AFL 2023: Every team’s remaining fixture ranked from hardest to easiest
The race for the wooden spoon looks set to come down to the wire in 2023. What will separate the AFL’s three strugglers? See who has the hardest and easiest draw.
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With nine rounds done, attention turns to the rest of the season and how each teams’ remaining fixture matches up with the rest.
Who has the easiest draw and who has a tough fixture from here?
Port Adelaide has the hardest run home according to Champion Data’s formula, followed by Geelong and Brisbane – and Carlton fans won’t find much relief looking at these rankings.
At the other end of the scale, Essendon has the easiest fixture of any team and St Kilda has every chance to hang on to its top eight spot.
Here are the full rankings – from most difficult to least challenging run home – and expert analysis.
1. PORT ADELAIDE
R10: Melbourne (Adelaide Oval)
R11: Richmond (MCG)
R12: Hawthorn (Adelaide Oval)
R13: Western Bulldogs (Marvel Stadium)
R14: Geelong (Adelaide Oval)
R15: BYE
R16: Essendon (MCG)
R17: Gold Coast (Adelaide Oval)
R18: Carlton (Marvel Stadium)
R19: Collingwood (Adelaide Oval)
R20: Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
R21: Geelong (GMHBA Stadium)
R22: GWS (Adelaide Oval)
R23: Fremantle (Optus Stadium)
R24: Richmond (Adelaide Oval)
Over the next month, Port has the eleventh most difficult stretch.
Overall though, it is a tough run home. There are just two games remaining against the bottom four – the fewest in the competition. The Power also play four games against teams ranked 5th–8th and two games against the current top four, including another clash with ladder leader Collingwood.
2. GEELONG
R10: Fremantle (Optus Stadium)
R11: GWS (GMHBA)
R12: Western Bulldogs (Marvel Stadium)
R13: BYE
R14: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
R15: Melbourne (GMHBA Stadium)
R16: Sydney Swans (SCG)
R17: North Melbourne (GMHBA)
R18: Essendon (GMHBA)
R19: Brisbane (Gabba)
R20: Fremantle (GMHBA)
R21: Port Adelaide (GMHBA)
R22: Collingwood (MCG)
R23: St Kilda (Marvel Stadium)
R24: Western Bulldogs (GMHBA)
The next two weeks for the Cats present an ideal opportunity to bounce back after losing to Richmond. The stretch after that is decidedly tougher. They have five games remaining against teams currently inside the top four, including a date with the Lions at the Gabba.
The Cats’ five matches against top-four teams is the equal-most in the competition, although is offset somewhat by seven more games at home.
3. BRISBANE LIONS
R10: Gold Coast (Gabba)
R11: Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
R12: BYE
R13: Hawthorn (MCG)
R14: Sydney Swans (Gabba)
R15: St Kilda (Marvel Stadium)
R16: Richmond (Gabba)
R17: West Coast Eagles (Gabba)
R18: Melbourne (MCG)
R19: Geelong (Gabba)
R20: Gold Coast (Heritage Bank Stadium)
R21: Fremantle (Optus Stadium)
R22: Adelaide (Gabba)
R23: Collingwood (Marvel Stadium)
R24: St Kilda (Gabba)
The Lions face difficult assignments outside of Queensland. Their last three games at home also promise to be tricky. They have the most games against teams ranked 5th-8th with five, with these matches crucial in deciding who makes the top four.
Brisbane has only two games against the current top four, but only three more games against the current bottom four.
4. FREMANTLE
R10: Geelong (Optus Stadium)
R11: Melbourne (MCG)
R12: BYE
R13: Richmond (Optus Stadium)
R14: GWS (GIANTS Stadium)
R15: Essendon (Optus Stadium)
R16: Western Bulldogs (Marvel Stadium)
R17: Carlton (Optus Stadium)
R18: Collingwood (MCG)
R19: Sydney Swans (Optus Stadium)
R20: Geelong (GMHBA Stadium)
R21: Brisbane (Optus Stadium)
R22: West Coast (Optus Stadium)
R23: Port Adelaide (Optus Stadium)
R24: Hawthorn (MCG)
The Dockers will need to carry the confidence from two straight wins forward into the next two games. The fixture beyond that doesn’t get easier with four games against the current top-four teams and three matches against teams ranked 5th-8th from round 10 onwards.
The Dockers do have the benefit of playing four more games against the current bottom four, including a second Western Derby.
5. CARLTON
R10: Collingwood (MCG)
R11: Sydney Swans (SCG)
R12: Melbourne (MCG)
R13: Essendon (MCG)
R14: Gold Coast (MCG)
R15: BYE
R16: Hawthorn (MCG)
R17: Fremantle (Optus Stadium)
R18: Port Adelaide (Marvel)
R19: West Coast Eagles (Marvel)
R20: Collingwood (MCG)
R21: St Kilda (Marvel)
R22: Melbourne (MCG)
R23: Gold Coast (Heritage Bank Stadium)
R24: GWS (Marvel Stadium)
The Blues face a brutal run of matches into the bye. In fact, their next month is
rated the second-hardest in terms of match-ups. Their run home overall is also tough, with an equal competition-high five games against the current top four.
They do get four more games against the bottom four, with another clash against West Coast – who they hammered by 108 points three weeks ago – among them. They also play four games against teams around them on the ladder in the 9th-13th range.
6. GOLD COAST
R10: Brisbane (Gabba)
R11: Western Bulldogs (TIO Stadium)
R12: Adelaide (TIO Stadium)
R13: BYE
R14: Carlton (MCG)
R15: Hawthorn (Heritage Bank Stadium)
R16: Collingwood (Heritage Bank Stadium)
R17: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
R18: St Kilda (Heritage Bank Stadium)
R19: GWS (Manuka Oval)
R20: Brisbane (Heritage Bank Stadium)
R21: Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
R22: Sydney Swans (SCG)
R23: Carlton (Heritage Bank Stadium)
R24: North Melbourne (Blundstone Arena)
Gold Coast has won three out of its last four, just in time for the Suns to have the third-hardest stretch over the next month. Overall, they have more games to come against teams currently inside the top eight than outside it on the run home, with eight games against the current top eight and only six against the current bottom ten.
On the bright side, their run home is a mix of games they should win and genuine 50-50 contests. Two games against Carlton could be massive.
7. HAWTHORN
R10: West Coast (UTAS Stadium)
R11: St Kilda (Marvel Stadium)
R12: Port Adelaide (Adelaide)
R13: Brisbane (MCG)
R14: BYE
R15: Gold Coast (Heritage Bank Stadium)
R16: Carlton (MCG)
R17: GWS (GIANTS Stadium)
R18: North Melbourne (Marvel Stadium)
R19: Richmond (MCG)
R20: St Kilda (Marvel Stadium)
R21: Collingwood (MCG)
R22: Western Bulldogs (UTAS Stadium)
R23: Melbourne (MCG)
R24: Fremantle (MCG)
The Hawks have an even seven games against teams inside the top eight and seven games against teams in the bottom ten. They play only three games against the other bottom three teams and face four tricky games against the current top-four sides.
Considering their position on the ladder and their young list, the Hawks have a tough run home. The good news for the Hawks is that most of their remaining matches are either in Melbourne or Launceston, with just three played elsewhere.
8. GWS GIANTS
R10: St Kilda (GIANTS Stadium)
R11: Geelong (GMHBA)
R12: Richmond (GIANTS Stadium)
R13: North Melbourne (Blundstone Arena)
R14: Fremantle (GIANTS Stadium)
R15: BYE
R16: Melbourne (TIO Traeger Park)
R17: Hawthorn (GIANTS Stadium)
R18: Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
R19: Gold Coast (Manuka Oval)
R20: Western Bulldogs (Mars Stadium)
R21: Sydney Swans ((GIANTS Stadium)
R22: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
R23: Essendon (GIANTS Stadium)
R24: Carlton (Marvel Stadium)
The Giants have both the eighth-most difficult run over the next month and over the entirety of their remaining matches. They play nine games against teams ranked 5th–13th, with five of those sitting just outside the eight between 9th and 13th. They only have two matches against the current top four.
Their next two games are tough. After that there are three games the Giants could realistically win.
9. SYDNEY
R10: North Melbourne (Marvel)
R11: Carlton (SCG)
R12: BYE
R13: St Kilda (SCG)
R14: Brisbane (Gabba)
R15: West Coast (SCG)
R16: Geelong (SCG)
R17: Richmond (MCG)
R18: Western Bulldogs (SCG)
R19: Fremantle (Optus Stadium)
R20: Essendon (Marvel)
R21: GWS (GIANTS Stadium)
R22: Gold Coast (SCG)
R23: Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
R24: Melbourne (SCG)
Perhaps the only good news for the Swans at the moment is that their fixture opens up quite a bit in the second half of the year. They have the ninth-hardest remaining fixture, with games against North Melbourne and West Coast to come, as well as six games against teams sitting just outside the eight.
They only play three games against the bottom four on the ladder, but they also only play two games against the top four.
10. MELBOURNE
R10: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
R11: Fremantle (MCG)
R12: Carlton (MCG)
R13: Collingwood (MCG)
R14: BYE
R15: Geelong (GMHBA Stadium)
R16: GWS (TIO Traeger Park)
R17: St Kilda (Marvel Stadium)
R18: Brisbane (MCG)
R19: Adelaide (MCG)
R20: Richmond (MCG)
R21: North Melbourne (Blundstone Arena)
R22: Carlton (MCG)
R23: Hawthorn (MCG)
R24: Sydney Swans (SCG)
Things are looking good fixture-wise for Melbourne, with eight of the Demons’ remaining 14 games against teams currently sitting outside the top eight. They play just three games against current top-four teams, with two of those to be played at the MCG.
Their next few weeks are really tough. From round 16 onwards, however, they have a great run of favourable match-ups. After round 10 onwards they have four games against the current bottom four.
11. NORTH MELBOURNE
R10: Sydney Swans (Marvel Stadium)
R11: Collingwood (Marvel Stadium)
R12: Essendon (Marvel Stadium)
R13: GWS (Blundstone Arena)
R14: Western Bulldogs (Marvel Stadium)
R15: BYE
R16: Adelaide (Adelaide Oval).
R17: Geelong (GMHBA)
R18: Hawthorn (Marvel Stadium)
R19: St Kilda (Marvel Stadium)
R20: West Coast (Optus Stadium)
R21: Melbourne (Blundstone Arena)
R22: Essendon (Marvel Stadium)
R23: Richmond (MCG)
R24: Gold Coast (Blundstone Arena)
Some good news for North fans – the Kangaroos face only two teams currently in the top four in their remaining matches. While they play four games against the other bottom-four teams, the Roos also play four games against teams ranked 5th-8th.
12. WEST COAST
R10: Hawthorn (UTAS Stadium)
R11: Essendon (Optus)
R12: Collingwood (Optus)
R13: Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
R14: BYE
R15: Sydney Swans (SCG)
R16: St Kilda (Optus)
R17: Brisbane (Gabba)
R18: Richmond (Optus)
R19: Carlton (Marvel)
R20: North Melbourne (Optus)
R21: Essendon (Marvel)
R22: Fremantle (Optus)
R23: Western Bulldogs (Marvel)
R24: Adelaide (Optus)
The Eagles play just two games against current top-four teams for the rest of the year. However, they only play three games against the other bottom-four sides, which shape as their most realistic chances of grabbing a second win.
This week against the Hawks is their best hope for a breakthrough victory before a tough run of games leading into the bye in round 14. Things don’t get much easier for the Eagles after that, either, with four games in a row against top-eight contenders.
13. COLLINGWOOD
R10: Carlton (MCG)
R11: North Melbourne (Marvel Stadium)
R12: West Coast (Optus Stadium)
R13: Melbourne (MCG)
R14: BYE
R15: Adelaide (MCG)
R16: Gold Coast (Heritage Bank Stadium)
R17: Western Bulldogs (Marvel)
R18: Fremantle (MCG)
R19: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
R20: Carlton (MCG)
R21: Hawthorn (MCG)
R22: Geelong (MCG)
R23: Brisbane (Marvel)
R24: Essendon (MCG)
The good news keeps on coming for Collingwood, with the Pies set to face the sixth-easiest fixture over the next month and the third-easiest run home. The Pies play five games against teams ranked 9th-13th on the ladder while also facing eight teams currently sitting outside the top eight.
They play three games apiece against teams inside the top four and teams ranked 5th -8th. Perhaps the most pleasing aspect for Collingwood fans is that they’ve built their 8-1 win-loss record without playing any of the bottom three teams in the competition yet.
14. ADELAIDE
R10: Western Bulldogs (Mars)
R11: Brisbane (Adelaide Oval)
R12: Gold Coast (TIO Stadium)
R13: West Coast (Adelaide Oval)
R14: BYE
R15: Collingwood (MCG)
R16: North Melbourne (Adelaide Oval)
R17: Essendon (Marvel)
R18: GWS (Adelaide Oval)
R19: Melbourne (MCG)
R20: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
R21: Gold Coast (Adelaide Oval)
R22: Brisbane (Gabba)
R23: Sydney Swans (Adelaide Oval)
R24: West Coast (Optus Stadium)
The Crows have the fifth-easiest remaining fixture overall and the sixth-easiest stretch over the next month, although they do play five games against the current top-four sides, equal most in the competition.
Outside a second Showdown – always a 50-50 game – the Crows play only one game against a team currently sitting 5th–8th. They have five games to come against the current bottom four.
15. RICHMOND
R10: Essendon (MCG)
R11: Port Adelaide (MCG)
R12: GWS (GIANTS Stadium)
R13: Fremantle (Optus Stadium)
R14: St Kilda (MCG)
R15: BYE
R16: Brisbane (Gabba)
R17: Sydney Swans (MCG)
R18: West Coast (Optus)
R19: Hawthorn (MCG)
R20: Melbourne (MCG)
R21: Western Bulldogs (Marvel)
R22: St Kilda (Marvel)
R23: North Melbourne (MCG)
R24: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
The Tigers have found some form just as the fixture opens up for them. They have five remaining games against teams currently inside the bottom four, which is ranked equal-third across the competition for clashes against the league’s stragglers.
They have four matches against the current top four and two difficult match-ups at Marvel Stadium, a venue they struggle at.
16. WESTERN BULLDOGS
R10: Adelaide (Mars)
R11: Gold Coast (TIO Stadium)
R12: Geelong (Marvel)
R13: Port Adelaide (Marvel)
R14: North Melbourne (Marvel)
R15: BYE
R16: Fremantle (Marvel)
R17: Collingwood (Marvel)
R18: Sydney Swans (SCG)
R19: Essendon (Marvel)
R20: GWS (Mars)
R21: Richmond (Marvel)
R22: Hawthorn (UTAS Stadium)
R23: West Coast (Marvel)
R24: Geelong (GMHBA)
The Bulldogs have a massive nine games to come against teams currently in the bottom 10 on the ladder, equal-second for most games against teams currently outside the top eight. They play only two games against current top-four teams, with both of those games at Marvel Stadium. Their last game will be tough, but the stretch before that game is extremely favourable.
17. ST KILDA
R10: GWS (GIANTS Stadium)
R11: Hawthorn (Marvel Stadium)
R12: BYE
R13: Sydney Swans (SCG)
R14: Richmond (MCG)
R15: Brisbane (Marvel Stadium)
R16: West Coast (Optus Stadium)
R17: Melbourne (Marvel Stadium)
R18: Gold Coast (Heritage Bank Stadium)
R19: North Melbourne (Marvel Stadium)
R20: Hawthorn (Marvel Stadium)
R21: Carlton (Marvel Stadium)
R22: Richmond (Marvel Stadium)
R23: Geelong (Marvel Stadium)
R24: Brisbane (Gabba)
A poor loss against Adelaide doesn’t look so bad when one looks at St Kilda’s remaining fixture. They have 10 games against teams sitting outside the top eight and only three games against teams currently inside the top four.
The Saints play just one game against teams ranked 5th–8th, and that is at Marvel Stadium. After round 16 they only leave Marvel twice for trips to the Gold Coast and Brisbane. They also have four games to come against the worst three teams in the competition.
18. ESSENDON
R10: Richmond (MCG)
R11: West Coast (Optus)
R12: North Melbourne (Marvel)
R13: Carlton (MCG)
R14: BYE
R15: Fremantle (Optus)
R16: Port Adelaide (MCG)
R17: Adelaide (Marvel)
R18: Geelong (GMHBA)
R19: Western Bulldogs (Marvel)
R20: Sydney Swans (Marvel)
R21: West Coast (Marvel)
R22: North Melbourne (Marvel Stadium)
R23: GWS (GIANTS Stadium)
R24: Collingwood (MCG)
The Bombers are on a four-game slide after having played five top-eight teams in a row, including all of the current top four. The good news for the Bombers is that they play just two more games against top-four teams for the rest of the season, and both of them are in Melbourne.
They have nine games to come against teams currently outside the top eight, including six against the bottom-four teams, which is equal-most in the competition. They also only travel once outside of Victoria after round 15.
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