Tom Minear: Was January 6 the end of Donald Trump or only the beginning?

Donald Trump’s effort to overturn his 2020 defeat showed he was unfit to be president, and yet he faces charges not as a disgraced outcast, but as the 2024 Republican frontrunner.

Former US President Donald Trump. Picture: AFP.

There was a brief moment when, in the wake of Donald Trump’s supporters storming the Capitol, the United States could have moved on from him once and for all.

Democracy can only function if politicians accept the results of free and fair elections. By failing to do so, and instead trying to overturn his defeat without any evidence, Trump proved himself to be utterly unfit to sit in the Oval Office.

Two and a half years later, the former president is now about to be arrested and indicted over the events of January 6. But the man in the dock will not be a disgraced political outcast – he will be the Republican frontrunner for next year’s presidential election.

Former US President and 2024 presidential hopeful Donald Trump gestures after speaking at the Turning Point Action USA conference. Picture: AFP

While the nature of the charges is not yet known, the case against Trump is unlikely to alter what most Americans think of him. If anything, the looming federal indictment – along with a separate forthcoming prosecution in Georgia – will harden the belief among his supporters that he is a political martyr in the crosshairs of a witch hunt.

In April, when Trump was indicted over hush money he paid to a porn star, his poll numbers went up. Two months later, when he was indicted over his mishandling of classified documents, his lead in the race for the Republican nomination climbed again.

On one level, it is easy to see how Trump’s supporters rationalised the fact that he was the first president to face criminal charges. They think the Stormy Daniels case is a hit job by a partisan prosecutor, and the documents case is an unnecessary lot of fuss over some boxes.

As for January 6, given the fact that at least 60 per cent of Republican voters still believe Trump’s false claim that Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory was illegitimate, it is difficult to imagine the next two criminal cases will change their minds.

Trump is set to be indicted over his alleged role in the January 6 Capitol riot. Picture: AFP

There was another moment when the US could have moved on from Trump. It was last November, when he launched his 2024 presidential run in the wake of midterm elections in which his preferred candidates tanked and cost the Republicans control of the US Senate.

In his speech, a weakened Trump shelved his election lies, an implicit admission that winning required fighting once again for ordinary Americans rather than for himself.

But it didn’t last. The former president has since promised to pardon the criminals who invaded the Capitol, and even recorded a song with a choir of January 6 prisoners. The charges against Trump mean he is now campaigning to avoid joining them in jail.

And so, in the jury box and ultimately the ballot box, the US will have another chance to decide. Was January 6 the end of Trump, or only the beginning?

Originally published as Tom Minear: Was January 6 the end of Donald Trump or only the beginning?