Geelong house prices: What your home could be worth in 2029

Up and coming Geelong suburbs could see the biggest gains in value in the next five years, new analysis reveals. See what could happen to prices in your area.

If history repeats itself, homes like 47 Sheepwash Rd, Barwon Heads, could be in for a very bright future.

Geelong and its surrounding towns could be set for six-figure home-price surges that would add nine more to the region’s million-dollar club by 2029.

PropTrack analysis of home value growth for the past five years shows a repeat performance would add at least $99,000 to every suburb and town in the Geelong region.

Barwon Heads, Lorne and Anglesea led the charge over the past five years with up to 83 per cent growth. And the figures show each would gain at least $1m if history repeats itself.

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Geelong’s suburbs could also be set for major gains, with East Geelong, Bell Park and Hamlyn Heights in the running to gain anywhere from $234,000 to $302,000 if the region’s housing market doubled-down on past gains.

The data combines house and unit values for a unified dwelling price across the suburbs, while this produces a lower overall median price than house prices alone, it boosts the amount of data being considered to reduce variability.

There are just six suburbs across the region with a million-dollar median dwelling price today.

But by 2029 there could be nine more including Port Arlington, Manifold Heights, Highton and West Geelong.

PropTrack economist Paul Ryan said Geelong had been a major beneficiary of the pandemic’s change in lifestyle preferences, driving home price gains until recently.

“Though it has done a better job of building homes, so values haven’t increased as much as elsewhere,” Mr Ryan said.

Noting that the data was not a forecast, the economist said slow wage growth and compressed borrowing capacity would have many hoping the data did not repeat.

Homes like 3 Scammell Crescent, Torquay, could have a bright future if price growth from the past five years matches up with the next five.

The prospect of a price rise could be beneficial for buyers considering homes like 35 Sydenham Ave, Manifold Heights.

“If these figures came to pass it would represent a deterioration of affordability conditions for first home buyers,” Mr Ryan warned.

But the Geelong Agency auctioneer Mitchell Falzon said Geelong home prices had a proven history of reliable growth making it likely the “safe investment” was “likely to do it again”.

He said the prospect of interest rate cuts and buyers now coming from as far away as Melbourne to get their kids into Geelong’s best schools boosted the odds of future home value growth.

16 Avon St, Geelong West, has just hit the market and could be worth $1.4m-$1.54m about four years after it last sold for a third of the price.

16 Avon St, Geelong West, before its renovation.

While he wasn’t sure when the region’s next boom would kick off, he said renovated residences would be at the centre of it — with the prospect updated homes hitting the market today could raise values just on the quality of work.

And Brady and Laura Lane could be at the forefront of a renovation revolution for the city’s suburbs, with the pair recently updating a Geelong West miner’s cottage that sold as a $516,500 boarded-up wreck in 2020 that could be worth $1m more today.

16 Avon St, Geelong West, gives an idea of the kind of renovations that could lie ahead.

Better bathrooms with style-focused design could be a product of rising home values.

Mr Lane said they had done everything from slide the entire house forward three metres to bringing in award-winning architect Tim Adams, initially fearing they had “gone in too deep” on the renovation but increasingly confident the 16 Avon St home they have loved living in since completing work on it matched up as one of the suburb’s best.

Hayeswinckle director Michelle Winckle said prices in many parts of Geelong had recently been suppressed as a high number of landlords sold up, making predictions for the near future “very difficult”.

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Originally published as Geelong house prices: What your home could be worth in 2029