Listed: What Adelaide, SA homes will be worth in 2029

Ever wondered what your home could be worth in five years? A new report has provided a glimpse into the state’s future and what it shows is pretty frightening for budding home buyers.

After decades of slow and steady value growth, South Australian homes have finally had their moment in the sun, experiencing record increases over the past five years.

But what would the real estate landscape look like if that growth was repeated over the next five years?

PropTrack have crunched the numbers and, to be honest, they’re pretty frightening.

According to the figures, which PropTrack say are not a forecast but simply a forward application of the percentage change since April 2019, if the past five year’s growth – 56 per cent – is repeated, Adelaide’s median house price in 2029 would be more than $1.143m.

The median house value has climbed from $470,000 to $733,000 between April 2019 and April this year.

If history repeats, Adelaide’s median unit price would be tipped to skyrocket too.

In 2019 it was sitting at $350,000 and now it’s $485,000, an increase of 39 per cent.

Casting that growth forward, units could be worth $672,071 – more than median-priced houses were worth five years ago.

Houses in regional SA – which have climbed 51 per cent from a $271,750 median to $410,000 over the past five years – would be worth $618,583 if this growth is repeated.

Regional unit prices could also soar and be worth $490,122 if they mirror the growth seen over the past five years where their median went from just $271,750 to their current $410,000.

Adelaide house prices could reach new hights by 2029, according to a new PropTrack report. Picture: Stephen Brookes

PropTrack senior economist Paul Ryan said the data showed the “huge lift” in property values during a tumultuous time in the world (Covid) and interest rates at “emergency low” levels.

“We’ve looked at current median prices across all suburbs and then extrapolated forward what prices would look like if we saw the same experience over the past five years,” Mr Ryan said. “These are not forecasts, but it’s a good thought exercise in understanding why what we’ve seen over the past five years was so exceptional.”

Looking at median combined dwelling prices – which includes both houses and units – Elizabeth North in Adelaide’s north could be tipped for the greatest increase if history repeats.

The median dwelling price in the suburb has increased by 131 per cent – from $175,000 to $405,000 over the past five years.

If that growth continues on the same trajectory that median price would increase to a staggering $937,000 in 2029.

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Neighbouring Elizabeth Downs and Elizabeth South were set for the next largest growth of 125 per cent and 120 per cent, taking their medians to $911,000 and $857,000 respectively.

According to the projection, there would be 191 suburbs in Adelaide with a median of more than $1m or more.

Edge Realty principal Mike Lao, who sells in Adelaide’s northern suburbs, said the growth over the past five years had been “crazy”.

“It has been the biggest boom in 30 years, which has been great, but it has settled down a bit now,” he said.

“We were underpriced and such good value, and the secret is out now.”

“Nobody would have predicted a boom like this, and I think the growth will continue, but at a more measured rate.”

Mr Lao said interest rates being significantly higher than they were five years ago was naturally curtailing value growth.

“I couldn’t fathom median prices being more than $930,000 in the north – nobody would be able to afford anything,” he said.

Christine Romano, 56, and her daughter Alex Jones, 28 at their home in Elizabeth North. Picture: Brett Hartwig

Factory worker Christine Romano, 56, bought in Elizabeth North in 2021 after renting in Davoren Park.

“I’d been renting for about 15 years and my mum said: “I’m sick of you spending your money on rent, I want you to buy a house,” she said.

“I’m glad I bought when I did – it’s an asset and I’d love to see it increase in value.”

Mr Ryan said Adelaide’s affordable north had been a star performer over the past five years.

“You can clearly see the push towards affordability has really benefited Adelaide, Perth and Brisbane,” he said.

“During the pandemic, people realised how cheap Adelaide was for the lifestyle you receive. “There’s still a lot to play out in the relative affordability of Adelaide.

“It’s up 14 per cent over the past year.”

But Mr Ryan said it was unlikely the same pace of price growth would continue over the next five years.

“Although prices have been growing this year, we’ve seen a slow down in price growth to a more predictable level unlike what we saw in 2021 and 2022,” he said.

“We’ll still see prices increasing over the next 12 months to two years because of the demand versus supply story and expectations that interest rates will fall maybe early to mid next year. “Rates are still relatively high though, so we’re likely to see slightly below average growth over the next couple of years.

“If these figures came to pass it would represent a deterioration of affordability conditions for first home buyers.”

Originally published as Listed: What Adelaide, SA homes will be worth in 2029