AFL home and away records: Where every club sits and why Gold Coast is emerging as the league’s new fortress
Just how big a factor is home ground advantage in the AFL? We’ve delved into the key numbers to reveal the league’s best travellers and where the AFL’s new fortress is being built.
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Mirror, mirror on the wall, whose home ground is scariest of them all?
The answer might surprise you.
For the three seasons preceding 2024, Geelong and Brisbane both staked claims to being the toughest road trips in footy.
From 2021-23, the Cats and Lions went a combined 50-9 at home during the regular season. Brisbane won 90.6 per cent of its matches at the Gabba over that three-year period, while the Cats went at 77.7 per cent.
The league average over that same span hovered around 55 per cent.
These days the term “fortress” is handed out like corn dogs and cotton candy at a carnival. But Brisbane and Geelong both built strong regular season campaigns on being near-unbeatable at home and earned that title.
However, the pendulum has swung the other way in season 2024. After going unbeaten at the Gabba last year, the Lions dropped their first three games at home this season and currently sit 2-3. Conversely, Geelong won its first two games at Kardinia Park but then lost the next two, including Saturday’s four-point defeat to GWS.
Brisbane’s season suddenly sits in a precarious position now that its home ground advantage has been nullified, while questions are being asked of Geelong who has lost four games in a row for the first time under Chris Scott.
In their stead it is Gold Coast, currently 4-0 at Carrara and 6-0 when including its two home games in Darwin, who enjoys the best home ground record in the AFL this season.
Damien Hardwick has spoken repeatedly of a desire to earn the coveted ‘fortress’ moniker for People First Stadium, which traditionally has skewed closer to the league average winning percentage.
But do clubs actively work to achieve home ground dominance in the AFL? Or is it just part and parcel of a universally accepted trend in world sport, that it is easier to win games at home than on the road?
“Is there anything absolutely strategic that goes into it? Not really,” Suns football boss Wayne Campbell told this masthead.
“We’re probably spending more time trying to work out why we’re not playing well away, as opposed to why we’re playing well at home.
“There’s an element of travel, of not sleeping in your own bed, of unfamiliarity versus familiarity – does that help you? You would have to say yes.
“It feels like Darwin (6-0 record over three years) has grown legs a bit. People are now saying, ‘Gee, you wouldn’t want to play Gold Coast up there’. I don’t know whether we’re at that level for People First Stadium just yet.
“We want to do it. We will publicly state we want to do it. But there’s not too many strategic initiatives behind it, other than making sure we put our best foot forward in front of our home crowd.”
Winning matches at home has many tangible benefits. The obvious one is the season win-loss column. But for the Suns in particular, playing good footy at Carrara is crucial to the club’s key objective of growing the game in Queensland.
Sunday’s clash with Essendon is nearing a sellout. The Suns anticipate 3-4 games this season will eclipse 20,000 spectators, which would be a first for the club.
Like most clubs, Gold Coast is less concerned about what is working and more with what isn’t. In the Suns’ case it is their away form, which is 0-5 this season.
The last time they won away from People First Stadium or Darwin was the 70-point demolition of West Coast at Optus Stadium in round 9 last year – now more than 12 months ago. That is 12 consecutive road defeats.
While last season’s form has little bearing on the Suns this year under a new coach in Hardwick, Campbell says the club is actively seeking answers on why such a gulf between its home and away performances has appeared.
“It sounds really simple but we set out to win our games at home and play really well and competitively away. We’ve been able to do the first part but haven’t managed to do the second part,” he said.
“Is (away form) an issue? Yes. We have played some good teams, but we probably haven’t given ourselves the best possible chance. It’s something we will address without becoming obsessed with it.
“We’re certainly not putting our head in the sand saying it’s not something we should explore. But that will be more of a focus next week given we travel to play St Kilda, as opposed to this week when we are at home.”
While winning at home can help you crack the top eight, earning victories on the road is often what separates the best from the rest.
WHICH TEAMS PERFORM BEST AT HOME AND ON THE ROAD?
With much of the competitive balance talk centred on the impact of travel, particularly for interstate clubs, we took a deep dive into which sides performed best in their home state, interstate and where the biggest gaps are.
Why the state-by-state separation and not just home versus away? Because with the added context of Gather Round and clubs selling home games to different locations, to name a few factors, the true competitive home-ground advantage by the numbers can be skewed.
Of course given 10 clubs are based in Victoria, those sides will play a majority of matches in their own state.
The South Australian and West Australian clubs both share a home ground and split the home versus away, which gives them an extra game in their own states, though that competitive advantage is minimised somewhat by playing an intrastate rival.
In New South Wales and Queensland each side has its own home ground, making for a more established home advantage and away disadvantage, albeit with less of a travel impact than a road trip interstate would present.
For teams who play home games outside of their own state, like the Suns in Darwin and North Melbourne in Tasmania, those numbers factor into their interstate form.
Geelong has the unique circumstance of splitting home games between two venues (GMHBA and the MCG) within the same state.
From 2021-present, Collingwood has played the most matches (63) in its home state of any club and thus the fewest outside of Victoria (21).
Conversely, GWS has made the most interstate trips (57) followed by Gold Coast and Sydney (45) and then Brisbane (40).
Since 2021, Victorian sides have travelled marginally better than interstate sides, winning 43.7% of games outside of their home state compared to 42.9% for interstate teams.
Melbourne is the best-travelled team in the AFL over the past three-and-a-half seasons, winning 72.4% of its games outside of Victoria.
Port Adelaide (61.1%), Sydney (60%) and Collingwood (60%) round out the top four.
Four of the 10 Victorian clubs boast winning records, while only Port Adelaide and Sydney win more games than they lose on the road from the interstate clubs.
To the surprise of nobody, West Coast (13.5%) and North Melbourne (14.7%) are the worst travellers in the AFL since the start of 2021.
Even with the Suns’ 6-0 record in Darwin counting towards their interstate figures, they still boast the fifth-worst winning percentage on the road.
Interstate sides on balance boast a greater advantage playing in their home states compared to Victorian clubs, winning 58.5 per cent compared to 52.1%.
As expected, Brisbane and Geelong are the clear best teams over the past three-and-a-half years in their home states. But how they got there is a little different.
The Lions of course have a dominant record at the Gabba. But they have also enjoyed a 2-1 winning record against the Suns at People First Stadium over that period.
The Cats meanwhile have had to graft more wins against fellow Victorian rivals away from Kardinia Park to bolster their numbers.
North Melbourne has averaged one win per year in Victoria, albeit with half of season 2024 still to play out.
Hawthorn and North Melbourne have both enjoyed fruitful partnerships with Tasmania since 2021 which have allowed them to win more games away from Victoria than at home.
Melbourne is the clear best travelling side in the AFL, also winning more games on the road than at home, even though the Demons rank No. 4 for wins in their own state.
Brisbane boasts the best home state record in the AFL but ranks No. 7 on the road, accounting for the biggest swing between home and away form of any side.
Chris Fagan’s team has not won more than six games on the road in any of his seasons in charge – proof of how difficult it is for even the best teams in the AFL to win away from home.
Victorian clubs account for the top six in home-away differential and seven of the top eight, with only Port Adelaide’s away record somewhat comparable to its form in South Australia compared to other interstate clubs.
Essendon and Carlton are the worst travelling Victorian teams when compared to their form at home.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Essendon is unbeaten in Victoria this year having only managed a 54 per cent win rate since the start of 2021. The Bombers and Sydney remain the only two sides unbeaten in their home states, and sit at the top of the ladder as a result.
The two Sydney clubs rank No. 1 and No. 3 on the road this season. It’s a continuation of form for the Swans, who have been strong travellers since the start of 2021, but the Giants are 5-2 outside of NSW this season including the crucial victory over the Cats in Geelong at the weekend.
Brisbane’s form drop-off in Queensland has been stark, from a 78.2 per cent winning rate to just 40 per cent this season.
Gold Coast meanwhile is trending in the other direction, winning 80 per cent of games in Queensland this season compared to its average of 48.4 per cent. That loss came against the Lions at the Gabba in round 8.
West Coast has the worst home versus away drop-off in the competition, winning 60 per cent of games in Western Australia but without a win away from home this season.
The Suns’ two wins in Darwin spare their blushes here, though they are otherwise winless on the road outside of their Northern Territory home away from home.
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Originally published as AFL home and away records: Where every club sits and why Gold Coast is emerging as the league’s new fortress
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