Real estate: Tasmania’s recession-proof suburbs

Slipping home prices mean the road out of the COVID-19 recession could be a bumpy one for homeowners and house hunters — but these are the suburbs best placed to ride it out.

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Slipping home prices mean the road out of the coronavirus-enforced recession could be a bumpy one for Tasmanian homeowners and house hunters but there are five suburbs best placed to ride it out.

Dodges Ferry, Rokeby and Oakdowns in Hobart and Launceston’s Waverley, Launceston and East Launceston were among our best performing suburbs for the three years following the Global Financial Crisis.

>> Scroll to the bottom to see which 10 Hobart and Launceston suburbs are predicted to have the best growth in 2021 and beyond

They are among the locations in a good position to rise in value again following the 2020 pandemic.

However, although there are some similarities between the period after the GFC and now, there are also different conditions which will likely give a boost to other suburbs, according to one of Australia’s foremost property experts.

In data provided by CoreLogic, the above suburbs and North Hobart, Mount Stuart, Grindelwald and Deloraine enjoyed the greatest rise in Tasmanian median dwelling values in the three years after the GFC from December 2008 to December 2011.

“After the GFC, interest rates were coming down from higher levels, but we can’t do that now, so we won’t see the stimulating factor of interest rates falling because they are already super low,” said CoreLogic Head of Research Tim Lawless, who has nominated the Hobart suburbs he believes have the greatest potential for growth in 2021 and beyond.

“Where the similarity is much more appropriate is that it was a time when there was a lot of stimulus in the market — particularly for first home buyers — and that’s something we should expect going forward.”

“Like the period following the GFC, 2021 is likely to be characterised by heightened uncertainty at least through the first half of the year, as fiscal support is gradually wound back and borrowers experiencing stress in their mortgage repayments return to paying down their debt or look for other ways to reduce their debt, such as selling assets.”

Oliver Beswick and Courtney Dowling moved in to a new home at Oakdowns. Picture Chris Kidd

Despite prices falling in three of seven months so far this year, Hobart and regional Tasmania have significantly outperformed the rest of the national housing market over the past five years and Mr Lawless said the state was again set to be an outlier in the coming years.

“Hobart is a bit different [to other capital cities] – first homebuyer demand has historically been low,” he said.

“The strongest areas are likely to be those attractive to more mature aged interstate migrants which offer up lifestyle advantages along with proximity to the coastline and/or views and within proximity to Hobart.”

These are the Hobart suburbs Mr Lawless believes will experience the best growth in 2021 and beyond.

Kingston Beach

Median house value: $569,151

“With a median house value less than $570k, Kingston Beach is one the most affordable riverside suburbs along the lower western stretch of the Derwent.”

Blackmans Bay

Median house value: $596,598

“Similar to Kingston Beach, this suburb offers up relatively affordable price points for a riverside suburb.”

Taroona

Median house value: $714,908

“Adjacent to Sandy Bay, but with a median house value that is more than $300,000 lower.”

Sandy Bay

Median house value: $1,019,626

One of the most expensive suburbs of Hobart, but likely to appeal to cashed up interstate migrants. A broad range of amenity and facilities are close by, together with high quality housing and a riverside position.

Battery Point

Median house value: $1,114,460

Similar to Sandy Bay. Likely to attract wealthy upgraders and downsizers.