Poll finds Jess Wilson is well ahead of Jacinta Allan as preferred premier

One year out from the state election, a new poll shows Opposition Leader Jess Wilson holds an impressive lead over Premier Jacinta Allan as preferred premier.

• Wilson rewards loyalty in new shadow cabinet

Opposition Leader Jess Wilson has surged to a commanding lead as Victorians’ preferred premier as Jacinta Allan’s personal approval rating continues to fall.

One year out from the 2026 state election, new Freshwater Strategy polling shows Ms Wilson holds an impressive 16 point lead over Ms Allan as preferred premier, 47 per cent to 31 per cent.

It compares to an 11 point lead former Liberal Party leader Brad Battin had over the Premier before he was forced out of the job in a party-room coup.

Jacinta Allan’s personal approval rating continues to fall. Picture: Ian Currie

In a major vindication of the coup, voters agreed that Ms Wilson would bring a fresh leadership style, represented a new generation of political leadership, would be an effective public communicator, and that her leadership would improve the Liberal Party’s appeal to undecided voters.

And one in five, or 22 per cent, of non-Coalition voters said they were more likely to vote for the Liberals under the new leadership, including 25 per cent of Greens voters and 21 per cent of Labor voters.

At the same time Ms Allan’s highly negative personal approval rating has continued to fall with a net favourability rating of -32.

Labor sources said there was growing concern that the Premier’s catastrophic personal approval rating would continue to drag the party vote down.

Freshwater Strategy research head Jordan Meyers said the results showed negative sentiment against the Allan government was now deeply entrenched among the electorate.

“On face value, voters appear to be optimistic about the change in leadership, Wilson has inherited a party from Battin that is electorally competitive, and there is a sense that Wilson may revitalise the Liberal brand, and bring fresh leadership to the party,” he said.

“Jess Wilson steps into the leadership with a political landscape that most opposition leaders could dream of.

“Deep voter pessimism about the state’s finances, an unpopular Premier, a government seen to be underperforming, and rising public anxiety about crime.

“The goal is open, now it’s up to Wilson and her team to score some goals.”

Polling shows Jess Wilson holds an impressive 16 point lead over Allan as preferred premier. Picture: Mark Stewart

The latest polling, of 1220 Victorians, was conducted between November 21 and 24, days after Ms Wilson secured the party leadership on November 18.

Since then she has tried to shift the Coalition’s focus from crime to the economy.

It has resulted in a net positive approval of +15, with only 12 per cent of voters holding an unfavourable view.

More than half of those polled, 56 per cent, said Victoria was heading in the wrong direction, while 58 per cent said the Allan government was doing a bad job.

When asked if Labor deserved re-election, just 34 per cent said yes while a majority, 53 per cent, said it was time to “give Jess Wilson and the Liberals a chance”.

Primary vote share remained steady, with the Coalition on 37 per cent compared to 30 per cent for Labor, leaving the parties split 50-50 on a two-party preferred basis. The Coalition needs to win 16 seats, and lose none of those it currently holds, to form government at the next election.

Former Liberal Party leader Brad Battin was forced out of the job in a party-room coup. Picture: Luis Enrique Ascui

Such a scenario would take a statewide swing of about 8 per cent to the Coalition.

Sources said it was aimed at galvanising unity among her colleagues and would not be a radical shake-up of the existing shadow cabinet.

“Victoria is at a crossroads and there has never been a more urgent need for change,” Ms Wilson said on Saturday.

“After 11 years of Labor, Victoria’s living standards have fallen behind, everyday life is getting harder and pride in our state has been lost.

“My team’s priorities are clear and focused: we are determined to restore hope for a better future – we will get our finances under control, end the crime crisis, deliver a world-class health system and ensure every Victorian has the best opportunity to own their own home. Every day over the next year, my team will listen to Victorians.”

Originally published as Poll finds Jess Wilson is well ahead of Jacinta Allan as preferred premier