US politics live: Donald Trump addresses growing fears that a recession is looming in the US

The warnings about America’s economy are getting louder, with several signs indicating it’s heading in completely the wrong direction.

Welcome to another week in US politics. Goodness, the news does keep rolling in, doesn’t it?

Donald Trump has declined to rule out the possibility of America entering a recession this year, as the markets continue to fret about his tariffs, and speculation that the US economy will contract in the first quarter keeps mounting.

Weak jobs data, released over the weekend, was not particularly reassuring.

And there are several other danger signs too, as laid out by economist Tej Parikh in The Financial Times today. Mr Parikh argues the American economy was already “weaker than many appreciated” before Mr Trump took office - and he’s now making it worse.

“Trumponomics has damped the outlook further by introducing stagflationary forces and financial market risks,” he writes, going on to note that “confidence has plunged”.

Mr Trump was asked directly about a possible recession during an interview with Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo.

“There are rising worries about a slowdown,” said Ms Bartiromo.

“Are you expecting a recession this year?”

“Umm, I hate to predict things like that,” Mr Trump responded after a pause.

“There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing.

“There are always periods of – it takes a little time. But I think it should be great for us.”

We must note that, in the past, Mr Trump has not been remotely shy about predicting recessions. He confidently claimed the US would endure not merely a recession, but a full-blown “depression” if his political opponent won in both 2020 and 2024.

This did not pan out after the former election; the US economy recorded GDP growth of more than 3 per cent, on average, during Joe Biden’s presidency. Of course, Americans still had to suffer through high inflation, which contributed to Mr Biden’s putrid approval ratings.

But he’s gone now, reading in some gazebo in Delaware, presumably. The markets have moved on to worrying about Mr Trump’s policies.

The President has repeatedly reaffirmed his intention to impose blanket “reciprocal tariffs” worldwide at the start of April. That involves adding up any factors the he believes put the US at a disadvantage in trade, such as existing tariffs from other nations, subsidies their governments give to certain industries, value-added taxes (like Australia’s GST), etc, and imposing a tariff to compensate for them.

It’s a monumental exercise; we’re talking about the calculation of a separate tariff rate for every product from every country. The bureaucratic work required is daunting. And that is without accounting for the effect these tariffs will have on America’s economy.

Mr Trump speaking to Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo. Her face is not ... giving zen? Is that a sentence? Is that how the young people talk now? Just an old man, here, struggling to stay relevant. Picture: Fox News

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick was more optimistic than the President when pressed about the threat of a recession during his own TV interview today.

“Consumer sentiment is dropping. Inflation has ticked up. Major banks like JP Morgan and Godman Sachs now say a recession in the next 12 months is becoming more likely. Should Americans brace for a recession?” NBC host Kristen Welker asked him.

“Absolutely not,” said Mr Lutnick.

“Anybody who bets against Donald Trump – it’s like, the same people who thought Donald Trump wasn’t a winner a year ago.

“Donald Trump is a winner. He’s going to win for the American people. That’s just the way it’s going to be. There’s going to be no recession in America.

“Donald Trump is bringing growth to America. I would never bet on a recession. No chance.”

Read on for the latest updates.

Originally published as US politics live: Donald Trump addresses growing fears that a recession is looming in the US