What betting markets predict for US election

Odds are getting shorter in key betting markets for the presidential election, with punters still backing one unusual outcome. Find out where the money is going.

An overall victory for Donald Trump, but Kamala Harris winning the popular vote: that’s the likely outcome of the US Presidential election, at least according to Australian betting agencies.

That split outcome would be a virtual repeat of the 2016 election result, when Hillary Clinton won more votes than Donald Trump but did not carry the Electoral College needed to claim the presidency.

But historically speaking, such an outcome remains a rarity in US politics, having happened only five times before: in 2016 and in 2000 (when Al Gore lost to George W Bush), and three times in the nineteenth century.

On Tuesday, Australian betting agencies were shortening their odds on a Donald Trump victory, with Sportsbet and the TAB offering $1.62 and Betfair offering $1.69 – in all cases, down about 10 cents on what they were offering on Monday.

At the same time, Betfair was offering the longest odds on a Kamala Harris victory, at $2.44, while Sportsbet was offering $2.32 and the TAB was offering $2.25.

These odds were up between 15 and 22 cents on what they were paying on Monday.

Republican presidential nominee, former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at Kinston Regional Jetport on November 3, 2024 in Kinston, North Carolina. Picture: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

But when it comes to the popular vote (the total number that a candidate receives), Harris is still the clear favourite with punters, with Sportsbet and TAB offering $1.28 and Ladbrokes offering $1.25 – only slightly changed from 24 hours earlier.

Sportsbet is offering odds of $3.75 for a Trump win in the popular vote, while TAB has him at $3.60 and Ladbrokes had him at $4.00, as 1pm AEDT on Monday.

Democratic presidential nominee, US Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally at Jenison Field House on the Michigan State University campus on November 3, in Lansing, Michigan. Picture: Scott Olson/Getty Images

With regards to the swing states, Sportsbet have the Democrats as favourites to pick up Wisconsin and Michigan, and the Republicans prevailing in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.

In ultra-marginal Pennsylvania the odds on Sportsbet had changed considerably. On Monday the agency was offering $1.88 for a Trump win and $1.92 for a Harris victory, but as of Tuesday the odds for the Democrats had blown out to $2.08, while for the Republicans they had tightened to $1.75.

And despite a recent poll suggesting an upset win for Harris in Iowa was likely, betting agencies still have Republicans as favourites. For that midwestern state, TAB is paying $1.22 for a Republican victory and $4.00 for the Democrats, while Sportsbet has the Republicans on $1.18 and the Democrats on a hefty $4.40.

Originally published as What betting markets predict for US election