AFL 2025: What history says about every club’s previous ladder position
Port Adelaide might have fell short in a preliminary final yet again last year, but history says they will bounce back in 2025. Here’s why.
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Good news for Fremantle fans – if you want to jump into the top eight the best place to start is 10th.
And if you want to hold a spot in the top four, it is better to have finished second than first, which will be music to the ears of Port Adelaide coach Ken Hinkley.
An analysis of ladder finishing positions since the AFL moved to its ‘weighted’ fixture before the 2014 season has shown that the 6-6-6 split on the season draw has helped some teams make the leap from the middle of the ladder.
When devising the season fixture, the AFL splits teams into three groups based on where they finished on the ladder, with those in the top third designed to have a tougher draw than the middle, with the bottom six teams supposed to be given the easiest run.
Slipping out of the middle third – as Gold Coast did in 2024 by finishing 13th – has proven to be of benefit rather than finishing 12th.
The average finishing position for teams who finished 13th the year before has been 10.4 over the last 11 seasons, a better average than those sitting in 12th (11.3).
At the time of the introduction of the weighted fixture, then AFL footy boss Simon Lethlean said the draw “looks on paper to be the fairest we’ve had”.
Richmond famously ran all the way up the ladder in 2017 to win the premiership after finishing 13th the year before and Collingwood made it to the grand final a year later from 13th
The only finalists from 2024 the Suns will face twice this year are Brisbane and GWS, giving little excuse to finally earn a maiden finals berth.
Finishing 10th has proven to be the most fruitful place to jump into the eight.
In the last 11 seasons, seven sides have jumped from 10th to the finals.
Teams that finish 10th have an average finishing position the next year of 7.5.
That is clearly better than the two teams on the back end of the top third, with those who finish fifth holding an average the next year of 9.6 and sixth of 8.4.
The Dockers loaded up this off-season by landing Richmond difference maker Shai Bolton in a trade and the ex-Tiger is hopeful of being the icing on the cake of a powerful midfield.
And with coach Justin Longmuir entering the final year of his contract, the time to win is now.
The Power fell in a preliminary final last year but enter 2025 in pole position – teams that finished second have the best average finishing position the next year with 4.8.
That is better than the minor premiers (6.5), those in third (5.5) and fourth (5).
Only one team in the last 11 seasons has missed the eight after finishing second the year before, which was Port Adelaide in 2022.
The last two minor premiers – Geelong and Collingwood – failed to make finals at all the year after.
Unsurprisingly, those at the bottom struggle to climb even with a fixture boost.
Despite getting a favourable draw, the team that finishes 18th has not finished higher than 14th the following year since Essendon was granted its players back in 2017 after the drugs ban and promptly finished seventh.
No other team since 2014 has gotten close to the finals after finishing last.
Recent history does not bode well for the hopes of winning the flag after not playing finals the year before.
But finishing 16th has been fruitful, with Sydney, GWS and Hawthorn all coming from there to make finals within the last four years.
West Coast landed at 16th in 2024.
Only two teams – Richmond in 2017 and Melbourne in 2021 – have claimed the silverware in the last 11 seasons after finishing outside of the finals the year before.
Both those clubs had played multiple finals series before those breakthrough flags.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, teams that finish in the top three on the ladder have had the most premiership success the year after, with top three teams having won six of the 11 flags.
Sydney, Port Adelaide and Geelong held those three spots in 2024 but Brisbane ($7) and Hawthorn ($8) are favoured by Ladbrokes to win it all this year.
No team since 2014 has won the premiership a year after finishing where the Lions (fifth) and Hawks (seventh).
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