 points a game and have allowed their opposition to score from just 40 per cent of inside-50s — ranked third in the competition.
However, defenders like Jeremy Howe and Isaac Quaynor allow their opponents some leg rope when engaged one-on-one so they must be exploited.
Those interceptors will also each have one eye on Carlton’s key targets in Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay this week.
Therefore, there will be opportunities to penetrate Collingwood’s defence.
It is critical that the Carlton ball carriers move the footy at speed, change angles and look for both shallow and deep options when going inside 50.
The Blues can’t be too predictable in going to Curnow and McKay, either.
Other players like Matt Owies, Tom De Koning and Matt Cottrell have to make themselves viable options.
Carlton will get territory.
It recorded 66 inside-50s against Geelong last weekend.
But the challenge is converting that territory on the scoreboard, both through ball use going forward and set-shot goalkicking which was poor last week.
THE CONCERN
How the Blues defend.
On the back of Michael Voss’ comments in his post-match press conference last weekend, I’ve got no doubt there would have been a strong review centred on how poorly Carlton defended the ground against Geelong.
The Cats were able to move the footy from back-to-front far too efficiently — and won because of it.
If the Blues are going to be a come-forward-to-defend team, the off-side slider has to be there to cover.
Too many times last week, that didn’t occur.
Zac Williams pressed up the ground, but no one was coming over to cover his man who was lengthening goal-side.
It was bad football — both individually from Williams and from the team — and Voss was understandably frustrated by it.
It wasn’t a one-off, either.
Over the past three weeks, the Blues have conceded an average of 105.3 points a game — the second-most of any side.
They are also coughing up scores from 49 per cent of opposition inside-50s, ranked fourth-worst in the competition.
Collingwood has speed to burn and without pressure up the ground and a strong and cohesive defensive set-up from Carlton, the likes of Bobby Hill, Lachie Schultz and Jamie Elliott could dine out.
The Blues must be better for longer and what better time to raise the bar than on a Friday night against the old foe.
IF I WERE THE BLUES …
I’d be sending my best key defender in Jacob Weitering to Collingwood’s best key forward in Brody Mihocek.
The Collingwood goalkicker is in good form and is a target player that the Magpies like to go through, so Weitering must bring his best in what will be a key match-up.
Nic Newman needs to play on Elliott and keep him closely guarded, given he is a player who has the capacity to turn a game in the space of 10 minutes.
I’d be putting the heat on my ruck combination of Marc Pittonet and De Koning to ensure they are highly competitive against Darcy Cameron and Mason Cox and supply the onball brigade with plenty of first possessions.
The midfield is where the Blues could get the upper hand, with the Magpies missing Jordan De Goey and Tom Mitchell.
De Koning must also push forward to test the defence of Cameron and Cox and see if he can hit the scoreboard when he is playing in the ruck.
I’d also challenge Williams to bounce back and make better defensive decisions.
At times last week he got it all wrong and was deplorable during critical stages of the game.
The Blues play a defensive structure that calls on trust and reliability, but sometimes footy IQ needs to enter the minds of players like Williams.
In his pursuit to come forward to defend last week, he abandoned a direct opponent who was always going to be used.
Williams should have realised that there was no off-side slider to cover the man he was leaving — and therefore not pressed up, trusting those up the field to chase the opponent with the ball.
It is simple things like that which will help Carlton not get scored against so easily into the future.
COLLINGWOOD
THE KEY
It’s all about forward half pressure for the Magpies on Friday night.
As much as forwards are there to win the footy and hit the scoreboard, in this game they must all take the responsibility to immediately snap into an aggressive, manic defensive mindset.
That’s all of the regulars in attack — Beau McCreery, Hill, Elliott, Schultz and even Mihocek.
Carlton showed against Geelong last week just how well it can transition the ball from defensive 50.
However, the Blues have also proven susceptible when the opposition brings the heat, often using the ball poorly and making bad decisions in that area of the ground.
Given Collingwood is missing a pair of key midfielders in De Goey and Mitchell, generating scores from its forward half will be all the more important.
The Magpies have dramatically improved in that area this year, ranking 2nd for points from forward-half intercepts.
Against Essendon on Anzac Day, they generated 24 forward-half intercepts for a return of 5.5 (35).
They’ll need a similar result once again if they are to take down the Blues, which will only come about if the players with the leg speed to apply pressure do so.
Collingwood ranks seventh for forward-50 tackles this year at 11.1 per game, while Carlton is No. 1 at 16.6 per game.
The Magpies should be aiming to post Blues-type numbers of forward-50 tackles this week.
THE CONCERN
What has happened to Collingwood’s starts?
And it’s not just first quarters that are the issue.
In the first 10 minutes of all quarters this year, the Magpies have been outscored by their opposition to the tune of 100 points.
That’s alarming — and ranked 18th in the competition.
Voss will no doubt be drilling into his players that the Blues have a prime opportunity to get a jump if they can bring high pressure and play at a high intensity early on Friday night.
If they do, they will be hard to reel back in.
On the flip side, Craig McRae will be imploring his side to roll up their sleeves and get to work to address this problem.
It all starts at the coalface for Collingwood.
With De Goey and Mitchell sidelined, the other Magpies midfielders must have the anticipation to be first into the contest.
If they don’t win first possession, they will need to be defensively strong and stop Carlton from getting its inside-to-outside game going.
The Magpies haven’t been scoring from stoppages — and didn’t defend them well against Essendon on Anzac Day, either.
The Bombers dominated clearances 40-23 that day and scored 6.7 (43) to 1.3 (9) from the score source.
If Collingwood’s midfielders are too easy to play against, Carlton twin towers Curnow and McKay could have a picnic with the opportunities that they will be presented with.
The Magpies’ on-ballers must be willing to fight tooth and nail — offensively and defensively — from the start.
IF I WERE THE MAGPIES …
Plenty has been said about Scott Pendlebury’s impact when around the ball, outside of the immediate 5m to 10m radius at stoppages.
He just hasn’t got the leg speed to get after a loose footy or chase down an opponent once in space.
However, I’d be hitting up the former captain for an enormous challenge in there — limiting Patrick Cripps’ influence.
Cripps is an outstanding stoppage player who relishes being the go-to for his team’s first possession wins.
He often draws a crowd, before dishing it out to teammates in open space.
Pendlebury needs to exercise some ‘opponent control’ and take away a strength of the Blues in an area of the ground that the Magpies can’t afford to be smashed in.
He is the man for the job.
The one area of concern with that match up is if Cripps goes forward, in which case a handover can happen to Howe or Brayden Maynard.
In defence, Darcy Moore must go to Curnow and Billy Frampton must play on McKay.
I’d be putting Howe on Carlton’s least dangerous forward — who might push up the ground and become irrelevant.
That will help free Howe up to provide support to Moore and Frampton against two players who are targeted by the Blues about 50 per cent of the time.
When De Koning is in the ruck, Cox and Cameron must have a defensive mindset to get goal-side of him given his desire to push forward and provide another target in the air.
At the other end, the Magpies need to be clever going inside-50 and change angles to avoid Weitering wherever possible.
Weitering — who will likely have a role on Mihocek — had six intercept marks among 11 intercept possessions last week.
Collingwood can’t afford for him to put up numbers like that again.
MICK’S TIP- CARLTON BY 4 POINTS
The losses of De Goey and Mitchell are big for Collingwood and should allow Carlton’s powerful midfield to dominate this game. As much as the Magpies have improved their defensive profile in recent weeks, if the Blues can provide their potent forward line with enough supply the dam wall might eventually break. Carlton has been touted as a premiership candidate, so let’s see them respond from a loss last week and take down the reigning premier.
MICK’S HOT TAKES
GOOD
Gryan Miers
If the All-Australian team was selected today, Miers would be one of the first picked. He has taken his game to another level this season and is a big reason why the Cats sit unbeaten atop of the ladder. The high half-forward finds space and makes superb decisions going forward, which is why his score assists and score involvements are so high. Miers deserves plenty of credit, but so does his coach Chris Scott. It’s good coaching to identify what a player can do and play them in a position where they can have maximum impact.
BAD
Jack Higgins’ three-week suspension
I understand the issues around concussion, but Higgins is there as a small forward to tackle strongly and try and dispossess opponents when they have the ball. Some level of strength and force has to take place for that to occur and when a player attempts to kick the ball they will naturally become unbalanced. We seem to be getting too caught up in the outcome of these incidents, rather than thoroughly assessing all of the potential mitigating circumstances.
UGLY
Brisbane Lions
I was one who tipped the Lions to win the premiership, but they have been bitterly disappointing since reaching last year’s Grand Final. Players are in survival mode doing what they want to do — not what the team needs them to do. The stars are part of that problem, including Lachie Neale. Some of his defensive intent against GWS last week was as bad as it gets. There will need to be a complete overhaul of attitude if the Lions are to stop the rot against an improving Gold Coast Suns on Sunday night. Time to be selfless and stop being selfish.
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Originally published as AFL: Mick McGuane’s in-depth Carlton v Collingwood preview, latest hot takes
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