AFL Finals 2023: Every team’s top eight scenario explained

The race for the minor premiership, top two, top four and top eight are all still alive as the AFL season reaches a thrilling conclusion.

The race to the AFL Finals is heating up. Pictures: Getty

The race to the AFL finals could come down to the final kick of the minor round with every position in the top eight up for grabs with two rounds remaining.

Brisbane kept its minor premiership hopes alive with a win against Collingwood on Friday night, while 13 teams remain alive in the hunt for a postseason berth.

Here is every top eight scenario explained – including the match-ups for the first round of finals if they began today – with 17 games left on the schedule.

MINOR PREMIERSHIP

Collingwood (17 wins, five defeats, 123.2%) Remaining fixture: Essendon (MCG)

The Magpies have only won one of their past four games but remain in control of top spot. A win against Essendon next Friday night will deliver their first minor premiership since 2011.

Brisbane Lions (16-6, 123.2%) Remaining fixture: St Kilda (Home)

The Lions need one more Magpies slip-up and a win against the Saints to pinch top spot, but also have Port Adelaide pursuing them for second spot. Avoiding an away prelim will be key given Brisbane’s 3-3 record in Melbourne this season.

TOP FOUR

Port Adelaide (15-6, 111%) Remaining fixtures: Fremantle (Away), Richmond (Home)

The Power’s four-game losing streak from rounds 18-21 has left them needing Brisbane’s help to avoid starting the postseason on the road. Port hasn’t won at the Gabba since 2017.

Melbourne (14-7, 124%) Remaining fixtures: Hawthorn (MCG), Sydney (Away)

The Demons can lock up fourth spot with a win against the Hawks this weekend and given their strong percentage could move up the ladder if the Lions or Power open the door. But no one wants that, bring on a qualifying final against the Pies at the MCG.

TOP EIGHT

Carlton (12-8-1, 116.8%) Remaining fixtures: Gold Coast (Away), GWS (Home)

The Blues can secure their first finals berth since 2013 with one win from their remaining two games. It’s hard to see them moving from fifth and if results go as expected this week they could have nothing to play for in the final round. That unexpected twist could become critical in the race for the right.

St Kilda (12-9, 107%) Remaining fixtures: Geelong (Marvel), Brisbane (Away)

After being in top spot after round six and inside the top eight for the entire season, the Saints are suddenly on shaky ground. They need just one win to lock up a finals spot but are not favoured to win either of their remaining fixtures and also have a low percentage.

Sydney Swans (11-9-1, 112.1%) Remaining fixtures: Adelaide (Away), Melbourne (Home)

The Swans have ridden a five-game winning streak to seventh position but may need to stretch it to seven to ensure they don’t fall from a grand final to outside the finals in one season. That won’t be easy with the Crows and Demons on their schedule but both games are winnable.

Western Bulldogs (11-10, 108.5%) Remaining fixtures: West Coast (Home), Geelong (Away)

You can guarantee the Dogs will be in the eight on Sunday night with the easybeat Eagles visiting Marvel. But they may still need a win at the Cattery to stay there depending on other results.

Essendon (11-10, 99.1%) Remaining fixtures: Giants (Away), Collingwood (MCG)

The Bombers are chasing wins against the lower-ranked Giants and the out-of-form Magpies to feature in September. It’s not impossible but with Essendon’s ordinary percentage it could be all over as soon as today.

GWS Giants (11-10, 98.6%) Remaining fixtures: Essendon (Home), Carlton (Away)

The Giants-Bombers clash is one of three season-defining games this Saturday, along with the Saints-Cats and Crows-Swans contests. GWS’ finals hopes will lift dramatically if they can beat the Bombers and then have results leaving Carlton with nothing to play for in round 24.

Geelong (10-10-1, 117.5%) Remaining fixtures: St Kilda (Marvel), Western Bulldogs (Home)

Many are pencilling in two victories for the reigning premiers but they haven’t beaten two finals contenders in back-to-back weeks since rounds 6-8, so that may be premature.

Adelaide (10-11, 115.8%) Remaining fixtures: Sydney (Home), West Coast (Away)

It’s a pretty simple equation for the Crows – take care of the Swans at home, thump the Eagles and then hope other results fall their way. If results go as expected the Crows could find themselves sneaking up as high as seventh but it only takes one upset anywhere in the next fortnight to ruin it all.

Richmond (9-11-1, 93.1%) Remaining fixtures: North Melbourne (MCG), Port Adelaide (Away)

We’re including the Tigers because it’s mathematically possible but the odds are longer than a Dustin Martin drop punt.

LADDER

1. Collingwood – 68 points

2. Brisbane Lions – 64

3. Port Adelaide – 60

4. Melbourne – 56

5. Carlton – 50

6. St Kilda – 48

7. Sydney Swans – 46

8. Western Bulldogs – 44

9. Essendon – 44

10. GWS – 44

11. Geelong – 42

12. Adelaide – 40

13. Richmond – 38

14. Fremantle – 36

15. Gold Coast – 36

16. Hawthorn – 28

17. North Melbourne – 8

18. West Coast – 8

WEEK ONE FINALS MATCH-UPS

1. Collingwood v 4. Melbourne

2. Brisbane Lions v 3. Port Adelaide

5. Carlton v 8. Western Bulldogs

6. St Kilda v 7. Sydney

Originally published as AFL Finals 2023: Every team’s top eight scenario explained